Trump helped Republicans, but couldn’t save himself

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Important traditions are observed in December by millions of Americans. For the truly strange (aka us political hacks) it is a tradition for experts and pundits to analyze elections now that more of the data is in and the dust has settled. Books are already being written about what happened in November 2020. So, we feel duty-bound to offer our perspectives.

Serious publications are attempting to explain why President-elect Joseph Biden performed so well but Democrats were otherwise disappointed in national and state races. Some suggest a shift in demographics benefiting Republicans. Congressman Ben McAdams is warning Democrats against a leftward shift, suggesting this as a cause for his defeat. What trends seem real and what does this hold for Utah?

Pignanelli: “It is counterintuitive, but one way to think about the mixed results of the 2020 election is Trump may have lost, but Trumpism won.” — Matt Sandgren, Hatch Foundation

Explaining the mysteries of how Santa Claus performs his famous duties is an easier task than rationalizing voters’ intentions this year. Fortunately, political elves are helping.

The perfect poll of voters’ preferences is actual election results. The 2020 historical turnout demonstrated the referendum on President Donald Trump was not indicative of support for leftist policies. Biden won many districts lost by down-ballot Democrats.

Deseret News editorial intern Brian Ericson was among the first in the country to discern most of the 10 Democratic U.S. House seats flipped were by a Republican “woman and/or person of color.” This unexpected and significant development will impact campaign tactics for generations. Furthermore, these aspiring conservative politicians are hankering to publicly confront the “The Squad” (the famous club of liberal congressional females headed by the media-savvy Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez). The 2021 session of Congress promises entertainment.

The election also emphasized the seemingly irrevocable trend of working-class families shifting long-term loyalty from Democrat to Republican because of the attention fostered upon them, and their specific concerns, by Trump.

These observations suggest future obstacles for Utah Democrats and potential internal struggles within the Utah GOP. Hopefully, Santa delivers crystal balls to help.

Webb: First, the 2020 election confirms that America is a center-right nation and most voters don’t want a shift to the left. Second, the presidential election was all about Trump and his incredible power to get people to vote — both for him and against him. It was a rejection of Trump personally, but not so much his policies or the generally conservative direction he was taking the country.

Third, Trump couldn’t save himself, but he saved a lot of Republican seats. The enormous Republican and conservative turnout he provoked knocked a lot of Democrats (among them McAdams) out of office. While many moderate and mainstream Republicans couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Trump because of his personality and character flaws, they did vote for other Republicans lower on the ballot.

While Trump was good for Republicans in the 2020 election, he could hurt the party’s candidates in 2022 and 2024 if he demands total loyalty and turns against Republicans who aren’t among his zealous supporters.

If Trump so chooses, he will loom large in Republican politics at least through 2024 and he may well split the party and give Democrats an advantage. Trump is a once-in-a-century political disruptor, the most polarizing politician in our lifetimes.

Are there lessons and warnings for Utah Republicans and Democrats? Will they be heeded?

Pignanelli: Local Democrats’ ability to protect legislative incumbents — while coming close in several other races — indicates demographic and policy shifts among voters. This is especially evident along the east bench of Salt Lake County. Smart Republicans will increase embracing issues once the province of Democrats, including clean air, health care, growth concerns, etc.

The GOP stranglehold on federal and statewide offices continues until Democrats implement major distance from the national party. Key populist elements of Trumpism (restoring manufacturing, fair trade, constraining China, etc.) are accessible to both parties and could be valuable tools in future campaigns.

Webb: A key lesson for Utah Republicans is that for 2022 and possibly 2024, Trump will still be a factor and they must walk the tight rope of mainstream governance while not offending the Trump base, which remains a significant voting bloc.

Political turmoil is high. Is there an opportunity for a third party?

Pignanelli: Most politicos laugh at such questions. This dismissiveness is employed because an alternative party replacing a faltering faction only occurs in times of intense partisanship, changing demographics and economic volatility … hmmm.

Webb: In the post-Trump era, a centrist third party like the United Utah Party will be irrelevant because Trump will be gone. However, it’s possible the Trump base could split off and try to form a party. It won’t win elections, but could be a spoiler. Activists will have more influence within one of the national parties.

Is the Electoral College an archaic relic, or crucial for our federalist system?

