It’s the dog days of summer, and these political topics are just as hot

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

We are officially suffering through the dog days of summer. The warmer weather and even hotter political confrontations could impact elections less than 90 days away. Hopefully, our nifty analysis will bring cool relief.

Political observers were surprised that a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll showed a tie between Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams and Republican challenger Burgess Owens (35% each, 24% undecided) in the 4th District. Is this result signifying a Republican trend?

Pignanelli: “The coronavirus could not have emerged at a worse time … amid a heated presidential election built upon months of vitriol, accusations, and competitiveness —Eduardo J. Gómez and Sandro Galea, professors of public health

Disease alters politics. This lesson from the 1918 pandemic is instructive again in 2020. Then, the party controlling Congress (Democrats) suffered a beating in the wartime midterm elections and the GOP assumed control of both houses, which had not occurred since 1908. Similar elements are in play 102 years later. This summer, numerous incumbents faced fierce internal party challenges — some did not prevail.

There is intense unease as Americans endure economic uncertainty, massive protests and a relentless virus. So, as Congress continues to fruitlessly dally on economic assistance packages, voters’ angst is reflected towards pollsters and in the polls.

This is likely happening in the 4th Congressional District. The fact McAdams won by a slim margin against a tough incumbent does not explain the current status of the race. McAdams garners high approval ratings and is aggressive in demanding government integrity. He should be in a stronger position against an unknown challenger.

Other unpublicized research is revealing similar results. So, both national parties will dump resources into the race. McAdams needs to demonstrate he abhors the ridiculous wrangling happening in Washington DC. Burgess, possessing a great personal story, must make it relatable to today’s events.

Since the federal government is split, candidates in both parties should heed the lessons of 1918.

Webb: These survey results are surprising because Burgess isn’t well known and tends to be a bit too far right for the 4th District. McAdams is well-liked and his Democratic Party affiliation hasn’t seemed to bother voters in the past. So it’s possible that this survey is an outlier. Additional polling is needed to confirm the status of this race.

It’s also possible that voters are “nationalizing” this race as Republicans hope they will. I believe a majority of Utah voters aren’t excited about Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Chuck Schumer taking over the Congress and taking it far to the left. The result will be even bigger government and higher taxes. That’s a strong argument against sending a Democrat (McAdams) to Congress to help ensure a Democratic majority.

However, most Utah voters don’t nationalize these contests. They vote for the local candidate they like most and don’t worry about the national ramifications. Further survey research is needed to get a real handle on this race.

The protests in the streets have transformed into intense arguments over schools. The Hinckley Institute/Deseret News Poll indicates 48% of Utahns want schools open while 31% demand closure. Will the fight over real or virtual classrooms impact elections?

Pignanelli: This is a true no-win scenario. If there are outbreaks after schools are open —over the objections of teachers — many officials will face intense scrutiny. But if schools are closed, and students remain healthy (which we hope), then haggled parents may seek vengeance in November for over-caution. Candidates must be careful and strive to demonstrate sensitivity to all concerns. Blustery one-sided statements could be fatal.

Webb: I strongly believe the default position should be that schools open and students get back in class. There are variations and combinations, of course, and parents should have flexibility to send their children to school or use remote learning or home-schooling.

I personally believe the damage caused by keeping students home is greater than the risk of opening schools. Keeping schools closed is an education concern, an economic concern and a mental health concern, as well as a health issue.

There will still be a substantial amount of online learning, and perhaps teachers who are at health risk, or who don’t want to return to the classroom, can handle those duties. However, at some point some teachers may have to make a choice to stay in the profession or not. A national publication recently published an article by an ICU nurse who said she’s been on the job every day at great risk to herself and her family — and teachers should feel the same obligation.

In Utah, coronavirus case counts are dropping but deaths are increasing. Where does this push political activism?

Pignanelli: During the 1918 pandemic, Americans who protested mandates while doubting the need for the protective garment, established “Anti-mask Leagues.” Because overall numbers are dropping and fatalities are overwhelmingly relegated to an older and compromised population, similar organizations may pop up this year.

