Are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints becoming politically purple?

By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli

Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.

Analyzing partisan trends of members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, especially the youth, is a favorite endeavor of pundits nationwide. With new research on the subject, it’s also a favored activity for us.

The Cooperative Election Survey has been conducting post-mortems on Utah elections since 2006 and recently published their latest findings. Among the interesting results is that members who identify as ideologically moderate jumped to 38% in 2024, with conservatives dropping from 61% in 2016 to 50%. Members are not strongly tied to the Republican party, yet Trump received 66% of the vote. Does the data indicate political affiliation shifts in Latter-day Saint voters, and why?

Cowley: When I peer into the kaleidoscope of Ryan Burge’s data, I see GOP affiliation is falling slightly among voters of the faith; however, those who still identify as Republican are becoming more MAGA. Trump received his largest share of the vote from this demographic in the most recent election. Their earlier reluctance to support Trump is understandable. His demeanor is off-putting, yet he delivers on campaign promises — something presidents from either party failed to achieve in recent history.

The data suggests Latter-day Saint voters are not strongly committed to either party. People feel they have the intellectual high ground by claiming to be non-partisan or moderate. They profess to be open to the best arguments from either side. Nevertheless, the values of members of the faith make it hard to vote for progressive candidates.

What data cannot demonstrate is how deeply patriotic members of the church are, despite a fractious history with government. The church encourages civic engagement but does not weigh in on party politics. Homogeneity within voting preferences is attributable to members supporting candidates who most closely align with their strongly-held values of “family first.”

Pignanelli: “If a person is not a liberal when he is 20, he has no heart; if he is not a conservative when he is 40, he has no head.” — Attribution unknown

Sociologists, cultural analysts and political scientists love to analyze Church members. This is fostered by members wishing to be examined separately from other denominations. (Few care what Catholics think unless a new pope is elected.)

Church members across the country are courteous, compassionate and often express gratitude to liberals for their involvement in the civic process. Left-wing organizations frequently confuse this niceness with a potential acceptance of a new ideology, which explains the ongoing predictions of a partisan shift.

While formal engagement with the Republican Party is declining, it is not translating into increased support for Democrats. The independent sector is growing, which could present opportunities to moderate Republicans and, perhaps, the occasional shrewd, conservative Democrat.

Once again, it is essential to remember in Utah that politeness does not necessarily imply acceptance.

According to the survey, in 2024 half of the young members of the church identify as Republicans and 35% as Democrats. Is the left gaining traction with these voters?

Cowley: College is a time for exploration, experimentation and discovering one’s values. My radical act of rebellion during this formative phase was to color my hair dark brown (huge mistake). Young members of the church are similarly rebelling on their path to discovery by departing the party of their parents and trending more Democratic. Still, a majority of college-aged to mid-Millennial voters identify as Republican, but the spread is much closer than that of their elders.

Despite their more left-leaning base, in 2024, this group increased its support for Trump. There is evidence that as they age, they become more Republican.

Pignanelli: I remember the 1972 presidential elections, beset by fear that the newly minted 18-year-old voters (through passage of the 26th Amendment to the Constitution) would storm the ballot boxes to sweep in liberal George McGovern. His opponent, Richard Nixon, won in a landslide.

The lesson remains the same. While younger voters may not identify with a particular party, it does not necessarily mean they prefer another one. According to the survey, older Church members identify as Republicans, while the younger members are less likely to do so. This does not translate into an automatic win for Democrats, but it does provide them with an opportunity to attract young voters with strategic messaging.

How might this impact politics in Utah and nationally?

Cowley: Members of the faith are not a large enough voting bloc in national elections to warrant much attention, though in Utah and other states with a significant population of these voters, candidates would be wise to use this data to shape campaign tactics.

Their largest departure from the GOP was in 2016, when Evan McMullin’s popularity surged. In subsequent elections, there hasn’t been a strong third-party candidate, making this theory hard to prove. Still, this anomaly could signal Latter-day Saint voters’ willingness to keep their options open with a viable alternative to the two-party norm.

Pignanelli: The partisan makeup of the respondents approximates recent Utah election results. But the survey also documents a shift by some members from conservative to independent. If the Democrats want to capitalize on this dynamic, they must meet the members halfway in terms of messaging and policy articulation.