A look at what the Electoral College means for Utah

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb, Contributors

A week from Monday, on Dec. 14, Utah’s designated electors will meet at the state Capitol to cast their ballots for president and vice president. Electors in 49 other states will do likewise, and determine the next president of the United States.

This ritual is often routine but becomes more controversial when one candidate wins the popular vote and the opponent wins the Electoral College vote. This year, Joe Biden is the apparent winner of both, so there will be less angst. We examine the implications of this constitutional institution and the election on Utah politics.

Once again, politicos are discussing whether the Electoral College should be preserved, modified or eliminated. Does Utah have anything at stake in this debate?

Pignanelli: ”The Electoral College is a political wisdom tooth — a historical relic that stays largely out of sight yet causes no small pain when it pops up.” — Matthew Daneman

Like the recent Utah-USC football game, the Electoral College proves the law of unintended consequences. The institution has evolved beyond recognition from the founders’ original intent of a group of select citizens deliberating in a thoughtful process — as described by Alexander Hamilton in “Federalist No. 68.” The existing “winner-takes-all” method is warping presidential elections as campaigns spend billions targeted on a few battleground states. But status quo advocates contend a national presidential election is fraught with danger. A compromise is in order.

Maine and Nebraska provide two electors for the statewide winner, and the remaining vote based on results in each congressional district. Because this substantially resolves current disadvantages, some politicos are advocating for a countrywide adoption. Electoralvotemap.com applied this system to contests since 2000 and concluded margins would have varied but with the similar ultimate results … except Mitt Romney was elected in 2012 and possibly finishing a second term this year.

Utah is among several states with minimal voting power in national elections. The Maine/Nebraska modification protects any small state advantage while forcing candidates to moderate and focus attention on regions currently ignored.

Politics and football demonstrate on a daily basis that plans are usually thwarted and modifications required.

Webb: We are a nation of states, not just a population mass. States created the federal government and have important rights under the Constitution. The founders instituted the Electoral College to help ensure that all states have meaningful roles in the federal system, including small states like Utah.

If presidential elections were decided by the popular vote, candidates would mostly campaign where the votes are — in the big cities and on the coasts. Instead of campaigning state-by-state, addressing the priorities and needs of individual states, campaign strategists would divide the masses into demographic and interest groups and would campaign to those groups with targeted messages. Democrats would spend immense amounts of money running up big vote totals in New York and California. You wouldn’t have candidates spending much time and money in small swing states like Nevada and New Mexico.

The Electoral College forces candidates to be aware of the priorities and needs of states, not just large demographic groups. If we care about states, if we care about federalism, we must preserve the Electoral College.

President Donald Trump and his legal team are working feverishly to change the predicted election outcome when electors gather in eight days. Will he be successful, and how does this pursuit play in Utah?

Pignanelli: Both sides are declaring the republic is in jeopardy either because of voter fraud or attacks on the election process. This is nonsense. Americans and Utahns turned out in record numbers to vote. The courts and the Department of Justice are hearing, then rejecting, unproven allegations of misconduct. Utahns moved on because the system is working.

Webb: Biden will win, but Trump has every right to pursue administrative and legal recourse to be certain the election was conducted properly. But it should be done with dignity and a willingness to concede gracefully when remedies are exhausted. Trump’s over-the-top rhetoric about the election being fraudulent and stolen goes too far. He is making it hard even for his strong supporters to hang with him.

How did President-elect Joseph Biden win the most votes in presidential election history, yet have such short coattails in down-ballot races?

Pignanelli: Trump’s campaign advisers tried hard to paint the election as a choice between a successful president and a compromise candidate beholden to left-wing interests. But many voters turned out to reject the incumbent’s style and not for the challenger. Thus, the unexpected results in congressional elections.

Webb: Hardcore Trump supporters are citing the coattails issue and other turnout statistics as evidence that Trump couldn’t have lost the election. But the reality is simple: Millions more voters than usual voted for Trump. But even more millions than usual voted against him.

The election was more of a personal repudiation of Trump, and was not a rejection of other Republicans, conservatism or even Trump’s policies. Voters were happy to support Republicans and conservative principles up and down the ballot. But while a lot of voters loved Trump, even more hated him.

Political types of all stripes have a lot to be thankful for this year

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

This Thanksgiving was very different from the traditional big gatherings most of us are used to. Meanwhile, those involved in politics expressed appreciation for a variety of blessings last Thursday. Without revealing our sources (i.e. Russian intelligence, Chinese hackers, North Korean wiretapping, etc.) we hereby outline what we learned about secret expressions of gratitude by Utahns and their leaders.