Webb: We need to realize that we all are going to have to settle in for the long haul to combat COVID-19, while saving the economy. It’s not going to be over in a few months. The more we’re willing to cooperate, compromise a bit and follow good health protocols, the better off we’ll all be.

Is Utah in play for Biden’s presidential bid?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

A recent UtahPolicy.com survey revealed President Donald Trump was only three points ahead of Democratic nominee Joe Biden (44% to 41%) among Utah voters. Considering that the last time the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was 1964, these numbers created a stir among local and national politicos. We explore the ramifications.

What is happening in such a red state? Does Biden have a shot of winning Utah’s electoral votes or will Trump’s tiny lead expand before the election?

Pignanelli: “The president must change both substantively and stylistically, his approach to the American people. If he does that … there’s plenty of time for him to come back and make this a race he can win.”— Chris Christie A long-held axiom of the human condition is an individual’s greatest strengths can, under stressful situations, be lethal shortcomings. The pandemic is creating such challenging affections for politicians.

Trump was elected and revered by many, because of his brazen willingness to disrupt the status quo. But more radical changes to society are caused by a raging pandemic. All Americans were harmed to some degree by the virus. So, many no longer value or desire disruption instigated by leaders. Trump is having difficulty pivoting to a different role — as reflected in national and state polls. Biden on the other hand turned the usual criticism of him as an aging Washington, D.C., insider into a source of comfort for Americans.

Utahns appreciate Biden’s grandfatherly approach and sense of compassion. But Utah is a red state, and many will be receptive to the attacks on Biden by Trump (i.e. too close to Bernie Sanders, weak on riots, etc.). If Biden is still very close in mid-October, then there are much greater forces in play on a national level.

“The Great Disruptor” was usurped by a microscopic foe and must find a new persona to survive.

Webb: I concur with the conventional wisdom that voters tend to come home to their parties as election day nears, although nothing is normal with Trump. But I believe Trump will enjoy a fairly comfortable win over Biden in Utah, even though a lot of voters will hold their noses.

Most mainstream Republicans (like me) don’t really like Trump personally. We clearly see his deep and multiple character flaws. But, in the big, bad real world out there, we’ll vote for Trump because we don’t want to turn the nation over to Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. That lurch to the far left is even scarier than four more years of Trump and his gigantic ego, incessant and juvenile tweeting and his bullying and personal attacks.

In addition, most smart Utah Republicans want to see an ideologically conservative U.S. Supreme Court. Another Trump term would almost certainly deliver it, along with many more conservative judges on lower courts. Trump’s judicial impact could be his presidency’s most important and lasting legacy and is critically important to the nation’s future.

Finally, most smart Utah Republicans agree with many of Trump’s overarching policies (with the exception of immigration), even though the execution has been erratic.

If Trump loses nationally, and there’s a good chance he will, it won’t be because of his big policy initiatives like cutting taxes and regulations and a more muscular foreign policy. It will be because of his personal character flaws.

When the history of Trump’s presidency is written, it may be a story of wasted potential, of opportunity lost, because of the president’s unpresidential behavior on silly, inconsequential things.

What impact will the presidential race have on Utah elections, especially in the 4th District?

Pignanelli: Unless there is another catastrophe (please, no!), neither presidential candidate will provide coattails for local candidates. Indeed, the opposite may occur. Trump is not popular in the 4th Congressional District, providing Ben McAdams an unexpected advantage.

Further, because both national nominees are a mixed bag, congressional and state candidates must fashion their responses to the pandemic and visions for the future. Thus, no free rides for anybody.

Webb: The presidential ticket probably influences local elections by only a few points. But a few percentage points may make all the difference in the 4th District. Given his money and name ID, incumbent Democrat McAdams remains the favorite to win.

Because of the unexpected close race between Trump and Biden, will Utah be considered a battleground state and receive attention from the presidential campaigns?

Pignanelli: Evan McMullin pulled enough votes to make the 2016 race in Utah a much closer contest between Hillary Clinton and Trump, resulting in interest from both campaigns. If Biden continues to fare well in the larger battleground states, he may run up the score by appealing to potential swing voters in red states like Utah.

