Congress’ unruly summer recess

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

Congress is out of session with members on vacation or engaging with constituents. Normally the August recess is quiet, but this year has been radically different. We explore the current controversies and the potential impact on Utah politics.

Texas Republicans are attempting the very rare action of redrawing congressional boundaries mid-decade. Democratic Texas lawmakers fled the state to prevent a vote. Blue-state governors are threatening the same tactic. Utah could be forced into mid-decade redistricting from an upcoming court decision. What are the effects on national and local politics?

Cowley: The anticipated Texas maps will create new Hispanic Republican districts, but the real question is whether Texas should be doing this with unconventional timing. Trump and Gov. Abbott cite significant errors in the 2020 census as justification. Covid created numerous challenges during the last census. Counting immigrants living in the country illegally had an outsized impact in Texas, further skewing their numbers. Lastly, modern technology makes creating, then altering, these maps fairly easy and cheap, making a mid-decade fix less burdensome than before.

Before Democrats light torches and brandish pitchforks, keep in mind that Democrat-controlled California, Illinois and Maryland have some of the most egregiously gerrymandered maps in the country. New York’s Supreme Court found their Legislature had grossly ignored the rules when drawing lines, and continue to cross them. There are several infamously creative districts nationwide — for example, the “earmuff” in Illinois and the “lasso” in Arizona. Gerrymandering is a political tradition that isn’t exclusive to just Republicans or Democrats. Both have drawn districts that look more like ink blots than communities of interest.

Texas Democrats skipping town to avoid their duties as elected officials is cowardly but provides plenty of political theater. Districting is an intensely political act, so Democrats’ theatrics are hypocritical at best.

The pending decision from Utah’s highest court regarding redistricting could plunge Utah into the same mid-decade battle as Texas.

Pignanelli: “Stability in government is essential to national character … [and] among the chief blessings of civil society.” — James Madison, Federalist No. 37

I am not a constitutional scholar, but have read the document (many times), the Federalist Papers and other valuable treatises. Therefore, I believe when legislative bodies — Congress and state — surrender constitutional prerogatives to other branches of government or entities, they erode principles underlying our republic.

Thus I believe legislatures (including Texas) have the primary responsibility and authority for redistricting of federal and state offices. But to do so mid-decade is contrary to the spirit of our governing documents as articulated by the founders.

The Constitution creates a careful balance between an energetic government and one that assures stability. Conducting redistricting (except by court order) more than once every 10 years dramatically undermines confidence and dependability. If many states decide to redraw the boundaries every two to four years, chaos will dominate. There is a reason Texas’ dangerous path was rarely pursued in the past two centuries.

A Utah district court will soon rule on the next steps for a potential redrawing of congressional boundaries. The current national controversy will cause pressure on both sides for a partisan outcome. Next summer may bring more drama.

Congressional town hall meetings have become battlegrounds reflecting the current divisiveness in the country. Emotional outbursts, from enraged citizens or activists, are dominating such gatherings across the country. (This happened earlier in the year in Utah.) Some members are resorting to tele-town halls and other structured formats. Town halls are a longstanding tradition of our democracy, but are they becoming endangered?

Cowley: Times change and technology does along with it. People and businesses are regularly conducting important meetings virtually where even five years ago, they would have only been held in person. This evolving trend comes at a cost. People are less engaged and more distracted in virtual meetings. They are less personal, more sterile and highly censored.

I’m disappointed in the mob-like behaviors of my fellow Utahns who booed and jeered two of our hardworking members of Congress. I don’t blame elected officials for moving to a more controlled environment; I just hope this doesn’t lead to less access and accountability to constituents. If this becomes the norm, it will be harder to return to more authentic, in-person interactions.

Pignanelli: The town hall meeting is an American activity developed long before the republic was established. It is crushing to admit this important interchange between elected officials and voters is a victim to professional political tactics. Their goal of gathering clips for the media effectively prevents earnest audience members from engaging and influencing.

As an elected official, I conducted such meetings and found them invigorating and informative. Attendees came to learn or to disagree, but in a manner that allowed fellow participants to understand the discussion.

Artificial intelligence cannot save the town hall meetings, so the alternative — through electronic means or targeted groups — will become a mainstay in the near future.

Will this summertime partisan wrangling prevent the necessary compromises to avoid a government shutdown when Congress reconvenes next month?

Cowley: A looming shutdown used to seem a lot more ominous, but is overplayed. If Democrats try to drag it out too long, it will only work against their long-term goals, yet they will try.