Every man, woman, child, pet (and even house plant) in Utah: We are extremely grateful to no longer be bombarded with the endless negative commercials from the Owens and McAdams campaigns. After months of that nonsense, the silly ad with the bears and toilet paper is now comforting to watch.

National pollsters, pundits, campaign experts, political wisemen: We are grateful for the insecurity that politicians, campaign managers, and the news media feel. It means they will continue to hire us for polling, focus groups, message testing, etc. even though we got it completely wrong — AGAIN!

Twitter executives: The Twitterer-In-Chief may be out of office, but his thumbs still work. So, the tweet blizzards will continue. We are thankful for such a healthy democracy … and the ad revenue.

Right-wing activist groups: We are thankful liberal Democrats will be occupying the executive branch. We can scream at them … which helps our fundraising and membership recruitment activities.

Gov. Gary Herbert: Leading Utah through a major crisis wasn’t how I expected to end my nearly 12 years in office, but I’m grateful to have the confidence of Utahns — and my approval ratings have held strong!

Left-wing activist groups: A Democrat will be in the White House, but we can still scare our members with threats of an ignored progressive agenda. We are grateful for opportunities to further squeeze our supporters for contributions.

Former President George W. Bush: I’m amazed that all these liberals who hated me are now proclaiming me as a great statesman, all because we had a smooth transition to President Obama — doing what every other administration before mine did. I am thankful for the amusement of changed perspectives.

The news media: Of course, we abhor the intensely partisan nature of politics … and hope it continues. This last election broke all records for advertising spending. Our profits are not “fake news.”

U.S. Sen. Mike Lee: I am grateful that the GOP will maintain the Senate majority. I can lecture the Biden administration on constitutional principles when they seek approval of their appointments … and they will have no choice but to listen.

U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney: I am grateful to be the junior senator from Utah … and in the catbird seat. I can follow my “Inner Mitt” and say anything I want about anyone or anything because both the Biden administration and the Senate majority need my vote.

Gov.-elect Spencer Cox: After spending hours with legislators chewing on me over the state’s pandemic response, I’m grateful for the good sense to have picked former state Sen. Deidre Henderson as my running mate. She gets to deal with them from now on!

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson: Although Democrats suffered some losses, I am grateful to be reelected. I’m especially appreciative to have received 273,746 votes, making me the leading Democratic vote-getter in the state. Just sayin’ …

Congressman-elect Burgess Owens: I thank all my supporters. But we could have not succeeded without the competency of the Utah County Clerk who reestablished sanity in the voting process. So, a special Thanksgiving blessing to Amelia Powers Gardner.

Congressman-elect Blake Moore: It doesn’t happen often, but I am thankful that nice guys can actually win.

Congressman John Curtis: The presidential election provides great opportunities. I can push back on the Biden administration if they try to expand Bears Ears, but they will have to reach out to me to do anything feasible on climate change. I’m thankful for the leverage.

Congressman Chris Stewart: I’m interested to learn what bogeymen the House Democrats will investigate next year. I am grateful for their antics as they make it easy for me to seem reasonable.

National Republicans: We did lose the presidency, but otherwise are enjoying a cornucopia of blessings. Thanks to all who screamed, “defund the police”, “pack the court” and other inflammatory demands. Of course, a special shout out to “The Squad.” Without you, we could not have increased our House numbers and maintained control of legislatures that will redraw district boundaries to guarantee success in 2022. What a blessed year.

National Democrats: Uh, yes, we underperformed in congressional and Senate elections. But we won the White House. Even better, Trump will be running a shadow campaign which gives us all sorts of fundraising and voter registration advantages. A fruitful year, indeed.

Senate Pres. Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson: The presidential and other federal elections were so acrimonious and unsettling that state government and legislative campaigns seemed positively boring. Our supermajorities continue, and we look forward to a great year.

LaVarr and Frank are always grateful that we have a few more readers than just Frank’s mother. And we thank all those politicians who generate enough news and controversy to keep us well supplied with material.

A fun blast from the past...

https://www.utahpoliticohub.com/top-three-lobbyists-in-utah-poll-results/

The results are in for  our 100% unscientific, but fully “official” Utah Politico Hub poll on Utah’s top lobbyist.