Webb: Biden has been hiding in his basement, hoping Trump will implode (pretty good strategy). But in this weird, pandemic-abbreviated presidential race, both candidates will have higher priorities than Utah to focus on in the last months of the contest.

What would the original Pioneer Day look like with Twitter and Zoom?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

This weekend we celebrate a very unique Pioneer Day. Re-warming an insightful, serious intellectual exercise we perform every few years, we contemplate what Brother Brigham’s entry into the valley might have been like, along with comments from other political personalities, using Zoom, tweets and facing a modern pandemic.

by@prophet.org: Just emerged from the mountains. What beauty and what potential. It was a long trek to social distance away from Nauvoo but, unless the jackrabbits are infected, we are safe from the global scourge.

by@prophet.org: You’re invited to a Zoom meeting to get organized. Please wear Sunday best for the cameras. No overalls, Levis or pantaloons. No backdrops of Hawaiian beaches.

by@prophet.org: I call many of you to settle small towns and cities across the state, each 10 miles apart — perfect for social distancing.

by@ldsprophet.com: Please wear your masks at our Saturday evening square dances, but avoid looking like stagecoach robbers or you might be shot.

Spencercox.lg@wokerepublican.com: Important agenda item for Zoom meeting: Naming everything “Deseret” since that name has no baggage and no one will want to change it 170 years from now.

gary.herbert@mostpopulargovinamerica.com: I can help organize this wilderness. I see WalletHub recognizing us as best-managed territory.

utahcountyactivists@nevertooextreme.com: No offense brothers and sisters, but we wish to establish a separate colony 45 miles south of that big salty lake. Here we could create a paradise with no threat of independent thought, diversity or face masks.

utahtechies@wecandoanything.net: Do not worry about anything. We technology companies just arrived, and can apply our skills to solve any problem ... including quick, reliable testing for global scourges.

jennywilson@slcomayor.org: In our enlightened SLCO, we mandate masks (even for Zoom meetings) and sheltering at home (except for protests). I promise to fill the scriptural need for “opposition in all things.” You are welcome.

erinmendenhall@thatotheroutspokenmayor.com: We will establish a capital city as a safe place for protesters, bicyclists, vegans, tree-huggers and any other “woke” causes

.derekmiller@bizguy.com: I envision a great opportunity for businesses to move lengthy wagon trains of goods through a land port near that salty lake. Certainly, there could be no opposition to such a great idea.

mlmmarketers@utoocanberich.com: Eating lean buffalo meat and walking 20 miles a day kept us healthy crossing the plains. But now we need nutritional supplements! And a superior economic model! Given our camaraderie, we can each sell to 10 friends, who can sell to their 10 friends, who can sell to their 10, and so on. Prosperity abounds! (If you get in early!)

dc@utahcoveniencestores.com After a hard day making the desert blossom as a rose, everyone will need cool refreshment. We sense a business opportunity with a 64-ounce dark, carbonated bubbly liquid — low in calorie but very addictive.

seanreyes@agforce.net: I will protect our people against the evils of the federal government ... while they receive PPP loans.

chrispeterson@longshot.com: Let us make permanent the pioneer custom of splitting wards along party lines. I’d have a fighting chance to become governor

!gregskordas@goodlookingandexperienced.com: Justice is blind, and so should be politics. In this new territory voters should be blindfolded so they can’t see who they’re voting for.

mittromney@lovetopoketrump.org: I am truly blessed to immigrate to this mountain paradise by private jet after serving the lobster state of Massachusetts. While I was unsuccessful seeking our nation’s presidency, I appreciate the voters of this pioneer state giving me the opportunity to publicly antagonize the current White House resident.

mike.lee@wannabeasupreme.com: I will stand guard night and day against attempts by the feds to spy on us. Continually rereading the more exciting passages of the Constitution will keep me alert for this important duty.

snooty@whycantutahbelikecalifornia.com: The really cool, smart and rich will settle in Park City, where we will one day view independent cinema and slide down snowy hills on skinny boards.

