How to identify your ghoulish politicians as they trick-or-treat

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Normal people are behaving like zombies, with distant looks on their faces. Yes, Halloween is soon here, but we are describing 2020 election.

Pignanelli & Webb: This is the season of nightmarish scenes, haunting messages and terrifying predictions. Normal people are behaving like zombies, with distant looks on their faces. Yes, Halloween is soon here, but we are describing 2020 election.

It is the season of tricks and treats, and most Americans assume they’re being tricked. Over the next week, candidates will be appearing on virtual and figurative doorsteps, seeking votes, not candy. To help you identify them as they solicit your support, we reveal what costumes they may be masquerading in.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Spencer Cox will be costumed as the mythical creature griffin and Democratic candidate Chris Peterson will be a unicorn, a reflection of their recently announced joint effort encouraging civility in politics. In other words, they represent something everyone wants to see, but that doesn’t exist in reality.

Sen. Mike Lee will be donning the attire of a new superhero “Captain Constitutional Republic” as he battles those evildoers who dare to label our government a democracy.

President Donald Trump really needs no costume to be scary, but he will dress as the “Hulk” — the biggest, loudest and angriest guy in the room.

Former Vice President Joe Biden will be donning a Barack Obama mask to remind voters of his major campaign message: “I am buddies with Barack”

Gov. Gary Herbert will be wearing the “Plague Doctor” outfit complete with goggles and the large hook nose. The hope is to scare everyone into wearing masks and social distancing.

State epidemiologist Angela Dunn will be Florence Nightingale, providing stern medical advice but with her usual gentle bedside manner.

If you see Casper the Friendly Ghost, it’s likely Attorney General Sean Reyes floating about. People know he exists but he’s hard to pin down. Chasing this spirit around will be Democratic attorney general candidate Greg Skordas in Ghostbuster regalia.

Congressman Ben McAdams will be wearing the Ronald Reagan mask as part of his intense effort to attract Republicans.

Republican congressional candidate Burgess Owens will be Teflon Man. Apparently, harsh attacks on him — or even comments made by him — bounce right off.

Utah Democratic Party chairman Jeff Merchant will be Don Quixote as he maintains warfare against windmills.

Utah GOP Party chairman Derek Brown will be costumed as a lion tamer as he attempts to train and subdue unruly candidates and party members.

Sen. Mitt Romney will return as the Dark Knight, mysterious in his ways and holding to principle as he seeks to instill common sense in the dark corridors of the nation’s capital.

Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson will assume the nun habit of Mother Teresa, demonstrating her concern for those afflicted in the pandemic while hoping to shame state leaders.

Republican Salt Lake County mayoral candidate Trent Staggs will be Johnny Appleseed, seen planting lawn signs in every nook and cranny of the county.

Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall will be wearing the Dr. Tony Fauci mask demonstrating her support for scientific approaches to the pandemic, justifying her request for more restrictions.

Congressman Chris Stewart will be wearing a Trump mask, signaling he’s all in with the Prez — no turning back.

GOP congressional candidate Blake Moore will be wearing a trench coat and sunglasses to further promote fun rumors of possible undercover activity in his past.

Congressman Rob Bishop will be the seldom-seen Sasquatch. Rumors, scratchy photos and discarded diet Dr. Pepper cans point to his existence, but sightings are rare.

Congressman John Curtis is superhero Plastic Man, able to stretch himself across the state and the political aisle in preventing climate change and protecting states’ rights in public lands.

Democratic congressional candidates Darren Parry, Kael Weston and Devin Thorpe will be The Three Amigos, doing their best to protect the citizenry from rascally Republican politicians.

This column sometimes describes State Auditor John Dougall as “The Force” because government agencies feel his presence. To remain consistent in his omnipresence, he will be trick-or-treating as Baby Yoda.

House Speaker Brad Wilson will sport Braveheart attire (complete with kilt and blueface), courageously leading his caucus to balance Utah’s tax system and defend against Democratic challengers.

Senate President Stuart Adams will seek treats as Gandalf the Grey, effortlessly and effectively leading his fellowship of senators through the scary forest filled with protesters, lobbyists and rowdy House members.

Senate Minority Leader Karen Mayne is Flo the Progressive Insurance spokeswoman, reminding everyone that a unique style of relentless determination and earnestness does succeed.

Minority Leader Brian King is the cartoon character Underdog, fighting for right of the opposition to oppose anything, at any time, no matter what.