If we can learn nothing from what an non-scientific, non-statistically relevent, online poll, it’s that our readers believe that the best lobbyists in Utah are come in twos.

And the top three lobbyists are:

1. Doug Foxley and Frank Pignanelli: Not only do Doug and Frank get our official nod as Utah’s top lobbyists, but they get a nod for their willingness to poke fun at themselves as well.

Was this election a disaster for Utah Democrats? Perhaps there’s a silver lining

Your columnists are happy to join the crowd and share our perspectives on the final results and what it all means. By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

For political junkies, pundits and operatives, election results are a gold mine of information for endless analysis and rumination. With Utah’s election complete, the opining has begun. Your columnists are happy to join the crowd and share our perspectives on the final results and what it all means.

The hotly contested 4th Congressional District race finally ended with a narrow victory for Republican challenger Burgess Owens against Democrat incumbent Ben McAdams. This was unexpected six months ago. How did this happen? Does this race and other Utah elections mirror what happened on a national level?

Pignanelli: “What matters most in politics is personality. It’s not issues; it’s not image. It’s who you are and what you represent.” — Frank Luntz

The 2020 national elections were like a television reality program, heavy on personality but light on details. Similarly, the 4th District contest was not waged over specific policies or McAdam’s performance, but rather personalities and perceived alignment with extremist forces. Such battles require strategic positioning and clever tactics. Democrats spent millions blasting Owens for his bankruptcies. But many Utahns utilized such debt relief for compelling reasons. So, Owens’ opponents unwittingly reaffirmed his image as a common person with everyday struggles.

McAdams diagnosis in his concession speech was correct. Affiliation with lefty national Democrats was an impossible burden to shake, especially with Utah County Republicans casting ballots in greater numbers. Although a newcomer to politics, polls always revealed Owens a viable contender. This demonstrated serious headwinds for McAdams despite his strong performance in Congress. A persuasive substantive message was elusive. Indeed, thousands voted for Joseph Biden but lacked enthusiasm to even vote in this race.

Owens and his campaign deserve tremendous credit. They expertly and consistently stuck to their message of Owens as an outsider with real world problems. Whether because of the pandemic or frustration with Congress, voters were receptive to this message.

So, Owens is well prepared to enter a massive reality and entertainment milieu — the U.S. House of Representatives.

Webb: The turnout for the 2020 election was record-setting both in Utah and nationally. In addition to mail-in voting, a central reason for the massive turnout was Donald Trump — to vote for him or against him. In Utah and across the country, Trump’s base turned out and helped win Republican seats in Congress and state legislatures.

It is ironic that Trump couldn’t save himself, but he helped win hundreds of down-ballot races for Republicans. Biden had the weakest coattails of any presidential winner in 60 years.

In Utah, Trump won with more than 58% of the vote, up dramatically from his election in 2016. McAdams simply couldn’t withstand the Republican onslaught. This race was “nationalized” more than I would have expected. Utah voters didn’t want Democrats controlling the entire federal government.

All voters were sick of the negative advertising in the race. With so much of it, the sides canceled each other out as voters stopped paying attention.

Owens is already on Fox News frequently. As a Black Republican with a compelling life story, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to be a warrior for conservative values. However, he should follow the example of former Congresswoman Mia Love and keep his head down, immerse himself in committee work and constituent services, and on practical matters important to Utah.

On election night, Democrats were poised for some major victories only to see many of them disappear as all the ballots were counted. Was this year a disaster for Utah Democrats or is there a silver lining?

Pignanelli: Democrats have some condolences. No incumbent legislators lost and they overall netted a seat. Biden and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson captured a slight majority in Salt Lake County, but otherwise Republicans fared well in many other races. This reaffirms — again — Democrats require a different strategy in messaging.

Webb: Democrats in many races were clobbered with the same forces that took down McAdams. Republicans now hold a supermajority on the Salt Lake County Council, which is quite remarkable.

It would be a mistake, though, to label Utah a right-wing state. We will have a moderate governor in Spencer Cox and moderate members of Congress in Mitt Romney, John Curtis and Blake Moore. Remember that just two years ago a number of quite progressive ballot measure were approved. Our legislative leadership is mainstream.

We’re not swinging much to the left or right. Democrats still have hope with the right candidates and the right positions on issues.

Voter turnout in Utah was exceedingly high. Was this unique to 2020 or part of a larger trend?

