Big election Tuesday: Will it be Cox, Huntsman, Hughes or Wright?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

For many reasons, the Republican primary election on Tuesday will be unique, historic — and very important. Here’s a glimpse of what to expect, watch and otherwise enjoy as election results roll in.

How will a multitude of dynamics (pandemic, economic crisis, Trump, new voters, protests, etc.) impact the gubernatorial primary?

Pignanelli: “It’s never been clearer that the country needs to be able to vote by mail. Utah shows the way … how to save elections from a pandemic.”— Eric Cortellessa, Washington Monthly

A free electron is an unattached particle that is free to move under the influence of external forces, oftentimes with unpredictable observations. The difficult to predict 2020 primary is similar in nature — unbound by traditional political constraints while affected by external pressures. The unprecedented horde of Utahns switching registration status to participate in the primary will be analyzed for many years. Meanwhile, a multitude of conjectures will flourish as to how this strong but unusual element played a role in the results.

The pandemic is percolating fears that will also be reflected voters’ choices. Jobs, health care, schools and return to a normal lifestyle will be considerations when marking a ballot. This is substituting for the usual ideological arguments that occur in a primary contest. Equally important, the coronavirus has incentivized thousands to participate in a partisan contest they would have ignored in other years.

Hopefully, there will not be a repeat of the difficult environment surrounding this election in future elections. But the campaign tactics used by candidates’ campaign, especially because of the limitations mandated by social distancing, will affect politics for generations. Our elections have forever been altered; we just do not know how yet.

Free electrons are strange things but an integral element of nature. Similarly, elections in difficult times are a necessary fundamental of democracy.

Webb: Utah is in uncharted territory holding hotly contested multi-candidate primary elections amid a global pandemic crisis, civil unrest, and an economic meltdown. Candidates have had to reinvent how to connect with voters.

I subscribe to the conventional wisdom (and polling indications) that Spencer Cox and Jon Huntsman Jr. are locked in a very close race that could go either way. Utah can’t lose, because either candidate will be a very fine governor.

Greg Hughes and Thomas Wright are also solid candidates who have run good races with sufficient funding. Politics is all about timing, and while this election may not be their time, they both could have bright political futures. It’s also possible Hughes will do better than expected on Tuesday if the conservative vote turns out strongly.

As the frontrunner for most of the campaign, Cox has had a target on his back. His state pandemic response leadership cuts both ways. Utah leaders won praise for the state’s initial response, but as the health and economic crises wear on, voters are getting grumpy and those in charge get the blame.

Personally, I think Gov. Herbert and Cox have dealt superbly with the multiple crises facing the state. It’s always easy to criticize from the cheap seats. It’s a lot tougher to be on the field throwing strikes and balls — and the inevitable wild pitch.

Huntsman, with his immense stature, should be walking away with this race. He is likely the biggest beneficiary of voters crossing party lines and registering as Republicans.

It’s going to be fun to watch!

Will other primary elections also feel the effects of these and other dynamics?

Pignanelli: Politicos will be fascinated by the effects of the new voters on the down ballot races, including the other statewide race for attorney general. There has been limited campaigning by the contestants — especially in comparison to other matches. So do voters rely upon the incumbency of Sean Reyes or the fresh face of David Leavitt, brother of a former governor?

The four-way contests for Congress in the 1st and 4th districts have been aggressive battles, but the new crop of voters will be the quiet determinants of results. Almost a dozen incumbent lawmakers are facing intraparty challenges. But the otherwise controversial issue of tax reform maybe be diluted by the newcomers with other agendas.

Webb: I wouldn’t dare to predict the outcomes of the two congressional races, featuring mostly unknown candidates. One certainty is that the Republican who wins the 4th District race will face the unenviable task of taking on the very popular incumbent Democrat Ben McAdams.

The attorney general race has been the most negative of all the contests, and it could be close. Leavitt has a great platform as a criminal justice reformer, but it’s a hard case to make with conservative primary election voters.

Is there a potential for major surprises?

Pignanelli: One of the federal and legislative battles could emit a surprise that few hypothesized.

Webb: Even in ordinary times, primary elections are notoriously unpredictable because turnout is capricious. The winners will be those who ran strong grassroots campaigns and got their supporters to the polls.