Former Sen. Orrin Hatch is the Great Pumpkin. We know he is out there and we have fond memories, despite few sightings, and we wish him well.

Pignanelli & Webb will be haunting neighborhoods as happy, clumsy clowns — not too competent, but giddy that the election concludes in just nine days!

Amy Coney Barrett, Mike Lee and Utah’s Amendment G ... what are the political ramifications?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah temperatures are dropping, but intense politics is keeping Utahns hot (and agitated). We review some of the sizzling topics.

In the Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearings for the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court, viewers witnessed a huge tug-of-war and lengthy speechifying among liberal and conservative senators. Utah Sen. Mike Lee played a leading role in the action. Will this nomination and confirmation process impact national and Utah elections? What does this do for Lee’s career?

Pignanelli: “When will there be enough women on the Supreme Court? I say when there are nine, which shocks people. But when there were nine men nobody ever raised a question about that.” — Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Responding to inquiries regarding Judge Barrett’s faith, some U.S. senators suggest American Catholics are a persecuted minority. Finally! This is official recognition of the torment I endured my entire life. Admittedly, most torture was from fellow Catholics — family members and religious instructors — imposing huge guilt trips and self-loathing. But, I’ll take whatever sympathy I can get.

Judge Barrett performed well under pressure and her personal story is compelling. This could influence the small sliver of undecided voters in the presidential contest.

The perception of Barrett could impact Senate races across the country. Right-leaning voters apprehensive with the president but comfortable with the nominee may now support GOP candidates in tight races. Conversely, the hearings also gave Democrats a strong platform to raise concerns with the potential loss of Obamacare during a health crisis.

Lee is further cemented as a conservative warrior, especially on religious liberties issues. This will set him up as a future gatekeeper on the Judiciary Committee.

The likely positive vote for Judge Barrett will result in six Catholics on the Supreme Court — weak evidence of discrimination. But trust me, other guilt trips are being created.

Webb: For moderate Republicans wavering in their support of President Trump, this nomination of a remarkable, highly-qualified, but conservative woman to the Supreme Court should remind them of the importance of having a Republican president making judicial appointments.

This importance is further amplified by threats by some Democrats to pack the Supreme Court, and the refusal of the Democratic presidential ticket to forthrightly reject court packing. If the Democrats win both the presidency and the Senate in a few weeks, pressure by the left wing of the party will be intense to add members to the court so that liberals control all three branches of the federal government. That should frighten Republican voters and drive them to support Trump and other Republicans.

Meanwhile, Sen. Lee was obviously having fun at the hearings, waving a pocket-size copy of the Constitution and discussing a range of constitutional principles. Because this confirmation is not really in doubt, and because Barrett was so cogent and succinct in her answers, there was much more speechifying by senators going on than actual questioning of Barrett. Lee got in some good speeches and made some solid points about religious freedom.

I was immensely impressed by Barrett. She will be a terrific addition to the Supreme Court.

Seven constitutional amendments will be on the Nov. 3 ballot and most, with the exception of Amendment G, are generating a sleepy reception. Currently, the Constitution restricts the use of income taxes for public and higher education. Amendment G would extend use of income taxes for programs that support children and people with disabilities. Opponents are increasing their level of activity. What are the politics of this?

Pignanelli: The 2019 and early 2020 tax reform battles were intense, and the combatants are exhausted. This welcome truce resolves budgetary problems. But for decades, education advocates treasured this unique constitutional protection for public schools and are questioning its removal.

Momentum is favoring passage as players in the political, business and education community abhor a repeated struggle over sales taxes that will result otherwise.

Webb: It’s important to remember that essentially the entire education community supports Amendment G. Combined with new statutory language, it will help stabilize and protect education funding over the long term. It is critical that the state’s tax structure be better balanced to reflect the modern economy.

In response to consistent higher levels of coronavirus cases, Gov. Gary Herbert announced a new COVID-19 transmission index with various restrictions. Any political ramifications?

Pignanelli: Herbert found the middle between competing forces. The transmission index is a clever, effective method of highlighting concerns and restrictions for large groups is commonsense. This should appease Utahns doing their best to control the virus, while legitimately resenting lifestyle limitations because of irresponsible teenagers.

Webb: My wife and I canceled a family gathering to celebrate a grandchild’s birthday because it would have violated the new guidelines. This program will work if citizens take it seriously. We can’t shut down the economy. Businesses need to stay open and children need to be in school. Let’s follow the guidelines, wear masks and keep the economic recovery going. And we’ll find a way to more than compensate for the missed birthday party.