Pignanelli: Because Utah suffered low voter rates for many years, politicos were grateful for this record response. The midterm 2022 elections may not garner as much excitement, but the volatile nature of politics does have a positive side of engaging citizens to mail their ballots. Thus, this could be a delightful trend.

Webb: Voting by mail has changed the game. Turnout will remain high, especially when helped by an emotional presidential race.

The 2020 election is over (mostly) ... What happened?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

National political pundits are desperately trying to explain unexpected inconsistencies in federal elections. But the same dynamics also occurred in Utah

National political pundits are desperately trying to explain unexpected inconsistencies in federal elections. But the same dynamics also occurred in Utah. We suggest that this confusion can best be explained by two people with addled brains — your columnists.

The presidential contest was much closer than projected in polling. Although former Vice President Joe Biden won the popular vote (and most likely the Electoral College), Democrats unexpectedly lost U.S. House races, and are unlikely to win the Senate.

In Utah, GOP congressional contender Burgess Owens was leading Democrat Ben McAdams at our Thursday deadline. Yet, Utah Democrats are likely to increase House seats, protect incumbents and they came close in other races. What is going on?

Pignanelli: “On Election Day, there was huge support of each political party. But there’s a ton of warning signs for them. They got a lot of votes but people weren’t satisfied with either party.” — Matthew Dowd, ABC News

ALERT: All the smart political people do not reside on the East Coast. Thankfully, the essential KUED program “The Hinckley Report” (skillfully hosted by Jason Perry) offers weekly televised opportunities for Utah journalists and politicos to offer their important perspectives. During a recent episode, Deseret News Opinion Editor Boyd Matheson opined that a great shift is occurring among voters as they become increasingly issue-oriented. He defines this trend “transactional” as citizens focus on specific concerns, not political parties. Matheson observed this is good for the republic in fostering compromise, coalitions and quality government.

For example, what was once the Democratic base of working-class America is now the stronghold of Republicans. Conversely, Democrats are performing better in suburban arenas, but losing large portions of the country. These shifts are grounded on issues, not ideologies.

Yeah, I risk being accused of toadying to Matheson — the patient newspaper boss for LaVarr and me. But he describes well what is happening across the country and in Utah. Voter turnout was massive and yet there were no “waves” for either party. In a pandemic, Americans demonstrated their concerns for country, state and community by concentrating on issues.

Once again, the Utah talent gets it right.

Webb: Democrats hoping for an election mandate to take the country in a more liberal direction were absolutely rebuffed. They did win the White House, defeating a divisive, flawed president severely damaged by a rampaging pandemic and an economic collapse. Even then, the presidential race was much closer than it should have been, given the president’s weakness.

And down ballot, Democrats can find little comfort. Republicans will still control the Senate, they increased their strength in the House, more than held their own in state legislatures across the country, and picked up one governorship. Republicans will control redistricting next year in many states. A Washington Post reporter noted that Biden’s victory came with the weakest coattails in 60 years.

I believe the election shows that we remain a center-right nation with a large contingent of working, middle-class Americans who dramatically disagree with coastal elites, big-city liberals and the establishment news media. These Americans see the aforementioned groups undermining traditional American and family values. The election shows that a large swath of voters don’t believe that big government is the solution to all of America’s problems.

Is what happened in 2020 unique because of the personalities involved in the presidential contest or are we observing what could be long-term trends?

Pignanelli: One hundred years ago society and politics were forever changed by the Great War, new technologies and the 1918 pandemic. The recent elections demonstrated similar impacts of disease, technology and global chaos. What happened in 2016 was not a fluke. Mixed outcomes in the presidential and congressional elections reveal realignments of demographics and priorities are occurring. As in 1920, these irreversible dynamics hold challenges but much promise for the future.

Webb: It would be a big mistake to underestimate the magnetic pull Trump has on his passionate base. His bombast and contrariness touch multimillions of Americans on a visceral level. Through Trump, working-class Americans rebel against political correctness, identity politics and big government. Liberal elites will never understand this. They dismiss such people as ignorant bumpkins. But the Trump base is, and will remain, a significant force. It’s unclear, however, whether a Republican other than Trump can keep these Americans politically active and energized.

Will such election results be reflected in public policy decisions?