Pignanelli: The unanticipated Texas redistricting will harden partisan differences. Consequently, a government shutdown is likely in October.

Do Utahns trust their institutions?

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

New polls and national special interest groups are raising issues about Utah politics. Whether you love the surveys or hate them, we love to talk about them.

A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll asked voters about their respect for institutions. An average of 20% of respondents had zero confidence in the Utah Legislature, the governor, the U.S. Supreme Court and the Utah Supreme Court. Many Democrats showed no affection for the Legislature (47%) or Congress (57%). Republicans expressed higher levels of confidence in these institutions, but not all by resounding margins. Is this lack of trust, especially by Democrats, worrisome?

Cowley: Watergate, the Kennedy assassination, Epstein Files and COVID vaccine lies have all contributed to an overall erosion of trust in government. History has shown that the government has repeatedly lied to its citizens, and after enough betrayals, it is hard for many to believe in the ideal of a government “for the people.”

Utah Republicans were the most trusting of state institutions, and for good reason. Utah continually wins awards for having the best-managed state. Our economy is strong, and our communities are safe. The Republican-led Legislature consistently advances policies that their Republican constituents voted for; thus, satisfaction is higher.

Both Democrats and Republicans expressed the least amount of trust in Congress — a time-honored tradition for Utahns, considering the rocky relationship between our state’s founders and the feds.

It’s always the losing team that has the most criticism for the refs. Being a super minority in Utah, Democrats don’t get many wins, but perhaps they should redefine victory. Stop wasting effort trying to restore Roe v. Wade and focus on policies that benefit blue-collar workers.

Pignanelli: ”American democracy is not on the verge of disappearing. Americans are much deeper than the sum of their political beliefs ” — Deseret News Editorial Board

For more than 400 years, immigrants to this country left their homeland frustrated with religious, economic or government institutions. Native Americans, Black Americans and descendants of our state’s pioneer founders have legitimate historic issues with similar entities on this continent. Thus, Americans and Utahns are bred with some distrust for authority.

This emotion is especially exemplified by the Democrats’ confusing lower approval rating of the Utah Supreme Court, which recently delivered several setbacks to the Legislature (whom the minority party apparently does not trust).

But dismissive comments about the government do not accurately reflect deeply held beliefs. Participation in elections is relatively high. Every year, I witness thousands of people at the State Capitol protesting, speaking in committees, and interacting with lawmakers. Citizens inundate congressional offices with emails and attend town hall meetings. If there was no confidence, they would not engage with such vigor.

Many pundits opine that this lack of confidence is a threat to democracy. However, as the editorial board of this paper wisely stated, such allegations are unfounded. We are born and bred to challenge — and simultaneously engage with — our institutions.

The same poll indicated that 25% of GOP voters had no confidence in universities nationwide. Yet Utah Republicans and Democrats reported great respect for the Utah higher education system, with almost 60%. What does this say about Utah’s colleges and universities?

Cowley: Utah’s colleges and universities outpace their out-of-state cohorts on ROI and culture. If survey respondents’ collegiate experiences were anything like mine, they remember it as transformative. Attending Utah State University was one of the best decisions I ever made. There is still significant work to be done to modernize degree offerings, eliminate woke bias and make college affordable again, but Utah is on the right track.

Pignanelli: Throughout the country, large public and elite universities are plagued with controversies, which explains the discomfort. In Utah, the face of the higher education system is Taylor Randall, president of the University of Utah. His persona is especially exemplified as several other institutions have been without observable leadership.

Randall effectively addressed DEI issues raised at the Legislature and utilized the required re-allocation of funds to promote effective instruction. A native Utahn, he understands how to communicate and work with government, political, business and religious organizations. His success is benefiting the entire state system. Randall’s colleagues across the country would be astute to seek his guidance.

A national political action committee, “Save America,” will partner with the local lefty Elevate Utah PAC to spend at least $20,000 against Republican incumbent lawmakers. Will this make a difference in 2026?

Cowley: Out-of-state and out-of-touch Democrats likely saw the Utah Education Association’s highly successful signature-gathering efforts as a misguided sign that Utah is turning blue. It’s not.

$20,000 spread across 10 races intended to unseat incumbents is about as impactful as spilling a thimbleful of water in Moab. My compliments to their PR team for garnering coverage for this announcement, especially since many of those incumbents have wisely been using this as an opportunity to fundraise. Their grand scheme has backfired.

Pignanelli: Elevate Utah shrewdly captured valuable publicity, which promoted their causes. Many companies, organizations and special interest groups (on the left and right) spend much more on state races. The PAC may not spend anything significant, but it achieved impressive PR results through artful messaging. Such is politics.