Utah and vice presidential candidates held a nice debate. Did it change any minds?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

SALT LAKE CITY — Whew! It’s over. Once again, Utah was the focus of global attention as it hosted the vice presidential debate last Wednesday between Vice President Mike Pence and California Sen. Kamala Harris. We review implications of the event, especially juxtaposed against interesting Utah poll results.

Days before the debate, a Y2 Analytics survey revealed President Donald Trump was leading Vice President Joseph Biden 50% to 40% in Utah. Interestingly, the president’s support among members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was less than 60%, which is lower than prior elections with other Republican candidates. Did the debate change Utahns’ perceptions of the presidential candidates?

Pignanelli: “What I will remember most about tonight’s vice presidential debate … is I will not remember it.” — Stephen Colbert

Every year, Americans flock to Utah to be rejuvenated through outdoor activities, religious gatherings and interaction with friendly residents. Once again, the Beehive State — albeit electronically — invigorated (or relieved) millions through simply hosting an argument. Critics are complaining about snarky behavior and dodging questions. So what? The purpose was to produce a treasured ritual of democracy and that running mates are up to the ultimate task. Mission accomplished.

The Y2 poll also indicates 56% of Latter-day Saints believe Trump is a dishonest man, but Pence is beloved. But, the vast majority do not like the politics of Biden, who suffers high disapproval ratings.

The survey demonstrates a fundamental element of Utahns. While uncomfortable with Trump, they will hold their nose to vote for him in preference to his policies. Furthermore, they expend resources to host a vice presidential debate, treating all parties with courtesy. Utahns are pragmatic and believe the traditions of our democracy are more important than personal differences.

Utah supplied the only humorous episode in this entire election season — the famous fly on Pence’s head. Success all around for our beloved state.

Webb: It’s remarkable how Trump’s surrogates, particularly the vice president, make a better case for Trump than he does for himself. Pence was a much better debater than Trump was in the earlier debate. Pence persuasively defended administration policies and effectively articulated the conservative political philosophy.

America’s vice president is a heartbeat away from becoming president. Pence appeared to be much better prepared for that eventuality, on both domestic issues and foreign policy, than Harris.

The Y2 survey also showed a significant number of Utahns don’t like the president personally, but do like his policies. Many Utah Republicans are struggling with these questions: Can I vote for someone whose personality and character repels me, but whose policies and results I generally like? And if I don’t vote for Trump, will I be complicit in helping ensure a liberal, Democratic takeover of Washington (and the packing of the U.S. Supreme Court)?

Those are weighty and difficult questions. Pence’s calm, but resolute, defense of his boss and his accomplishments should provide some rationale for Republicans to vote Republican. The reality is that Trump’s bark is almost always worse than his bite. He makes outrageous statements, blows things up, and takes every issue to the brink, but ultimately gets good results (mostly).

The Utah Debate Commission, led by former state Sen. Karen Hale and former Senate President Wayne Neiderhauser worked in conjunction with the University of Utah through Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics. What is the impact on Utah of this historic event beyond just highlighting vice presidential candidates?

Pignanelli: Despite the criticism, Tuesday’s debate is the gold standard for future interactions. The local commission and the university provided flawless physical and technical support (other than that fly). Tactics used by the candidates will be studied for years to come.

It was nice the candidates soaked up some Utah history and culture. Hopefully, they and other engaged observers will learn more about the “Utah Way” — as a model for government and business in the post pandemic environment.

Webb: The Utah Debate Commission and the University of Utah did a terrific job staging this debate. It was fun to watch the national media focus a bit on Utah and see Utah landmarks on network TV and cable networks. By all measures, this was a successful effort and the debate itself was enlightening for voters.

Trump announced that he will not participate in a virtual debate. Are debates over for this election season and what will they look like in the future?

Pignanelli: Earlier, Trump wanted more debates to demonstrate his prowess on stage. But the strategy has shifted to more rallies and these matches are a distraction, so there is unlikely to be any more this season. Future debates will mirror the Utah structure — hopefully without the plexiglass.

Webb: Trump may have simply been lobbing one of his hand grenades. Negotiations may work things out so the last two debates can proceed. Trump could win the last two debates if he would adopt the demeanor of his vice president. But Trump is Trump.