Pignanelli: Absolutely. Although partisans are loathe to admit it, concerns regarding health care, the environment, race relations, innovation, economic opportunity, preserving capitalism and traditional values are bleeding across party lines, and will influence national and local legislation. Thank goodness.

Webb: With Biden presiding over a divided government, I do believe opportunity exists for compromise and progress on a range of important issues, especially immigration, health care, energy policy, climate change, infrastructure and economic stimulus.

But there will be no large leftward lurch. No court-packing, no Green New Deal, no big tax boost.

From Utah to the White House, here are some of the best and worst moments of the election

The red and blue walls are crumbling and demographics are realigning. This will impact Utah’s local politics and elections.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: Well, we wish we could say the 2020 election is over but, as of our Thursday deadline, some races were still undecided. But we can say conclusively that this election confounded expectations and predictions. Thus, we provide the best, worst, strangest and most intriguing elements of the 2020 national and Utah elections.

What were the positive highlights of 2020 elections?

“All the ills of democracy can be cured by more democracy.” — Al Smith

In a year filled with rancor, pestilence, economic strangulation, divisive partisanship and emotional challenges, Americans and Utahns turned out in record numbers to cast ballots in a peaceful manner. This was a true test of the republic and we passed.

Nothing was more heartwarming than watching our fellow citizens of different skin hues, creeds and origins casting their ballots. Sure, extremists on either side may try to foster protests when the results are finalized, but the overwhelming participation, the highest number of voters in history, protected the sanctity of our institutions.

The lowlights?

The low point of the entire election was the first presidential debate. All observers and even partisans were depressed with the performance of the two candidates.

The strangest Utah-related election occurrence?

Utahns possess a unique perspective in this category. When their senior senator, Mike Lee, during a public political rally compared President Trump to Book of Mormon hero Captain Moroni, the most subdued reaction was a raised eyebrow. Obviously, this generated tremendous uproar among the faithful and among knowledgeable gentiles. But perhaps it was an intriguing method to garner interest in Lee’s church.

Most interesting (at least to political hacks)?

For months, serious experts used polling results and other research to proclaim profound judgments that not only would Joe Biden win in a landslide, but a massive blue wave not seen since the FDR tsunami of 1932 was imminent. They cockily predicted multiple red states would flip and the entire American government would be in the hands of Democrats. They were very wrong … again. These coastal elites and establishment news media continue to diminish and even disregard the economic and social concerns of working class middle America. The errors of “experts” in 2020 are even greater than 2016.

Positive highlight in Utah?

The joint press conference and commercials featuring Republican gubernatorial candidate Spencer Cox and Democrat Chris Peterson pledging the civil discourse was definitely a PR stunt … and everyone loved it. (Well, except strident partisans, but they are no fun anyway.) In fact, their lovefest spread across the country with massive media coverage — demonstrating a hunger by Americans for their politicians to be nice. Do nice guys finish last? Well, one did and one didn’t.

The worst in Utah?

All Utahns can agree they hated incessant airing of the awful negative TV and radio advertisements produced by supporters and campaigns of Congressman Ben McAdams and his challenger Burgess Owens. Negative ads can work, but when they are stacked on top of each other filling every second, minute and hour of commercial time, viewers block them out. Unfortunately, national party hacks were not alone producing crappy ads and personal attacks; the local campaigns joined this fray (even though the strategy was inconsistent with the candidates’ actual personalities). These ads added further insult by instructing us on Utah values and “bringing everyone together.” The hardcore political operatives behind these tactics will need to shower to remove the stench.

The strangest nationally?

The presidential election may be determined by ... Nevada? Utah enjoys the proximity of our Silver State neighbors, but no one predicted they would play such an outsize role in the final moments of the presidential election (as of this writing). This weirdness is further compounded by the results in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Most interesting trend in Utah?

Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are bickering among themselves because their projections of massive victories dissipated and turned into Republican gains. Yet in the Utah House, Democrats are likely to pick up some seats. Their success reaffirms the east bench of Salt Lake County is shifting blue. Further, the loss (and near loss) of several seats in west Salt Lake County is also revealing. Could this be an indication of shifts in suburban politics in Utah?

Further, without a presidential nominee with coattails, the Salt Lake County mayoral race was handily won by Democrat Jenny Wilson, and the council races are more mixed.

These results my indicate Utah voters are paying attention to individual issues issues and less on party affiliation. This was made easier by the recent change in Utah law disallowing straight party ticket voting.