Stuart.adams@senprez.com: I envision a group of leaders, called senators, providing a public refuge of wisdom, peace and tranquility to counter the impulsiveness of the lower body.

Brad.Wilson@housechief.com: I envision a group of leaders, called representatives, providing energy and entertainment, and a place where Senate bills come to die.

benmcadams@reallyhatesnukes.com: This is a place we can come together and stop nuclear weapons testing in the nearby foreign land of Nevada and provide a safe, popular issue as I seek reelection.

burgessowens@superbowlchamp.com: I know I was brought here to put my conservative skills to use, honed on Fox News, to defeat all those liberals and socialists who are undermining the nation.

johncurtis@lovetobequirky.org: This is the place where a moderate mayor in a conservative county can be elected to Congress and can social distance by riding into the sunset atop a two-wheeled motorized contraption.

Chrisstewart@jetguy.com: Such a bountiful place where I can write books, fly planes, hang with the nation’s spymasters and still get great fry sauce.

robbishop@baseballnut.com: This desert has blossomed nicely with Diet Dr. Pepper, Triple-A baseball and very few Democrats. Truly a promised land!

Obnoxious.pointless@deseretnews.com: Yes, that’s Frank and LaVarr. We’re just happy to so far avoid tar and feathers in this great place!

School reopening and pandemic politics: Will voluntary mask up efforts succeed, or is a mandate necessary?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to generate emotion, multiple perceptions of reality, and episodes of irresponsibility, courage and resilience. Such dynamics guarantee that politics is afoot. We ruminate on contested issues impacting the political landscape — and our health.

A major source of pandemic contention in the nation and state is whether government should mandate mask wearing while in public. Meanwhile, private institutions are encouraging voluntary compliance — as they should. For example, Deseret News Opinion Editor Boyd Matheson recently called for a 55-day mask-up crusade to scale back the virus by Labor Day. Inquiries from national organizations have been received over this intense volunteer effort. Should state government mandate mask wearing, or will voluntary appeals succeed?

Pignanelli: “Wear a mask, unless you want to be intubated by a gynecology intern who did her last semester of med school via Zoom.” — Dr. Emily Porter, emergency physician

State leaders missed an opportunity. They should have appointed the individual with Jedi master skills who could compel citizens to wear a mask by utilizing the greatest force in the universe — guilt. I am referring to my Irish Catholic mother. Her Yoda abilities of imposing self-reproach would soon have all Utahns wearing masks with deep contrition for past omissions.

The emotions fostered by masks are pulling officials in opposite directions. Even the compromise crafted by Gov. Gary Herbert of requiring masks just for public schools is generating vocal opposition from many parents. Lawmakers are raising legitimate questions how to enforce a comprehensive mask mandate without looking like a police state.

Even dedicated advocates of opening the economy in a green phase (including me) understand unequivocally that wearing a mask is the most efficient activity to contain the virus. This is driving alternate voices including Matheson’s call to arms and the compelling campaign “stay safe to stay open” launched by the business community.

These “Utah Way” voluntary efforts must succeed, or a mandate is in the future. (Of course, Mom is always available.)

Webb: Opinions are firm and emotions are high on mandatory masks. It’s always better to willingly do what’s right, rather than be forced by the heavy hand of government. Mask-wearing enforcement is tough, but we could publish names and images of violators on Frank’s Facebook account, a virtual wall of shame. Cameras are everywhere, so beware. Personally, my wife says I look a lot better when most of my face is covered, so I have no problem donning a mask.

While local governments should be able to impose mask sanctions if they wish, a statewide mandate is not necessary. The state is too diverse and conditions vary too much for statewide compulsion. For example, my wife and I have been social distancing at our farm in the remote northwestern corner of Box Elder County. The nearest humans are a mile away, so no need to wear a mask. However, I find I don’t scare the cows, chickens, dogs and coyotes as much when I cover up my ugly mug.

The federal and the Utah governments are under scrutiny in the media and by political opponents on managing the COVID-19 crisis. Did our leaders act appropriately and where is public opinion going on this?