Will October’s early surprises overshadow the debates?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

SALT LAKE CITY — Wow. It’s barely October and the surprises are already coming. The nasty presidential debate was soaking up all the national news coverage. Then the COVID-19 bombshell with the president and first lady testing positive created a news media feeding frenzy. Sen. Mike Lee also tested positive.

These events propel the coronavirus to the top of election issues, but we shouldn’t forget last week’s debates, especially the stark difference in tone between the presidential mudfest and the Utah gubernatorial debate. We attempt some last-minute analysis.

What’s the fallout in Utah from the Donald Trump/Joe Biden knife fight in the gutter? Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and law professor Chris Peterson articulated their differences in a friendly and professional manner. How does the president testing positive impact all of this?

Pignanelli: “The presidential debate made history. It was the first time Americans watched TV and wished for commercials.” – Jimmy Fallon

Recent developments consigned politics to the twilight zone. Most presidential matchups are forgotten within hours. But Tuesday’s event remained a hot topic for days — which is exactly what Trump wanted.

Despite the continual onslaught, Biden did not drool or collapse, confounding predictions from his opponents. (National decency suffered a gut punch when the candidates weirdly did not use the opportunity to disavow white supremacists and violent left-wing activists.) But the impact of the president’s COVID-19 illness has pushed the debate aside and elevated the pandemic to the front of the campaign.

In Utah, voters watching the Cox/Peterson genteel discussion were treated to important deliberations of policy (i.e. a mask mandate, funding for public education, etc.). Substantial time was dedicated to the state response to the pandemic, reflecting viewer’s concerns. Thus, the positive tests for Trump and Lee now supercharges issues surrounding the coronavirus in local campaigns.

The next several weeks will determine how weird things get, now that we are in the twilight zone.

Webb: From the perspective of a candidate, the purpose of a debate is to win votes. This usually happens when a candidate demonstrates a command of the issues, presents a positive vision and plan for the future, and projects strength and confidence, while showing a human side and empathizing with voters. Drawing a contrast with one’s opponent is also important, and it’s OK when disagreements are sharp.

Utahns were treated to that sort of debate in the gubernatorial contest. Two knowledgeable and articulate candidates discussed issues and challenges facing Utah with clarity and grace. They disagreed on a number of things, but did so respectfully. I thought Peterson, as the underdog, needed to more forcefully challenge the lieutenant governor, but it was a good debate and voters learned a lot about the candidates and the issues.

By contrast, it’s beyond me how Trump could have possibly thought that being rude, obnoxious and bullying would win additional votes. Biden responded in kind, calling Trump names and getting into the gutter with him.

Trump contracting the virus won’t change things much. Democrats may not say it out loud, but they feel the president has had a cavalier attitude about the pandemic, so he reaps what he sows.

Ordinary citizens who tuned in to the presidential debate to learn about the candidates and issues instead had to cover their ears and remove their children from the room. The bottom line is even more citizen cynicism about politics.

The University of Utah is hosting the debate between Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris on Wednesday. How will this benefit Utah and what should readers expect?

Pignanelli: The vice president and senator will be on their best behavior. Both camps need to recapture voters’ respect so policy differences will be contrasted in a serious manner. Both contestants are viewed as potential presidential contenders and how they perform will be intensely scrutinized. This match may be remembered as the Pepto-Bismol debate — providing relief from political indigestion.

Millions of viewers will be grateful that Utah, consistent with its reputation, hosted a pleasant, efficient and meaningful vice presidential debate.

Webb: It’s terrific to have this debate in Utah. It will certainly not be a friendly encounter, and probably won’t even be respectful. But Pence and Harris will focus on issues rather than just yell at each other. It will be a real clash of political ideologies, providing a sharp contrast between a solid conservative and an arch-liberal/progressive.

It will still be all about Trump. Harris will attack Trump unmercifully, and Pence will have to defend Trump while pointing out the dangers of a leftist agenda. It will provide Utah voters with a clear ideological choice.

Because of the first presidential debate debacle, will future debates this year be canceled or altered?

Pignanelli: Trump’s condition may prevent future debates. If not, there will be changes. But too few or excessive modifications may cause a candidate to refuse participation, or worse … boredom by viewers.

Webb: Future debates shouldn’t be canceled, unless dictated by health considerations, but the format should be less freewheeling and the candidates themselves must agree to — and follow — some commonsense rules.