Who is enduring the political heatwave?

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

The summer of 2025 is predicted to be among the hottest seasons in modern history — meteorologically and politically. This is causing internal strife within the parties. We explore who is weathering or flourishing in this weather.

Prolonged Epstein drama, unresolved wars, tumultuous tariff negotiations, deportation tactics and more are plaguing the Trump administration and Republicans. Yet, a Wall Street Journal poll shows that Trump’s approval ratings remain stagnant. Are Trump and the GOP invincible?

COWLEY: If an assassin’s bullet couldn’t bring Trump down, neither can a few political setbacks. Bad news just doesn’t stick to him. One reason, I believe, is that the American public is tired of politicians’ empty promises and do-nothing leaders. Even when things don’t go according to plan, Trump supporters are willing to stick by him because they are grateful he is at least trying to do something — akin to Theodore Roosevelt’s “Man in the Arena.”

Yet, enough self-inflicted faux pas will eventually start to wear down Trump’s credibility. Much like the boy who cried wolf, supporters might be able to get past his about-face on the Epstein files, but Trump better be darn sure about his accusations against Obama, or his credibility, which is already hanging on by a thread, will be shot.

PIGNANELLI: “You don’t always have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun the guy next to you. So, that’s pretty clear in politics.” — Former RNC Chair Reince Priebus.

Hard-core rules of politics guided humans for millennia and will continue to do so despite artificial intelligence. Trump and Republicans are following two fundamental principles: demonstrating strength and taking action rather than doing nothing. Despite what our species may think of the persons fomenting change, many are attracted to such energy.

The GOP is benefiting especially because the opposition is weak (more on that below). So far, the stock market and significant portions of the economy have adapted to the stop-and-start actions of Trump. The big, beautiful bill has problems, but it signals momentum.

Polling experts now claim that 40% is the new 50% in terms of positive approval because the country is divided. This dynamic, along with Trump’s solid support in his party, is contributing to this defense against controversies.

Another rule of politics is that no political faction is invincible forever. However, the GOP’s favorability seems durable for some time.

The same WSJ poll shows 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, noting a “far weaker assessment than voters give to either President Trump or the Republican Party.” Newsweek conducted a hypothetical survey of the 2028 presidential match-up with JD Vance dominating the field of Democrats and Kamala Harris gaining the most support among her party. What does this mean for the future of the Democratic Party?

COWLEY: The survey shows 63% of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably. That is a pretty deep hole to dig out of, especially when you consider only a measly 8% view the Democrats “very favorably,” compared to 19% for Republicans.

Hoping and praying Trump’s popularity fades isn’t a winning strategy. Democrats have been gifted countless opportunities in the current political climate and haven’t capitalized on any of them. Whoever the Democratic nominee will be needs to throw out the current playbook, because it simply isn’t working. California Gov. Gavin Newsom seems the most willing to do just that. He’s launched a review of California’s COVID response and acknowledges the very obvious truth that males competing in women’s sports have a biological advantage. Newsom has charisma, patriotism, optimism and likeability — all traits Harris struggles with. He’s also following Trump’s playbook, making the rounds on bro-style podcasts. Given time, his popularity is likely to rise.

PIGNANELLI: Another key rule of politics is that you have to fight something with something. The Democrats don’t have something (a progressive ideology isn’t working). The New York Times published an early obituary for the party (authored by Yale professor Daniel Martinez HoSang), explaining the drift of minorities to Republicans. A restructuring of society, combined with concerns for the economy and public safety shared by people of all colors, eroded the Democratic Party base.

For over two decades in this column, I have criticized politicians on the right and left extremes for their policies. Yet, I never accused them of treason, because such would be a betrayal of American principles. Barack Obama is a decent individual who is good to his family and did what he thought best for this country. A strong, loyal opposition is needed to push back forcefully against outrageous and dangerous accusations that he is a traitor. This should be enough incentive for Democrats to develop a new voice and practical ideology.

Will these trends have any impact on Utah elections and politics?

COWLEY: Utahns are accustomed to complete and total Republican domination, but I would be curious to see a Utah-specific poll of Vance’s approval. Will he fare better than Trump in the Beehive State, who has historically underperformed, or will the stain of Vance’s predecessor transfer to him?

PIGNANELLI: In Utah general elections, it’s always about the swing districts. If Republicans maintain their resilience, Democrats will face difficulty gaining in these contests. However, a blue wave, fueled by a struggling economy and other GOP controversies, will bolster those efforts.

