Will voters repeal law that outlaws collective bargaining for public employees?
By Renae Cowley & Frank Pignanelli
We explain why political pundits are already speculating about the actions lawmakers must take soon in anticipation of elections 18 months away.
Employee associations and unions collected an overwhelming number of signatures to place HB 267 (which prohibits collective bargaining for government employees) on the ballot for repeal. A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey shows 36% of registered voters are in favor of the referendum to rescind the legislation, 32% are against, and 31% are undecided. What can be ascertained from these results?
COWLEY: With voters divided into almost perfect thirds, neither proponents nor opponents of the referendum have proven their case yet. Unions gathered an undeniably impressive 320,000 signatures, but the volume of signatures is not a direct correlation to their level of support. Many people were likely persuaded by the argument that signing simply puts the matter on the ballot for all Utah voters to weigh in on — a compelling argument, regardless of the issue being referred.
If this moves to the ballot, and it’s still a big “if” in my mind, it will result in the most money spent yet on a ballot measure in Utah. Unions will have to explain why they support union bosses receiving public employee benefits and taxpayer-funded retirements. Supporters of the bill are going to have to draw a distinction between the teachers in their kids’ classrooms that they know and love, versus UEA leadership and their support of a radical liberal agenda.
PIGNANELLI: “He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”— Sun Tzu Election and public affairs campaigns utilize strategies similar to those employed in military actions. (Of course, armed combatants confront horrendous challenges.) The shrewdest generals choose their battleground and when to fight. Cagey political warriors attempt similar planning.
The contest fostered by the collective bargaining referendum has devolved into a proxy battle between large national special interest organizations. The survey results will compel these well-funded entities to invest substantial resources. Further, firefighters, police officers, and teachers will be reaching out to their neighbors and friends to support the referendum. This promises a horrific battle.
The survey suggests that if the Legislature avoids this contentious issue (by repealing the law), few will object.
Political stirrings extend beyond collective bargaining. Major issues include: The Utah Fits All scholarship in jeopardy pending an appeal; judicial reform percolating, high-profile court matters on redistricting, and the Legislature’s hope for another shot at Amendment D. How do all of these issues impact one another?
COWLEY: If all of these issues become protracted battles, we could see a very crowded ballot in 2026. My prediction: several will be resolved before ballots are printed.
Should the Utah Fits All Scholarship ruling be upheld, other programs like dual-immersion and the Carson Smith Scholarship may be in jeopardy, prompting the Legislature to run a constitutional question clarifying educational funding.
Controversy surrounds several judges. Rep. Angela Romero joined Speaker Schultz in calling for 7th District Judge Don Torgerson to resign for comments he made at the end of a sentencing hearing in a felony child sexual exploitation case in Grand County. Any resulting judicial system reform is unlikely to require a ballot question; but will garner significant attention during the 2026 General Session.
Amendment D is the most likely to appear on the 2026 ballot. The Legislature is adamant about clarifying or reversing the Supreme Court’s ruling, which prohibits them from changing citizen initiatives or referenda in perpetuity. Without taking this issue to the voters, the ruling will result in initiatives becoming forever laws that can only be updated through another costly and difficult initiative.
In the unlikely event that all or most of these appear on the ballot, they will detract from one another. Prioritization and prudence are recommended if any of these is to succeed.
PIGNANELLI: Military history documents that fighting a multi-front war is expensive and requires prioritization to achieve any success. For GOP officials, the most critical target of their efforts is a ballot proposition in 2026 that would adjust the Constitution to allow amendments to successful initiatives. To attract voter approval, lawmakers will need to circumvent the collective bargaining referendum and adopt a strategic approach to other controversies.
All these matters will influence each other, but to what extent will be determined by where lawmakers place their focus. Such is political warfare.
November 2026 is a long way off. What, if anything, will happen on these matters before then?
COWLEY: The Legislature and unions will negotiate, seeking a compromise on repeal and replace. Cox intends to place the referendum on the 2026 ballot, yet many legislators will not want to run their reelection campaigns alongside this issue. It is only logical that the Legislature will consider repealing the law to avoid further fallout, as they did with tax reform. Should negotiations fail, replacing the law will be tricky without Amendment D clarification.
I’m optimistic Attorney General Derek Brown will be successful in winning the Utah Fits All Scholarship appeal, avoiding a ballot battle.
PIGNANELLI: Early next year, lawmakers will begin garnering support for the constitutional amendment that allows them to amend initiatives. Their success will require an intensive, comprehensive strategy. Other issues will likely be solved or held until 2027.
The unknown is the timing and outcome of the Planned Parenthood case, which could impact electioneering activities.