Pignanelli: Other countries have succeeded in persuading their populations to comply with restrictions. But Americans are not Danish or New Zealanders. We have a rough independent streak, creating issues for government leaders. Remember, our immediate ancestors were similarly obnoxious and stubborn — while defeating fascism, communism and other challenges.

Americans do demand competence with basic functions in the public and private sectors. So, their litmus tests for government will be consistent reliable testing and a strategic approach to vaccinations.

Webb: Liberals and the media have been critical because the Trump administration and governors have not issued harsh nationwide and statewide stay-at-home and mask-wearing mandates. Sure, such edicts might have reduced the virus spread. But Americans simply won’t stand for dramatic constraints on their freedom, even for health reasons. Americans are more independent and leery of government decrees than denizens of many other countries. Also, our system of federalism, a fragmented governance structure with sovereign states, doesn’t lend itself to dictates from on high. We can strike the right balance without onerous compulsion.

Leaders are doing their best with the information at hand. No one can be fully prepared for something like this. Criticism is easy, especially in hindsight, and especially from those hanging out on the sidelines who don’t have to make the quick and tough decisions.

Utah school districts are developing a variety of approaches to opening schools this fall with online and/or classroom participation. Should kids go back to school?

Pignanelli: Elementary school children suffer milder ramifications of the virus. School programs provide incredible needed services (i.e. nutrition, preventing abuse, expanding learning, de facto childcare for working families). The schools must fully reopen.

Webb: Local districts properly have the authority to make reopening decisions based on local conditions. Parents should be able to determine whether children go to school or learn online. But, in general, I believe we should absolutely get the kids back in class, taking all feasible steps to keep them safe.

Utah COVID-19 Mask Requirement Status

Background

Perhaps one of the most politically divisive topics that emerged through Utah’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the urging, suggesting and mandating the public to wear a face covering or mask. At the onset of the pandemic the general public purchased (or hoarded) available masks, leaving store shelves empty. Originally, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) did not make any strong recommendation for face coverings, and even questioned the effectiveness of masks against the spread of COVID-19. Greater emphasis was placed upon social-distancing, frequent hand washing, and use of hand sanitizers and other good hygiene practices. 

Within about a month of publishing the original guidelines by the CDC, a change of course was promulgated where the use of masks or face coverings was espoused as a primary defense against contracting and spreading COVID-19. Utah’s government leaders embraced this revised recommendation from the CDC and began “recommending” the use of masks in public places or in locations where social distance would be hard to be maintained. However, public adoption of the mask-wearing was generally slow to be adopted. Few, if any large retailers (other than Costco and later Harmons Grocery Stores) took the initiative to require face-coverings before entering their stores. Generally, the remainder of the State of Utah, and especially the rural parts of the state, were extremely lax in mask-wearing.

Government Intervention

With the relatively low case counts, and low person-to-person infection rates, Utah moved its color-coded guidance level from ORANGE (Moderate Risk Phase) to YELLOW (Low Risk Phase) for most of the state. Under the Yellow phase the “Utah Leads Together Plan” provides the following recommendations for mask wearing:

While wearing face coverings has proven to be somewhat effective in slowing the spread of COVID-19, they will not completely eliminate the risk of COVID-19 spread. Therefore, sound judgment, physical distancing and hygiene practices are important principles that must accompany appropriate use of face coverings

• Face coverings (e.g. mask, scarf, gaiter, bandanna) worn in public settings where physical distancing measures are difficult to maintain

• Change or launder cloth face coverings after each day’s use

• Cloth face coverings should not be placed on young children under the age of 2, anyone who has trouble breathing, or is unconscious, incapacitated, or otherwise unable to remove the mask without assistance

Unfortunately, it was perceived by government officials, upon moving into the Yellow phase, that many of Utah’s citizens became lax in their observance of previously developed social-distancing observance and the wearing of masks. Almost immediately, Utah began to see massive spikes in COVID-19 infection rates.