Our suggested parade floats for Utah politicians and others

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.
This week, we celebrate Pioneer Day, a unique Utah holiday that honors all Utahns who were, or are currently, pioneers in various ways. While the rest of the country is at work, most of our citizens will be attending parades, picnics, rodeos and fireworks as a way to acknowledge the fantastic people who built the greatest place on Earth to live.

The famous parade through downtown Salt Lake City remains a key feature of this historic celebration, which honors traditional virtues, even if our ancestors were not part of the original pioneer company crossing the plains. Political themes are banned in the Days of ’47 parade, but we can’t help but envision what parade floats politicos and others would create.

Gov. Spencer Cox: Riding on a flatbed truck with a waterfall slip and slide, preceded by a huge banner proclaiming, “Please pray for rain and ignore the cynics. It worked the last time.”Sen. Mike Lee: Dressed in a cowboy outfit, holding a banner with friends stating, “Proud to bring together local ranchers, hunters and environmentalists … to oppose my public lands bill.”

Public Service Commission: Walking together, tossing out rock-hard salt water taffy to parade observers and holding a banner: “Enjoy the treats, either by eating them or throwing them at the Rocky Mountain Power float.”

Rocky Mountain Power Execs: Dressed as Doc Brown from “Back to the Future,” driving a DeLorean, desperately trying to create enough gigawatts to meet Utah’s growing need for power, with the sign “You may be mad, but you need us.”

NPR and PBS: They couldn’t afford a float this year, but staff will walk the parade route, shaking a tin cup, asking for donations, shouting, “Please remember Big Bird and Mr. Rogers.”

Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson: Playing the role of a Pony Express rider, Utah’s chief election officer will deliver municipal primary election ballots along the route while assuring voters that by-mail elections are safe and secure. (Your authors would like to remind readers that ballots arrive this week.)

Elon Musk: Unhappy with last year’s parade, he will be organizing his own on July 25th in Wendover.

Sen. John Curtis: Dressed as a warrior holding a spear, shouting, “I’m leading the charge on Social Security reform. Millennials and Gen Zers, you’re welcome!”

Utah Congressional Delegation — Burgess Owens, Blake Moore, Celeste Maloy and Mike Kennedy: Walking down the parade route, locking arms, while holding a banner: “We love the Big Beautiful Bill. Something for everyone and Trump leaves us alone.”

Canadians in Utah: Will be sitting on a large float, with a large loudspeaker shouting the message: “Keep the apologies coming, and we will continue the maple syrup flowing.”

Utah Supreme Court Justices: In their robes, carrying a banner: “Proud to be a constitutionally protected third branch of government … just saying.”

Utah Senate President Stuart Adams: In an effort to address Utah’s growing energy concerns, President Adams will be dressed as the wizard of Menlo Park, Thomas Edison, atop a small cell nuclear reactor, proclaiming, “Let there be light!”

Speaker Mike Schultz: Portraying a wagon boss while donning a 10-gallon hat, he’ll be driving a chuck wagon equally yoked with representatives from Utah’s colleges and universities, each pulling their weight.
Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall: Eagerly waves to passersby aboard a brightly embellished rainbow flag float — the official float of Salt Lake City.

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: Wearing a deep blue dress atop a bright red float with the banner, “Providing the needed liberal voice in the ocean of conservatives.”

Brad Wilson, Olympic Committee Chairman: Atop a medal ceremony podium, shouting, “Make Winter Olympics Great Again!”

Ryan Smith: Riding a life-size animatronic mammoth in celebration of the Utah Hockey Club’s official mascot, while proclaiming, “Mammoths are cooler than Yetis, right!?”

Sen. Dan McCay and Rep. Trevor Lee: Both will be patrolling the parade route vigilantly on the lookout for any banners that do not conform to legislative standards, keeping an eye out for flags with extra colors, unauthorized stripes or the year “1847” inscribed on them.

Pam Bondi: Making an unexpected appearance in Utah’s celebration will be dressed as a magician, showing observers a folder labeled “Epstein Files: Classified” and saying, “Now you see them, now you don’t!”

Republican Party leadership: Will be burning candidate signature packets with “Braveheart” blue-painted faces, ready to charge up the hill and fight to the death to restore the caucus/convention-only system, but aren’t exactly sure how to go about it.

Democratic Party leadership: A smaller entry as compared to their Republican colleagues, they proudly march down State Street holding a banner saying, “Utah Democrats have a proud legacy. Please ignore Zohran Mamdani.”