The Utah election results are highlighting significant trends to watch in this decade. The narrowness of the 2020 national election results document that 2016 was not a freak occurrence. The red and blue walls are crumbling and demographics are realigning. Technology and society are rapidly evolving, but traditional norms are in stronger demand by many. This will impact Utah’s local politics and elections. Please don’t ask us to predict how.

Want to be a pundit? Here’s what to look for on Election Day

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

As a service to our great readers, we provide a primer of what to look for on Tuesday

Pignanelli & Webb: “I would caution anybody: If you read the early vote, or small polling leads, and think that this race is over, you are mistaken.” — Anthony Salvanto (respected CBS political analyst with a very cool Italian name)

Finally! Election Day is upon us. Although some results may not be final for weeks, at least the disgusting television and radio commercials pummeling the candidates in the 4th Congressional District are over. As a service to our great readers, we provide a primer of what to look for on Tuesday, and discuss with your family and friends and while sounding like a real pro.

What makes this election different?

Consistent with everything in 2020, this campaign season is strange and unique. For the first time in history, a majority of ballots will be cast before election day. Part of this dynamic are concerns with the COVID-19 pandemic, but also the intensity in both political parties to influence the outcome. There are predictions of record-level voting in almost every state. Also, many Americans who did not vote previously are now registered, which could produce surprises.

Also, it’s important to look at the lessons of history. This is not the first election during a pandemic. In 1918, during a deadly, raging flu contagion and a world war, control of Congress changed in the November elections.

What state results will be indicators of where the country is going?

Keep your attention on Pennsylvania and Florida. The Keystone State of Pennsylvania will be key in this election. Pennyslvania cannot count mail ballots until Tuesday, so the evening results will be preliminary. But, if it’s even close, there’s a good chance Donald Trump is on a path to victory. Further, if Florida is marginal or possibly leaning towards Trump, then that means the Hispanic vote is supporting him there and possibly in other states. If Trump loses either of these two on election night — it’s over.

Also, watch Arizona. Deadlocks in other parts of the country may give this state the final say in who wins.

What to expect in Utah’s 4th Congressional District?

A mind-boggling and record-setting $20 million has been spent by both candidates and political parties in this contest. Some analysts believe incumbent Ben McAdams was helped by ballot proposals on the 2018 ballots that are not present this year. However, he has compensated by mounting a huge field operation.

The key to this race is south of Salt Lake County. The uber-competent Utah County Clerk Amelia Powers Gardner will not repeat the problems of her predecessor in preventing thousands from voting. The candidate with the best strategy for voter turnout across the district will prevail.

The polls have consistently revealed that this race is deadlocked and we may not know final results for several days.

What could happen with control of the U.S. Senate?

In recent history, the success of Senate candidates were tied to the support of their party’s nominee for president. But 2020 decimates old playbooks.

Maine may decide Senate control. The state uses the ranked choice voting system. So the Senate candidate initially receiving the highest number of first-place votes may not be the ultimate winter. It’s whoever has the most first and second place preferences. This race will dominate the airwaves Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday.

Georgia requires a runoff election if one candidate does not receive 50% of the vote. The Peach State has two Senate elections (general and special), and polling indicates that both are likely headed to January runoffs. If this occurs on Tuesday, then the ultimate control of the Senate may not be determined until Jan. 5.

Other races to watch are North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan and Arizona. With likely unprecedented voter turnout, controversial presidential candidates and a pandemic in a struggling economy, it is essentially impossible to predict which party will control the Senate when the dust settles.

What other Utah elections should be followed?

Republican Spencer Cox is certain to win the governor’s race. If Democrat candidate Chris Peterson receives more than 30% of the vote, it will be a small victory of sorts, and will signal some interesting trends. Should Democrats pick up legislative seats, that could be revelation of potential Democrat victories in other Utah races, and even in other parts of the country.

Amendment G, amending the state Constitution to create more flexibility in using funding earmarked for public education, is likely to pass. But, a close contest will indicate voter support for education funding that may be reflected in future legislation.

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson is facing the most aggressive challenge an incumbent in her position has faced for decades. How Republican Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs fares will be an important evaluation of the political dynamics in Utah’s largest county. Join with the rest of the political pundits and watch this one closely.

Please remember: Despite the intense feelings of partisans, whatever happens on election day, the country will go forward and be just fine.