In response to the rising trend, many local governments decided to take it upon themselves to request approval from Governor Herbert to allow them to adopt local health department orders requiring the use of masks. As of today, mandatory mask orders have been approved by Governor Herbert for Salt Lake County, Summit County, Grand County, and the City of Springdale. However, it is believed that none of these local governments have any intention of enforcing these local orders, but rather have placed the burden upon local businesses to remind, insist, or require that their customers wear masks within their businesses. Additionally, Governor Herbert has required that masks be worn within State Buildings but has declined to issue a statewide mandate, drawing much criticism from Democrats, moderate Republicans, and medical professionals.

Public Education

On Thursday, July 9, 2020, Governor Herbert held a press conference and ordered that all students, teachers, staff, or visitors that enter into K-12 public schools, public charter schools, or buses for these schools will be required to wear masks. This order has been criticized by some as an attack upon constitutional liberties and parental rights. In order to help facilitate these efforts, the State of Utah has acquired massive quantities of masks, which will be distributed throughout the state to school districts. Meanwhile, parents are evaluating alternatives for their children, while considering health and mask wearing concerns. Plus, the ever-changing school scheduling is a significant element in parental decision making on this subject. 

What’s Next

Governor Herbert and the executive team will be meeting this week with legislative leadership to discuss the topic of a statewide mask order. During the bi-weekly Economic Recovery Task Force Meeting on July 13, 2020, Speaker of House Brad Wilson (who is unquestionably a supporter of mask-wearing) laid out a plan to focus the state’s efforts on key COVID-19 response factors. However, Speaker Wilson stopped short of recommending a mandatory mask requirement. When challenged on this point, it was his position that mask-wearing should remain voluntary, not mandatory. Based upon this position, and previous positions recommended by President Stuart Adams of the Utah State Senate, it is believed that a statewide mandatory mask requirement is not likely to be adopted by Governor Herbert. 

Various organizations are increasing efforts urging Utah's to wear masks. For example, Deseret Management (owner of KSL TV and Deseret News) are pushing the challenge articulated by Editorial Editor Boyd Matheson for Utahns to spend the next 55 days wearing masks in order to scale back the virus by Labor Day. 

However, if case counts explode, as seen in nearby states like Arizona and California, it may be difficult for Utah to avoid political pressure to adopt a statewide mandate. Such efforts are already being led by Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Chris Peterson, who called for a statewide mask mandate during a press conference this morning. 

How did Cox win, and what was the impact of COVID-19?

Utah’s unprecedented primary election, conducted in the middle of a global pandemic, provided some remarkable results. We take a look.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah’s unprecedented primary election, conducted in the middle of a global pandemic, provided some remarkable results. We take a look.

How did the young upstart Spencer Cox from Fairview narrowly defeat Jon Huntsman, one of Utah’s most famous politicians ever, from a prominent Utah family? Any lessons to be learned?

Pignanelli: “Never ask if a campaign is winnable, because the question is not answerable. No one can predict the course of the future. Completely unforeseeable shifts in the tide of events can result in campaign victory.” — Elizabeth May

Spencer Cox’s campaign is frequently described as a David versus Goliath battle. But the Hebrew warrior is famous for just one successful hurl of a rock while the Lt. Governor achieved a series of important feats on his path. Thus, I suggest Cox is a modern-day James Braddock. This “Cinderella Man” rose from impoverished obscurity by defying the odds — and experts — to world heavyweight champion. (The movie of his life is great.)

Over many years Cox developed a strong presence in social media. This helped him obtain signatures for the primary ballot placement, with volunteers and not paid professionals. This was a huge deal and a loud signal for what was to come. The well-respected Sen. Deidre Henderson agreed to be his running mate. Then Cox/Henderson defied expectations of everyone — including their supporters — by overperforming with delegates at the state convention. Along the way, financial contributions were diverse and many. These accomplishments indicate consistent momentum.

While deeper research is needed, an unexpected lesson is unaffiliated and Democrat voters who switch party registrations generally follow the trajectory of the Republican vote. This was manifested in a number of races. (So, protests by GOP activists may be unwarranted.)

Cox’s operatives used 21st-century technology but reaffirmed a traditional rule of campaigns — develop your strategy and never waver from it. Cinderella stories in politics are entertaining yet require intense planning and effort.