From Black Lives Matter to the Supreme Court ruling, why the silence from Utah politicos?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Important developments in politics and society can be discerned not just from statements and actions of officials and the electorate, but also by what is unspoken. We have recently witnessed important examples of this phenomenon.On multiple days, full page ads in Utah’s daily newspapers featured a large “#Black Lives Matter” logo, sponsored by at least 300 prominent businesses, other entities and individuals. Also, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled last week that employers may not discriminate based on an individual’s sexual orientation and transgender status. Other than some minor grumbling regarding the constitutional basis of the court decision, the response was crickets from most Utah politicos regarding these major societal changes. Why the silence?Pignanelli: “Change comes like a little wind that ruffles the curtains at dawn”— John SteinbeckThe corporate public embrace of Black Lives Matter and comprehensive prohibition of discrimination against LGBTQ citizens was met with the most powerful of reactions among Utahns … a shrug. This quiet show of acceptance indicates a substantial undercurrent of support for these endeavors.This quiet evolution has major ramifications for elections this year and forward. Candidates will be adjudged — in both parties — on sentiments of sexual orientation nondiscrimination. Furthermore, as was reflected in the recent gubernatorial debate, a sensitivity to the challenges African Americans face is now a prerequisite. Technology is a substantial reason for these shifts. The 1960s civil rights movements gained traction with the televised attack on protesters. The homicide of George Floyd, captured by iPhone video, touched billions. Entertainment and social media stirred similar passions of fairness towards the LBGTQ community.

2020 is a tough year so far, but it will be remembered when Utahns heartily approved major transformations with respectful serenity. Webb: To be fair, most Utah politicians have issued carefully-worded statements decrying racism and police brutality in response to the deaths of black citizens and the resulting protests and riots. Most politicians also embrace new attitudes on sexual orientation. However, these issues have clearly not had the robust debate common for such monumental matters. Most politicians and writers (me included) are still trying to figure out how to discuss these issues. It’s easy to say the wrong thing, even when well-intended, and be accused of racism. Change has occurred at whiplash speed, and most of us old white guys are standing around with our mouths hanging open trying to interpret what it all means. We obviously didn’t fully understand the deep, festering wounds and anger over racism that exploded into protests and riots. In very short order, police department policies are being reformed. Legislation is being passed in Congress and in every state. Statues are coming down, popular consumer products are being discontinued or changing names. Buildings are being renamed. Some action is symbolic, some is substantive. Most of these developments are very positive. But debate on these matters shouldn’t be stifled for fear of being labeled a racist. Going too far with police restrictions could be dangerous. Defunding the police would be insane, and sometimes force is necessary. Minority communities will be disproportionately victimized if crime skyrockets. We can’t drive good officers from the profession. We need robust discussion. The daily number of coronavirus infections continues to be almost double the level of a month ago. Again, few responses. Does Utah need to step back into more restrictions that were in place in late March? Pignanelli: The numbers are troublesome. COVID-19 cases have been increasing daily for weeks, with a higher positivity rate. Even more aggravating is the silence surrounding other numbers. The hospitalization and mortality rates have been fairly consistent, 7% and 1% respectively, for months (94.2% of deaths were at “high-risk”). But these statistics must not be ignored when considering the damage to our economy and society. They suggest that we can move to the least restrictive category, while mandating face masks in appropriate circumstances and safe interaction with higher risk individuals. Webb: We’re not going back. We’re going to tolerate a certain level of infections, hospitalizations and deaths so that the economy can rebound. But we absolutely need to observe good health protocols and we old folks who are in the high-risk categories need to hunker down and take extra precautions. I’ll poke my head up when we have a good vaccine. Mail-in balloting has emerged as a major controversy for elections primaries in states across the country. But little is being said in Utah. Why is that, and will any problems occur in the June 30 primary? Pignanelli: Another great example of the “Utah Way” is how we process democracy. Over 90% of Utahns mail ballots through a system that had some rough starts but is now fairly smooth. Because of the pandemic, ballots will be quarantined, then counted by staff enduring social distancing. Results will be valid, just late in coming. Webb: Utah has shown that voting by mail is safe and that it increases voter participation — which is good. The reason it’s not controversial here is because Utah is a Republican-dominated state, so if a few more Democrats vote than would otherwise be the case, it’s no big deal. But if Utah was a swing state where a handful of votes could mean a Democratic win, Republicans wouldn’t be so cheerful about mail-in voting.

The Cries Beyond the Picket Line

Town Hall

Machi Johnson 6/10/2020

My brother-in-law has been deployed a few times throughout the years and each deployment brings a new unique set of stress, fears, and patriotism for my family. But his most recent deployment, this time to Washington, D.C., has been drastically different from the previous ones. No doubt we are still proud of him, but we can’t say we are proud of our country. This is perhaps the most challenging call of duty for him yet, and his perspective deserves to be known.