An election to match the craziest year in memory

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We believe it’s safe to say that the one thing uniting this country is a deep, common desire for the year 2020 to end (but, please, not with another disaster!). Really, can it get any weirder? In addition to the global pandemic, along with floods, fires, earthquakes and hurricanes, we have a tsunami of an election hurtling to a climax, punctuated with upcoming debates and a blockbuster U.S. Supreme Court vacancy.

Your columnists may not have answers, but we are not short on opinions.

The first presidential debate is Tuesday Sept. 29. Also, Utah’s gubernatorial candidates face off on Tuesday, with congressional and attorney general debates to follow. Will these debates live up to the hype and impact the vote?

Pignanelli: “The president must lay out his vision, forcing Biden to lay out his. Then voters have a binary choice — the kind of election Trump can win. He cannot win a referendum election.” — Chris Christie.

Winged monkeys could swoop into the auditorium, whisking the candidates away and Americans watching would shrug and sigh, “Oh well, it’s 2020”. Anything can happen in these debates, affecting all federal elections.

In 1980, President Jimmy Carter was three points ahead of Ronald Reagan prior to the only presidential debate. Because of the unexpected relative performance of the candidates, the resulting momentum propelled Reagan to a landslide victory.

Although Biden and Trump supporters are solidified, a performance exceeding, or failing expectations, will tilt the balance among undecideds. Even a perceived draw between the contenders cements the current status.

Most political debates in Utah are timid affairs with nominal impact. But, a Democratic candidate could catch his opponent unaware and score points that are leveraged in the media. Such results require real strategy and creativity.

As political geeks, we encourage readers to watch all the debates. Just be careful of those flying simians.

Webb: The presidential debates will mostly reinforce existing perceptions, but they will still be important. It’s a good opportunity for Biden to put to rest concerns about his vitality and mental acuity. If Trump would only tamp down the bombast and hyperbole (an impossibility) he could make inroads beyond his zealous base.

Some reports have indicated Trump won’t even prep for the debates. He’s constantly in front of the news media answering antagonistic questions. But he could definitely use some practice staying on message, displaying a little empathy and allaying concerns that he won’t support a peaceful transition of power if he loses. Biden will incessantly practice, and he’ll need the preparation.

The state debates will be an opportunity for lesser-known candidates to introduce themselves to voters. The 4th Congressional District debate could have a big impact on that race.

The race for the 4th District is being defined by attack ads targeting incumbent Democrat Ben McAdams and Republican challenger Burgess Owens. Will the attacks from the national political parties make a difference in this pandemic-influenced race?

Pignanelli: Without a Senate contest on the Utah ballot, activists on both sides of the Supreme Court controversy are directing resources to the 4th District contest. New Super PACs are popping up just for this purpose — guaranteeing even more nasty advertisements.

Current tactics are questionable. For decades, Utah endured a high rate of bankruptcy filings. So, personal attacks on Owens for his past indebtedness could be ineffective and antagonize many voters. Blemishing McAdams for voting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi 85% is disingenuous since most votes are technical. A similar analysis reveals McAdams and Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy are aligned almost 60%.

Webb: Attack ads work in many situations or candidates and parties wouldn’t waste their money on them. Republicans have been going for the sympathy vote with Owens, trying to make the case that everyone makes mistakes and Owens has risen above poverty, racism and his financial troubles to become a conservative star and live an exemplary life.

McAdams is fairly successfully fending off attacks that he’s a puppet of Nancy Pelosi. Former Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson did that effectively in many past elections. The question is whether this election is somehow different and McAdams is more vulnerable to a nationalization of the race.

The battle over the confirmation to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsburg has begun. What are the implications for Utah politics?

Pignanelli: There is deep uncertainty how the Supreme Court issue will impact presidential and Senate elections. When hearings begin, the resulting emotions may be unprecedented. Such over the top nastiness can spill over into Utah elections, but no one can predict when and how.

Webb: I believe most Utah voters will support the president’s nomination. Even though only U.S. senators will vote on the nomination, support or opposition to the nominee will be a fair question to ask other candidates on the ballot. The Senate nomination hearings will be an epic battle generating massive publicity. Thus, it’s a legitimate election issue.

What’s happening in Utah’s four congressional district races?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Contests in all four Utah congressional districts are underway. While traditional retail campaigning is limited, this does not stop the usual posturing, accusations and spinning of messages. We explore some of the details.

The competition in the 4th District between Ben McAdams and Burgess Owens has become a heated fight, at least in the TV advertising. What is the status of the race?