Webb: I must admit that I didn’t think Cox had much chance when Huntsman got into the race. I underestimated the genuine affection Utah voters have developed for Cox. Most Utahns just really like the guy, and that allowed him to withstand three strong opponents and criticism over the state’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also benefitted from the competent management for the last several years by Gov. Gary Herbert, who endorsed Cox.

Some observers have said Huntsman would have won had the election been only between him and Cox. I don’t believe it. I think Greg Hughes and Thomas Wright took more votes from Cox than they did from Huntsman. Without them in the race, Cox still would have won.

As I’ve mentioned previously, I would have been happy with any of the four candidates as governor. It would have been exciting to have Huntsman, with his experience, global relationships and vision, return to lead the state. But, assuming Cox wins in November, I believe he will be an excellent governor and take Utah to new heights.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the election?

Pignanelli: All four candidates excel in public presentations, especially former Gov. Huntsman, who possesses rock star charisma. But the pandemic denied the contenders these important campaign opportunities. Consequently, Cox’s social media presence (already a crucial tool) became a huge bonus. Furthermore, his appointment to lead the state governments efforts in combating the coronavirus was an unexpected and unique advantage. Utahns high approval of the Herbert administration during this crisis was a benefit to Cox.

Webb: The pandemic forced all candidates to reinvent campaign strategy on the fly, including how to connect with voters from a distance. Huntsman’s campaign activities were restricted when he contracted the virus himself. With no in-person election-day voting, candidates had to plan for earlier voter decision-making. Mastering social media and digital technologies was crucial. Each candidates’ innovation, flexibility and competency was tested in dealing with an entirely new campaign environment.

The pandemic performance of the Herbert administration (including Cox) came into play toward the end of the election as virus cases spiked. Cox’s pandemic task force leadership certainly cut both ways. Initially, it gave him positive visibility as the state seemed to be effectively navigating the health crisis.

But Cox’s leadership also provided his opponents plenty of fodder for criticism, especially as election day neared. Many Utahns wanted more restrictions and many wanted fewer restrictions. Cox was caught in the middle. He also had to provide leadership while avoiding the limelight to some degree so he couldn’t be accused of showboating and exploiting the crisis.

If Cox wins in November, will his administration strike a new tone, or simply be a continuation of the Herbert administration?

Pignanelli: Herbert consistently appointed many competent individuals that Cox may retain to help through the pandemic. But the virus will ultimately force a different approach by the new administration on many matters.

Webb: I think Cox will surprise Utahns with his energy, vision and competency. He will be Utah’s first natively tech-savvy governor and he is an excellent communicator on all platforms. He faces formidable health, economic and social/cultural challenges. But he will perform well and Utah will be in good hands.

2020 Primary Election Update 7.6.20

2020 Primary Election Update

July 6, 2020

as of 4:00 p.m.

The election updates continue! At 3:00 this afternoon the state released approximately 25,000 additional votes in the Primary Elections. The races below reflect the most current vote counts. We will continue to update you as the numbers arrive in these races that are too close to call. Once these races have been settled we will send a complete election report.

Statewide Races

Governor: Former Speaker of the House Greg Hughes and Former Republican Party Chairman Thomas Wright have both conceded the election, leaving two candidates: Spencer Cox and Jon Huntsman Jr. (Republican Primary) - The most recent results have Spencer Cox leading Jon Huntsman by 9,309 votes, or 1.83%. 

Today the AP called the race for Spencer Cox.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Congressional Races

CD1: Bob Stevenson v. Blake Moore. With challengers Kerry Gibson and Katie Witt previously eliminated, Blake Moore currently holds a lead of 2,629 votes, or 2.13%. 

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Utah Senate

Senator Wayne Harper maintains a lead over Karen Hyatt by 267 votes, or 2.18%.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Utah House

Representative Kevin Stratton is still in a fight to hold his seat against David Shallenberger where Representative Stratton leads by 54 votes or 0.64%. 

