Who is enduring the political heatwave?
By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli
Renae is a Republican, political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.
The summer of 2025 is predicted to be among the hottest seasons in modern history — meteorologically and politically. This is causing internal strife within the parties. We explore who is weathering or flourishing in this weather.
Prolonged Epstein drama, unresolved wars, tumultuous tariff negotiations, deportation tactics and more are plaguing the Trump administration and Republicans. Yet, a Wall Street Journal poll shows that Trump’s approval ratings remain stagnant. Are Trump and the GOP invincible?
COWLEY: If an assassin’s bullet couldn’t bring Trump down, neither can a few political setbacks. Bad news just doesn’t stick to him. One reason, I believe, is that the American public is tired of politicians’ empty promises and do-nothing leaders. Even when things don’t go according to plan, Trump supporters are willing to stick by him because they are grateful he is at least trying to do something — akin to Theodore Roosevelt’s “Man in the Arena.”
Yet, enough self-inflicted faux pas will eventually start to wear down Trump’s credibility. Much like the boy who cried wolf, supporters might be able to get past his about-face on the Epstein files, but Trump better be darn sure about his accusations against Obama, or his credibility, which is already hanging on by a thread, will be shot.
PIGNANELLI: “You don’t always have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun the guy next to you. So, that’s pretty clear in politics.” — Former RNC Chair Reince Priebus.
Hard-core rules of politics guided humans for millennia and will continue to do so despite artificial intelligence. Trump and Republicans are following two fundamental principles: demonstrating strength and taking action rather than doing nothing. Despite what our species may think of the persons fomenting change, many are attracted to such energy.
The GOP is benefiting especially because the opposition is weak (more on that below). So far, the stock market and significant portions of the economy have adapted to the stop-and-start actions of Trump. The big, beautiful bill has problems, but it signals momentum.
Polling experts now claim that 40% is the new 50% in terms of positive approval because the country is divided. This dynamic, along with Trump’s solid support in his party, is contributing to this defense against controversies.
Another rule of politics is that no political faction is invincible forever. However, the GOP’s favorability seems durable for some time.
The same WSJ poll shows 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, noting a “far weaker assessment than voters give to either President Trump or the Republican Party.” Newsweek conducted a hypothetical survey of the 2028 presidential match-up with JD Vance dominating the field of Democrats and Kamala Harris gaining the most support among her party. What does this mean for the future of the Democratic Party?
COWLEY: The survey shows 63% of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably. That is a pretty deep hole to dig out of, especially when you consider only a measly 8% view the Democrats “very favorably,” compared to 19% for Republicans.
Hoping and praying Trump’s popularity fades isn’t a winning strategy. Democrats have been gifted countless opportunities in the current political climate and haven’t capitalized on any of them. Whoever the Democratic nominee will be needs to throw out the current playbook, because it simply isn’t working. California Gov. Gavin Newsom seems the most willing to do just that. He’s launched a review of California’s COVID response and acknowledges the very obvious truth that males competing in women’s sports have a biological advantage. Newsom has charisma, patriotism, optimism and likeability — all traits Harris struggles with. He’s also following Trump’s playbook, making the rounds on bro-style podcasts. Given time, his popularity is likely to rise.
PIGNANELLI: Another key rule of politics is that you have to fight something with something. The Democrats don’t have something (a progressive ideology isn’t working). The New York Times published an early obituary for the party (authored by Yale professor Daniel Martinez HoSang), explaining the drift of minorities to Republicans. A restructuring of society, combined with concerns for the economy and public safety shared by people of all colors, eroded the Democratic Party base.
For over two decades in this column, I have criticized politicians on the right and left extremes for their policies. Yet, I never accused them of treason, because such would be a betrayal of American principles. Barack Obama is a decent individual who is good to his family and did what he thought best for this country. A strong, loyal opposition is needed to push back forcefully against outrageous and dangerous accusations that he is a traitor. This should be enough incentive for Democrats to develop a new voice and practical ideology.
Will these trends have any impact on Utah elections and politics?
COWLEY: Utahns are accustomed to complete and total Republican domination, but I would be curious to see a Utah-specific poll of Vance’s approval. Will he fare better than Trump in the Beehive State, who has historically underperformed, or will the stain of Vance’s predecessor transfer to him?
PIGNANELLI: In Utah general elections, it’s always about the swing districts. If Republicans maintain their resilience, Democrats will face difficulty gaining in these contests. However, a blue wave, fueled by a struggling economy and other GOP controversies, will bolster those efforts.