Pignanelli: “National Democrats are attacking a Utah Republican congressional candidate for his indebtedness and bankruptcies. What better qualifications for Congress could anyone have?” — a seasoned political observer.

The 4th Congressional District race is a funhouse mirror reflection of the presidential election — distorted but recognizable. The Democratic candidate enjoys high approval ratings and affection from all political types. But some have angst with left-wingers of his party. The Republican nominee has a compelling personal story of courage and tenacity. Yet, he frequently courts controversy with spontaneous remarks. As with the national contest, undecided voters are navigating between the two personalities.

Other elements counterbalance each other. For example, McAdams has amassed a huge war chest. Conversely, he will not have the benefit of three ballot initiatives attracting flocks of voters.

In 2018, the Utah County portion of this district was strangled by mass confusion with mail and in-person voting. The new County Clerk, Amelia Powers Gardner, increased the competency of the elections department by 1,000% after assuming office in 2019. This will mean a smooth process for her constituents and could impact the race.

Polling results are forcing Democrat and Republican national parties to expend resources on this race. Thus, Utah airwaves will be blanketed by their ridiculous, cookie-cutter uncreative ads. Whoever hires local talent with a compelling message will dominate voter considerations.

As with amusement park mirrors, this race will be entertaining.

Webb: McAdams is popular and moderate. His ads portray him as a fiscally conservative, nice family guy who wants unity and problem-solving. Meanwhile, he’s sticking a knife between Owens’ ribs.

Owens only wins if he ties McAdams to liberal national Democrats. McAdams helps Democrats stay in control of the House and push left-wing legislation. Owens has to make the case that when Nancy Pelosi needs McAdams’ vote, she gets it (like to impeach the president).

But I think Owens was slow getting his campaign going after the primary election. He hasn’t defined himself well or framed the election, and all the scary Democratic attack ads are hurting. Owens needs a really big turnout from Utah County conservatives to have a chance.

The other races: District 1 is an open race to replace Rob Bishop, with Republican Blake Moore vs. Democrat Darren Parry); District 2: Four-term incumbent Chris Stewart is opposed by Democrat Kael Weston; In District 3, two-term incumbent Republican John Curtis is facing Democrat Devin Thorpe. What are political operatives saying about these races?

Pignanelli: The huge number of Republican voters in these districts provides a massive head start for their party’s nominee. Further, the pandemic limits the ability of Democratic challengers to utilize retail campaigning. As with Donald Trump, there will be limited coattails from Joseph Biden.

All three Republican candidates were not the early favorites, yet they succeeded with strong messaging and sound strategy. The Democratic nominees must construct a similar approach to attract GOP voters. Regardless of the outcome, all contestants should be commended for creating competition in the marketplace of ideas.

Webb: Even though Blake Moore is a newcomer and is barely known, he’ll easily win the 1st District. Kael Weston is putting up a feisty challenge against Chris Stewart, and getting under his skin, but he’s too liberal for the district. Stewart certainly needs to mount a campaign and reconnect with voters, but he should enjoy a healthy victory margin.

Devin Thorpe is a great guy (I know him personally), but so is the moderate incumbent John Curtis. Thorpe doesn’t have enough time or resources to build sufficient visibility to defeat the popular incumbent.

Local races to watch as candidates sprint to the finish

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Labor Day is in the rearview mirror and political contestants are sprinting to the election finish line. Most focus has been on national, gubernatorial and congressional races. But throughout the state, candidates are waging neighborhood battles for votes for county and legislative offices. Here is a peek at some of these contests now catching the attention of political observers.

Salt Lake County mayoral contest. Jenny Wilson, elected to the at-large county council seat in 2014 with 53% of the vote, was appointed mayor upon Ben McAdams’ election to Congress. So this popular member of an Utah legacy political family is running for a full term as mayor. She has already achieved countywide electoral success in prior council elections. She’s a smart and articulate politician who understands retail politics and is a consummate fundraiser.

Her opponent, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, has launched the most aggressive challenge to an incumbent of this office in decades. He is not solely riding the GOP label, but rather is reaching out to new categories of voters who are frustrated with county bureaucracy or desire a different perspective. Lawn signs have been appearing for months demonstrating that Staggs’ approach is gaining traction.

Campaign experts and political observers are debating whether the presidential race, or the gubernatorial and congressional contests, will have any coattails for either mayoral candidate. The coattail effect will likely be mixed. Clearly, Wilson’s and Staggs’ performance in November will help determine this effect and political trends in Utah’s largest county.

