The political climate is warming
By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli
Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.
The political climate is consistently changing and often unpredictable. This includes the ongoing fissures in the Democratic party, new cracks inside MAGA Republicans and the possibility of a new party. We review these intriguing events.
With his wealth, eccentric personality and leadership of 21st-century technologies (electric cars, modern rockets and social media platforms), Elon Musk’s musing on developing an alternative political party has captured much attention. This effort has been tried many times and failed, so is it doable — even for a billionaire?
Cowley: The new pet project of the world’s wealthiest man has the consultant class jumping for joy. Although not without some campaign credibility (Elon’s America PAC successfully ran Trump’s ground game in 2024), creating a viable third party, let alone qualifying for the ballot in various states, is about as difficult as launching rockets into space.
I’m unconvinced that voters actually want a new party; rather, their initial support for Elon’s effort demonstrates their frustration with the vitriol between both mainstream parties.
Displaced Democrats like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard seem to have found a home with MAGA, but Elon must recruit candidates with star power if his new party is to stand a chance.
Pignanelli: “Third-party politics has always had an element of romance.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
Knowledgeable experts quickly dismiss a third party, because a new alternative entrant has not succeeded since the 1850s. The attempts made gained notoriety but little else. Democrats and Republicans are enduring internal strife, but dominate the election process with thousands of local, state and federal elected officials. Thus, history suggests that there is little traction for Musk’s proposal.
However, history also reveals that our current political and social environment is ripe for a new movement. I recall the Ross Perot phenomenon, which was driven by extreme dissatisfaction with both parties — a situation that exists today. Progressives guide the ideology of Democrats, and MAGA controls Republican actions, which explains the expansion of independent voters, as recent polls indicate.
The strongest argument against third parties is their inability to effectively fundraise, mobilize voters and disseminate their messaging. These concerns are obliterated by 21st-century technology (as evidenced by the elections of Donald Trump, the New York mayoral contest, etc.). Retail politics continues to evolve, benefiting upstarts.
Unless either party adjusts its trajectory within the next 10 years, a strong alternative is likely to emerge.
Democratic Socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani defied expectations and captured the Democratic nomination for New York mayor. This victory for progressives is deepening antagonisms with moderates nationwide. MAGA true believers are openly condemning high-level Trump administration officials for recent actions deflating conspiracy theories and confusing tariff policies. Are these divisions just minor wrinkles or an internal civil war?
Cowley: I am more confused than ever about what the real story is behind Jeffrey Epstein. What I do know is someone in the Trump administration is lying. Fractures among supporters aren’t just about who is on the list, if it exists, or how Epstein died. It’s a litmus test for the Trump White House whether they really will be the most transparent administration or are beholden to political elites and the deep state. Honesty is not just the best policy; it is a requirement for MAGA supporters.
Tariffs generated $27 billion in revenue in June alone. This isn’t the ultimate goal of tariffs, but will help ease new deficits created in the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Long term, Trump tariffs are intended to lessen our reliance on foreign goods by increasing domestic manufacturing. Should this policy succeed, we will see even greater revenues through job growth, sales tax, etc. Unfortunately, vast economic shifts like this take time to come to fruition, perhaps longer than what remains of Trump’s term in office.
I can’t decide if Zohran Mamdani is wildly naive or deeply sinister, but New York voters have fallen victim to his rage-baiting. Just as Biden attempted to buy off voters with false promises of canceling student loan debt, Mamdani is exploiting people’s financial hardships by offering an “easy government fix” for complex problems. Market manipulation and government-run grocery stores are a dangerous step towards socialism.
Pignanelli: The MAGA soldiers grumble but have nowhere else to go. The New York mayor’s race documents Democrats’ ongoing problems. Left-wing progressives control the ideology and passion, while the older officials waste resources on outdated strategies to bolster worn-out candidates. This is a lopsided boxing match.
Will any of the struggles have an impact on Utah politics?
Cowley: The devil is in the details. Utah voters like to shake things up, yet Elon will need viable candidates if his new party is going to gain any traction.
Utah has been more reluctant to support Trump than other red states, but it’s unlikely that Epstein espionage will be the issue that turns Utah blue. At best, it might be fodder for voters to side-eye future Trump-endorsed candidates.
Pignanelli: Utah is attracted to alternative candidates. Theodore Roosevelt’s Bull Moose party received over 20% in 1912, and Ross Perot placed second in the 1992 race with 27%. Independent Evan McMullin captured 21.5% percent in his 2016 presidential bid and 42.7% as a Senate candidate. Third-party activists should do more than just fly over Utah, and spend time here.