Cowley & Pignanelli: Renae will ably ride her favorite steed in full rodeo regalia. Frank will perform his traditional function: walking behind the parade, scooping the poop.

The political climate is warming

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

The political climate is consistently changing and often unpredictable. This includes the ongoing fissures in the Democratic party, new cracks inside MAGA Republicans and the possibility of a new party. We review these intriguing events.

With his wealth, eccentric personality and leadership of 21st-century technologies (electric cars, modern rockets and social media platforms), Elon Musk’s musing on developing an alternative political party has captured much attention. This effort has been tried many times and failed, so is it doable — even for a billionaire?

Cowley: The new pet project of the world’s wealthiest man has the consultant class jumping for joy. Although not without some campaign credibility (Elon’s America PAC successfully ran Trump’s ground game in 2024), creating a viable third party, let alone qualifying for the ballot in various states, is about as difficult as launching rockets into space.

I’m unconvinced that voters actually want a new party; rather, their initial support for Elon’s effort demonstrates their frustration with the vitriol between both mainstream parties.

Displaced Democrats like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard seem to have found a home with MAGA, but Elon must recruit candidates with star power if his new party is to stand a chance.

Pignanelli: “Third-party politics has always had an element of romance.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

Knowledgeable experts quickly dismiss a third party, because a new alternative entrant has not succeeded since the 1850s. The attempts made gained notoriety but little else. Democrats and Republicans are enduring internal strife, but dominate the election process with thousands of local, state and federal elected officials. Thus, history suggests that there is little traction for Musk’s proposal.

However, history also reveals that our current political and social environment is ripe for a new movement. I recall the Ross Perot phenomenon, which was driven by extreme dissatisfaction with both parties — a situation that exists today. Progressives guide the ideology of Democrats, and MAGA controls Republican actions, which explains the expansion of independent voters, as recent polls indicate.

The strongest argument against third parties is their inability to effectively fundraise, mobilize voters and disseminate their messaging. These concerns are obliterated by 21st-century technology (as evidenced by the elections of Donald Trump, the New York mayoral contest, etc.). Retail politics continues to evolve, benefiting upstarts.

Unless either party adjusts its trajectory within the next 10 years, a strong alternative is likely to emerge.

Democratic Socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani defied expectations and captured the Democratic nomination for New York mayor. This victory for progressives is deepening antagonisms with moderates nationwide. MAGA true believers are openly condemning high-level Trump administration officials for recent actions deflating conspiracy theories and confusing tariff policies. Are these divisions just minor wrinkles or an internal civil war?

Cowley: I am more confused than ever about what the real story is behind Jeffrey Epstein. What I do know is someone in the Trump administration is lying. Fractures among supporters aren’t just about who is on the list, if it exists, or how Epstein died. It’s a litmus test for the Trump White House whether they really will be the most transparent administration or are beholden to political elites and the deep state. Honesty is not just the best policy; it is a requirement for MAGA supporters.

Tariffs generated $27 billion in revenue in June alone. This isn’t the ultimate goal of tariffs, but will help ease new deficits created in the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Long term, Trump tariffs are intended to lessen our reliance on foreign goods by increasing domestic manufacturing. Should this policy succeed, we will see even greater revenues through job growth, sales tax, etc. Unfortunately, vast economic shifts like this take time to come to fruition, perhaps longer than what remains of Trump’s term in office.

I can’t decide if Zohran Mamdani is wildly naive or deeply sinister, but New York voters have fallen victim to his rage-baiting. Just as Biden attempted to buy off voters with false promises of canceling student loan debt, Mamdani is exploiting people’s financial hardships by offering an “easy government fix” for complex problems. Market manipulation and government-run grocery stores are a dangerous step towards socialism.

Pignanelli: The MAGA soldiers grumble but have nowhere else to go. The New York mayor’s race documents Democrats’ ongoing problems. Left-wing progressives control the ideology and passion, while the older officials waste resources on outdated strategies to bolster worn-out candidates. This is a lopsided boxing match.

Will any of the struggles have an impact on Utah politics?

Cowley: The devil is in the details. Utah voters like to shake things up, yet Elon will need viable candidates if his new party is going to gain any traction.

Utah has been more reluctant to support Trump than other red states, but it’s unlikely that Epstein espionage will be the issue that turns Utah blue. At best, it might be fodder for voters to side-eye future Trump-endorsed candidates.