Analyzing legislative contests is a key activity for many political operatives as these low-key races reveal trends, movements and issues that are not always apparent in the major contests. This is especially important in the pandemic-influenced elections.

These hotly-contested local races, especially in swing districts, are truly revealing of undercurrents and forces. Thus, the following legislative elections are being closely watched.

West Salt Lake County. For many years, this geographic region has been classified ”swing” as voters cross the ballot for partisan selections. This dynamic is a major feature in 2020. Key races include:

District 33 — Every two years, Republican Craig Hall defies the numbers of this West Valley Democratic-leaning district. Fatima Dirie is offering a challenge to Hall, who never takes his seat for granted.

District 38 — Incumbent Eric Hutchings is facing Democrat Ashlee Matthews in this Kearns area swing district.

District 22 — Popular incumbent Sue Duckworth is retiring. Her vacancy is fostering a spirited race between Democrat Clare Collard and Republican Anthony Loubet in this Magna and Kearns seat.

District 30 — Republican Mike Winder (a Utah election would not be complete without a Winder on the ballot) is wrestling with Democrat Robert Burch to keep control of his West Valley seat.

District 39 — For years, everything, including the proverbial kitchen sink, was thrown by Democrats and liberal organizations at incumbent Jim Dunnigan — who survived and flourished in his swing district. Lynette Wendel is trying hard to change that in Taylorsville and Kearns.

East Salt Lake County. In Senate District 8, former GOP Sen. Brian Zehnder is seeking the seat Democrat Kathleen Riebe won against him in 2018. This is the top Senate race in the state.

Republicans think they have a shot to win two additional House seats in this area of the county. In District 46, Democratic incumbent Marie Poulson is retiring. Democrats are offering Gay Lynn Bennion to counter Republican Jaren Davis.

In District 44, incumbent Democrat Andrew Stoddard is challenged by Republican Kyle Bird.

Republicans are fighting hard to defend their incumbents in District 49, where Robert Spendlove is opposed by Democrat Siamak Khadjenoury, and District 45, where Steve Eliason is challenged by Democrat Wendy Davis.

Summit and Wasatch counties. District 54 — Incumbent Republican Tim Quinn is retiring, which is a true loss for the state. Many politicos have wondered for years if the infusion of new residents into Park City and surrounding area would change the district political demographics. This will be tested in the race between former Wasatch County Council member Mike Kohler and Democrat Meaghan Miller, from Park City.

Weber County. District 10 — Democrat Lou Shurtliff served for many years in the House and then retired. She returned in 2018. Republicans believe Travis Campbell has a real shot at the seat.

Other races politicos are watching in northern Utah include District 8, where incumbent Steve Waldrip is facing Democrat Oscar Mata, and District 9, where Republican Calvin Mussellman is opposed by Democrat Steve Olsen. In District 11, Republican incumbent Kelly Miles is in an unexpected fight with Democrat Jason Allen.

Shaping Public Opinion: How to Change Billions of People's Opinions (and Not Get Caught)

• Wednesday, September 16, 2020

• 12:00 PM  1:00 PM

Learn from an industry expert who helped Fortune 50 companies like Facebook and Walmart understand their customers and how campaigns are using these strategies with voters. He will share specific strategies used and how to take that information and develop powerful persuasion campaigns — all while telling the hard-hitting, brutal truth and tales from the trenches. 

James Rich is vice president of insights at Y2 Analytics. He is a skilled researcher with a background in both qualitative and quantitative methods.

He specializes in developing and testing language and communications strategies, and executing custom primary research including; focus group moderation, questionnaire design, survey management, data analysis, insight integration, and qualitative research administration for clients of all backgrounds.

James is focused on impactful research that leads directly to business results. He has driven growth working for and with Fortune 50 companies like Facebook, Walmart, PepsiCo, and key policy influencers like the Nuclear Energy Institute and National Homebuilders Association. He's helped these companies improve customer experiences, product strategy, marketing and comms strategy, brand perception, and customer relationships. For Walmart, it was over $10B in growth understanding the grocery shopper; for Facebook, it was helping create understanding in times of crisis.

James is a graduate of Brigham Young University and has an MBA from the Sam Walton School of Business at the University of Arkansas. He also serves as an adjunct professor at BYU teaching survey methodology in advertising. 

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