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Primary election continues wild and crazy year of pandemic, plunging economy, protests and politics

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Happy July Fourth weekend! A good time to reflect on that great American pastime — politics. The recent Republican primary reflects everything about 2020 — confusing, unsettled, unprecedented, trendsetting and certainly interesting. Although some races were too close to call at our Thursday noon deadline, we do our best to hit some moving targets.

Did the push to register unaffiliated voters and Democrats make a difference in this election? Is there still a possibility of a surprise in any contest? Any trends worth watching?

Pignanelli: “Politics ought to be fun. It shouldn’t be just boring meetings.”— Jim Hightower

This primary election is a high dosage of the drug to which all of us political junkies are addicted. We are geeking out over unusual numbers and developing hundreds of different scenarios. Our machinations are all very weird but also fun (although anxious candidates aren’t amused). For example, many of us are wonking over details surrounding the voter affiliation movements. On Jan. 1, 2020 there were 675,205 active Republican voters. By election day this jumped to 780,555. The facts are indisputable. The overwhelming number of these registrations were for the purpose of voting in this primary — very likely for one gubernatorial candidate.

But this new infusion also impacted other races. Freshly minted GOP primary voters are believed to have voted late and therefore other close races could be altered by this dynamic.

So, freaks like me will be anxiously waiting to see how many switch back to original affiliations. We pray for a professional survey to determine the thought process behind this historic twist.

Other elements also need to be examined. Could this be the beginning of a trend that party affiliations are a fungible personal decision — easily altered depending upon the circumstances of the election? Will centrist candidates of either party pursue a similar strategy of appealing across the political spectrum in a partisan primary?

Webb: If you’re a political junkie, you gotta love the gubernatorial race. It was David (Spencer Cox) vs. Goliath (Jon Huntsman). There was intrigue. There was big money. There were spoilers. There was cross-voting. There was the unprecedented context of a global pandemic hitting Utah hard, an economic collapse, plus local and nationwide protests and riots.

If Huntsman wins, he can thank two factors: 1. Greg Hughes and Thomas Wright siphoned conservative votes away from Cox. 2. An unprecedented number of unaffiliated voters and Democrats registered as Republicans and Huntsman won a large share of those votes.

If Cox wins, it will simply be because Utah voters really, really like this smart, positive, upbeat, empathetic young man from little old Fairview.

Win or lose, it’s remarkable how well Cox did against the Huntsman juggernaut. He took a twice-elected former governor, former ambassador to China and Russia, and the scion of a Utah royal family right to the political brink. That’s an amazing achievement. It demonstrates Cox’s popularity and shows he has a bright political future in Utah if he chooses to stay in the game.

If Huntsman wins, he has the experience, leadership, stature and relationships to take the state to unprecedented levels of success.

David Leavitt ran a strong race as a criminal justice reformer against incumbent Attorney General Sean Reyes. His ideas deserve strong consideration no matter who wins.

Some races have been called. Were there any surprises?

Pignanelli: The strong showing of Burgess Owens in the 4th Congressional District raised many eyebrows as many expected the race to be tighter. Thus, Owens’ appeal to the new unaffiliated voters may be an element in the general election against Ben McAdams. So, neither candidate should take them for granted.

Lyle Hillyard is a 40-year legislative veteran. All expected a tough challenge by Chris Wilson, but the surprise was the margin defeat for Hillyard. This race, and real (and potential) losses incurred by other incumbents, reveals tax reform remains a hot issue.

Webb: I was surprised that Burgess so easily won the 4th District nomination. The gloves have quickly come off for the general election against Democratic incumbent Ben McAdams. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee sent out a hit piece against Owens even before the race was called in his favor. The Republicans have been going after McAdams for months. Owens badly needs to appeal to moderates, not just the Republican base. McAdams, with his Boy Scout persona (somewhat like Cox) will be hard to beat.

What can Utahns expect if one of the major races comes down to a difference of just a few thousand votes?

Pignanelli: Expect to hear phrases like “Chasing voters after the election,” “Harvesting ballots,” Lawyering Up” — which describe the activities performed by campaign operatives in razor thin elections.

Webb: Recounts will finalize a winner, if necessary, and we will move on with new leadership.