Pignanelli: Utah is attracted to alternative candidates. Theodore Roosevelt’s Bull Moose party received over 20% in 1912, and Ross Perot placed second in the 1992 race with 27%. Independent Evan McMullin captured 21.5% percent in his 2016 presidential bid and 42.7% as a Senate candidate. Third-party activists should do more than just fly over Utah, and spend time here.

Are Utah women the new political force?

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

Political operatives enjoy identifying and predicting trends in voters’ behavior. We examine new information regarding a dynamic shift and whether recent congressional action could lead to emerging trends.

The Utah State University “Utah Women & Leadership Project” reported on voting patterns in Utah. In 2006, Utah ranked 51st in the nation, with 36.8% of female voters participating; by 2024, it had risen to 67.3%, ranking 29th nationally. Also noted was that Utah leads the country with volunteer and community services, predominantly led by women. How will this affect politics?

COWLEY: Utah has a rich history of women participating in politics, from Seraph Young being the first woman in the United States to vote, to Kanab being one of the first all-women-led cities, to Martha Hughes Cannon, who, among her many accolades, became Utah’s first female state senator by defeating her husband.

I’m grateful my beloved USU conducted this rigorous study. The evidence sustains that voters of the fairer sex are an important demographic, but are far from homogeneous in political preferences. One’s political values cannot be distilled down to gender alone. Religion, community, ethnicity and age are all contributing factors.

There are some obvious explanations for the ebbs and flows of female voter turnout in Utah. The 2012 bump was evidence of enthusiasm for Utah’s adopted son, Mitt Romney, running for president. In 2016, Utah men and women turned out in droves to support Evan McMullin, demonstrating our willingness to buck two-party norms.

Utah embodies the spirit of “neighbor helping neighbor.” The study’s findings on service are not surprising and a source of immense pride for my fellow stateswomen.

PIGNANELLI: “It was we, the people; not we, the white male citizens; nor yet we, the male citizens; but we, the whole people, who formed the Union.” — Susan B. Anthony

A half-century of political involvement has provided me with knowledge that women voters, elected officials and appointed officials may be fewer in number, but have an equal — and often greater — impact than their male counterparts.

This understanding is also derived from my mother, a three-term Holladay City Councilmember; my wife, a city manager, Utah director of administrative services and state tax commissioner; my strong, opinionated daughter, sisters and business partner; etc.

Most of the powerful trade and nonprofit government relations organizations are led or strongly influenced by women. Their impact on the public policy process is apparent during the legislative session, in county and city meetings, and throughout various agencies.

According to the surveys, Utah women’s highest priorities are affordable housing, civility among elected officials and inflation. Regardless of gender and political affiliation, all candidates should take note of this significant expansion of the electorate and their needs.

In the latest poll from the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics conducted by HarrisX, the results suggest that Trump enjoys greater support among men than women in Utah. Will the “Big Beautiful Bill” impact Utah voters, especially women?

COWLEY: Women have been understandably repulsed by Trump’s brash manner and moral shortcomings. Although in 2024, women nationally supported Trump by a larger margin, Utah women were less willing to overlook his character defects.

Women primarily manage the household budget. They are on the frontlines when egg prices rise, inflation surges and mortgage rates shoot through the roof. As such, Trump’s signature fiscal bill is of great importance to women. There are numerous provisions I expect budget-conscious women will appreciate, including increasing state and local tax deductions, increasing the child tax credit, and no tax on tips.

PIGNANELLI: According to a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 42% of Americans opposed the bill and 23% supported it, but 34% had no opinion. This implies there is a blank slate and an opportunity for either party. However, the spin doctors must avoid patronizing messaging that offends women. The parties that construct the best case will have the most influence.

Does partisanship change in Utah because of women or Trump’s budget bill?

COWLEY: Women are not monolithic in their political priorities. Just as some dislike the bill for imposing work requirements on select Medicaid recipients, others are rejoicing over the 2017 tax cuts becoming permanent. It’s unlikely this singular bill will shift political tides in Utah.

The budget bill will likely be old news by the time midterms roll around, but if they play their cards right, it could provide opportunities for Democrats as it adds $3.4 trillion to federal deficits over the next ten years. Even as a conservative, I’m gravely concerned this unpaid bill will be left to our children, yet, given the current state of dysfunction in the Democratic Party, it is unlikely they can propose a better alternative.

Although I think Elon Musk’s attempt to form a new party is idiotic, misguided and will only result in the Ross Perot-ing of swing elections, I am not counting out the ability of the world’s richest man to be a disrupter, nor Utahns’ historical willingness to support third-party candidates.

PIGNANELLI: National pundits believe the recent legislation helps Democrats to salvage their electoral chances. However, it is unclear how changes to Medicaid alter the trajectory of elections. If the bill is viewed in conjunction with other actions, as supporting or hindering the priorities of Utah women, the result could be fluctuations in the usual outcomes.

Is our nation still worthy of celebration this Independence Day?

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

This weekend, we celebrate the founding of our republic 249 years ago. On July 2, 1776, the Continental Congress proclaimed independence, and two days later, adopted the Declaration of Independence. Since then, our nation has endured much and today faces severe challenges. Your columnists report on the health of the good old USA as we approach the Semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) celebrations.

A recent Marist poll revealed 76% of Americans believe there is a serious threat to the future of U.S. democracy when considering the issues that divide the nation. This astounding result aligns with similar surveys conducted in prior years. Is the country, and our constitutional principles, in jeopardy? Should we be celebrating or grieving this Independence Day?

Cowley: Many claim our nation is more divisive than ever. I tend to disagree, as we have not had a civil war since 1865, no vice president has committed murder in a duel since 1804, and no U.S. Senator has been nearly caned to death on the senate floor since 1856.

The biggest change, for better or worse, is technology. No longer are Americans solely reliant on a handful of media outlets with a monopoly on the happenings of government. Everyone has a camera in their pocket and can share information across the globe in seconds. Rather than restricted access to information, we now have an overabundance of it. The burden we now bear is filtering what is real and what is not. This has become exacerbated with the emergence of AI. I’m grateful to live in the information age, but am not naive enough to ignore the dangers that accompany it.

America’s future is bright, but we are not without significant obstacles to overcome. The biggest threat to our democracy is our skyrocketing debt. Our nation’s leaders need to show the courage their predecessors lacked and stop spending more than they have. This will secure our freedoms for another 250 years.

Pignanelli: ”There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured with what is right in America.” — Former President Bill Clinton

Fifty years ago this summer, I spent my time watching “Jaws” multiple times. However, 1975 was a challenging time for this country, as inflation surged to 10%, the federal deficit reached an all-time high and domestic terrorism was on the rise. There were two assassination attempts on President Gerald Ford. Also, Ford assumed the presidency because Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew had resigned in disgrace several years earlier. The South Vietnamese government was collapsing, and foreign adversaries were agitating against us. Worst of all, the most popular song was “Love Will Keep Us Together” by Captain & Tennille.

Despite these challenges, the country was preparing with enthusiasm for the 1976 Bicentennial, featuring public works programs, entertainment activities and numerous commemorations.

Since then, our country has experienced significant economic and social growth, and continues to be a global superpower. But there is only a nominal mention of the anniversary next year, which is disappointing. The principles underlying our constitution and nation are as strong today as they were in 1975 and before. Democracy among our 300 million citizens is messy, frustrating and successful. There is much to celebrate this week, in preparation for next year.

Recent events demonstrate the many geopolitical challenges our country faces. Should we enhance or reduce military and economic influence? Is America still the world’s beacon of hope?

Cowley: As a millennial, I watched the 9/11 attacks unfold from my junior high classrooms. I lived through decades-long wars in the Middle East, survived two recessions and a global pandemic, and endured far too many seasons of Keeping up With the Kardashians. My generation has been through a lot and is gravely concerned that we are now standing on the precipice of World War III.

It is the failure of previous administrations that has allowed the BRICS alliance to flourish. A shared foe has a unique way of bringing countries together. Prolonged strife has been allowed to fester between the U.S. and these foreign countries, strengthening their bonds together and their ire against us. The U.S. still has the strongest economy in the world. Let’s use it and flex our economic muscles more and our military might less.

Pignanelli: Warfare secured our independence. Since the 1801 Barbary War, the United States has reluctantly engaged, with economic and military weapons, against adversaries that threaten allies and our ultimate well-being. This must continue.

Immigration is an enduring controversy because our economic and lifestyle opportunities, along with the abundance of liberty, provide hope to the world.

Why should Utahns, especially, observe this July 4 anniversary with joy and pride?

Cowley: Utahns are the epitome of the American pioneering spirit and have much to be grateful for — a strong economy, great neighbors and millions of acres of pristine wilderness to enjoy during the golden days of summer.

I will be celebrating our nation’s birthday the best way I know how: competing in the Oakley and West Jordan rodeos.

Pignanelli: The issues facing our state are growth — people want to stay or move here. Economic prosperity, vibrant democracy and wonderful lifestyles are great reasons for celebration.

Will voters repeal law that outlaws collective bargaining for public employees?

By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli

We explain why political pundits are already speculating about the actions lawmakers must take soon in anticipation of elections 18 months away.

Employee associations and unions collected an overwhelming number of signatures to place HB 267 (which prohibits collective bargaining for government employees) on the ballot for repeal. A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey shows 36% of registered voters are in favor of the referendum to rescind the legislation, 32% are against, and 31% are undecided. What can be ascertained from these results?

COWLEY: With voters divided into almost perfect thirds, neither proponents nor opponents of the referendum have proven their case yet. Unions gathered an undeniably impressive 320,000 signatures, but the volume of signatures is not a direct correlation to their level of support. Many people were likely persuaded by the argument that signing simply puts the matter on the ballot for all Utah voters to weigh in on — a compelling argument, regardless of the issue being referred.

If this moves to the ballot, and it’s still a big “if” in my mind, it will result in the most money spent yet on a ballot measure in Utah. Unions will have to explain why they support union bosses receiving public employee benefits and taxpayer-funded retirements. Supporters of the bill are going to have to draw a distinction between the teachers in their kids’ classrooms that they know and love, versus UEA leadership and their support of a radical liberal agenda.

PIGNANELLI: “He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”— Sun Tzu Election and public affairs campaigns utilize strategies similar to those employed in military actions. (Of course, armed combatants confront horrendous challenges.) The shrewdest generals choose their battleground and when to fight. Cagey political warriors attempt similar planning.

The contest fostered by the collective bargaining referendum has devolved into a proxy battle between large national special interest organizations. The survey results will compel these well-funded entities to invest substantial resources. Further, firefighters, police officers, and teachers will be reaching out to their neighbors and friends to support the referendum. This promises a horrific battle.

The survey suggests that if the Legislature avoids this contentious issue (by repealing the law), few will object.

Political stirrings extend beyond collective bargaining. Major issues include: The Utah Fits All scholarship in jeopardy pending an appeal; judicial reform percolating, high-profile court matters on redistricting, and the Legislature’s hope for another shot at Amendment D. How do all of these issues impact one another?

COWLEY: If all of these issues become protracted battles, we could see a very crowded ballot in 2026. My prediction: several will be resolved before ballots are printed.

Should the Utah Fits All Scholarship ruling be upheld, other programs like dual-immersion and the Carson Smith Scholarship may be in jeopardy, prompting the Legislature to run a constitutional question clarifying educational funding.

Controversy surrounds several judges. Rep. Angela Romero joined Speaker Schultz in calling for 7th District Judge Don Torgerson to resign for comments he made at the end of a sentencing hearing in a felony child sexual exploitation case in Grand County. Any resulting judicial system reform is unlikely to require a ballot question; but will garner significant attention during the 2026 General Session.

Amendment D is the most likely to appear on the 2026 ballot. The Legislature is adamant about clarifying or reversing the Supreme Court’s ruling, which prohibits them from changing citizen initiatives or referenda in perpetuity. Without taking this issue to the voters, the ruling will result in initiatives becoming forever laws that can only be updated through another costly and difficult initiative.

In the unlikely event that all or most of these appear on the ballot, they will detract from one another. Prioritization and prudence are recommended if any of these is to succeed.

PIGNANELLI: Military history documents that fighting a multi-front war is expensive and requires prioritization to achieve any success. For GOP officials, the most critical target of their efforts is a ballot proposition in 2026 that would adjust the Constitution to allow amendments to successful initiatives. To attract voter approval, lawmakers will need to circumvent the collective bargaining referendum and adopt a strategic approach to other controversies.

All these matters will influence each other, but to what extent will be determined by where lawmakers place their focus. Such is political warfare.

November 2026 is a long way off. What, if anything, will happen on these matters before then?

COWLEY: The Legislature and unions will negotiate, seeking a compromise on repeal and replace. Cox intends to place the referendum on the 2026 ballot, yet many legislators will not want to run their reelection campaigns alongside this issue. It is only logical that the Legislature will consider repealing the law to avoid further fallout, as they did with tax reform. Should negotiations fail, replacing the law will be tricky without Amendment D clarification.

I’m optimistic Attorney General Derek Brown will be successful in winning the Utah Fits All Scholarship appeal, avoiding a ballot battle.

PIGNANELLI: Early next year, lawmakers will begin garnering support for the constitutional amendment that allows them to amend initiatives. Their success will require an intensive, comprehensive strategy. Other issues will likely be solved or held until 2027.

The unknown is the timing and outcome of the Planned Parenthood case, which could impact electioneering activities.