The media has done a great job crafting the protests to look peaceful. But, from the perspective of the men behind the picket line, it is anything but that. For his first shift, my brother-in-law was stationed outside of the White House and behind the perimeter fence that had been set up after protesters set fire to the guard station. Protesters threw anything they could find, including bricks. At one point, some got hold of wire clippers and begun to cut holes in the fence in an attempt to climb through. Tear gas was released in an effort to keep them from storming the property. The next couple of night shifts were more stressful because, instead of being stationed behind the line, he was out patrolling the surrounding blocks. He was not issued a weapon but was given a face shield, baton, and body shield to protect himself. They were instructed to avoid escalating any situation no matter how provoking. This was one of the more challenging parts of his mission because throughout the night he had bodily fluids thrown at him, was spit on, and was followed by groups of protesters as they yelled some of the most horrific and baiting slurs at him. Homemade devices were crafted to disperse tobacco sauce and urine in the eyes of those patrolling. Mortar fireworks (commercial grade) were set off to explode at him and his comrades. Worse, he was wearing deployment patches and protesters looked up information on the internet about the badges and discovered the state he was from and attempted to find personal information about him and his family. The media is not reporting the widespread use of drugs by protesters either. The air was filled with thick smoke from weed and other harder drugs. He mentioned that some areas are so awful that the guards became ill and had to be taken off duty.

The “peaceful protesters” openly used because they knew arrests wouldn’t be made unless immediately necessary. Between shifts, the guards dedicated their time cleaning off the defaced national monuments and picking up the trash left behind. The most infuriating moment came when my family received a text that my brother-in-law and his unit were being kicked out of their hotel. It was 3 a.m. on the East Coast, and his unit had just finished another long night. When they returned, they were informed that instead of getting a well-deserved nights rest, they would need to pack up their belongings and wait until they could find new lodging. They waited and waited. Finally, at some point in the afternoon, they were bussed to a motel outside of the D.C. area and were able to get a couple of hours of rest.

The relocation was blamed on a “budget complication,” but I don’t buy it. If it were a budget issue, are we really supposed to believe that it couldn’t be resolved? The guardsmen had to be completely relocated out of D.C. city limits, even though hotels still have frighteningly low occupancy levels due to COVID-19? It is simple: They were kicked out of the very city they were protecting and cleaning. I am frustrated with the local D.C. officials who prioritized politics over American heroes who were there to serve their city. I am also appalled by the hotel for not standing up to the local officials, working to overcome whatever “budget issues” there may have been, and giving my brother-in-law and his unit the night’s sleep they deserved.

It’s worth mentioning that the final day of protesting turned out to be a beacon of positivity for the soldiers. After days of harassment and exhaustion they were relieved to find that peaceful protesters showed up and personally policed the bad apples from escalating to rioting like the previous nights. Our nation is in turmoil over an important conversation. But I assert that the very core of what makes the United States one of the greatest countries in the world is the heart of patriots. Nothing is more unifying. There are no greater patriots than military men and women. They have seen and done things that we will never know or appreciate, so that we can keep our constitutional rights to hold these protests. But as soon as we start disrespecting the men and women who have fought for our right to show up and protest, we lose what level of influence we had to start. Shame on those who spit in the face of a military member who left their spouse and children at home to keep us safe.

Those who threw their own bodily fluids on the uniform of a soldier are a disgrace, for they may as well have done that to every military person who has ever sworn an oath to defend and protect them. That’s not America, and that’s not patriotism. When I look back at the riots in Washington and the rest of the country over the past several days, I can’t hear the message the protesters were trying to make because it is drowned out by the heartbreaking cries beyond the picket line of every person who has served to make this the greatest country in history.

Machi Johnson is a Utah native and a second-year law student at the University of Kentucky.

The politics of the pandemic: What the balance between restrictions and freedoms?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact politics nationally and locally. How officials respond is dividing citizens not just in traditional ways (party, geography, income, etc.) but by personal perceptions of the disease danger. This reaffirms the old adage that everything — even disease — is political. We offer our insights. States and communities are reopening for public activities while the number of COVID-19 cases are increasing and health officials are becoming alarmed. What pressures is this placing on policymakers and candidates? Pignanelli: “Those in public authority must retain the public trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing or put the best face on nothing.” — John M. Berry, author, “The Great Influenza” This new technique to divide Americans and Utahns is awful. One side is demanding the maintenance of social distancing requirements and restricting public gatherings until a vaccine is ready. Others (including me) are pushing an immediate reopening of all activities while urging vulnerable individuals practice a safe lifestyle. Unfortunately, the split is causing nasty cross accusations (“You care more about restaurants than grandma”; “Your concerns are way overblown,” etc.). Oftentimes it is surprising to learn who defies demographic and ideological predilections in choosing a position.

A handful of lawmakers and local government officials are bravely creating a platform for other political and community leaders to use in articulating a needed statement. Utahns must be told the unvarnished truth — the coronavirus is forever with us. Sustaining the pandemic restrictions until “something “changes” fosters a false hope. We can adjust interactions with the elderly and health compromised to lower mortality. But, the unspoken harsh reality is our society has not dramatically altered lifestyles in reaction to other threats. We tolerate the risk of death from diseases, automobile accidents, drug overdoses, etc. while promoting massive efforts to prevent occurrences. A similar approach is warranted as we can no longer choke our economic, educational, artistic, religious, cultural and charitable activities because of the current pandemic.

Those good people inhabiting the shelter camp should be respected for their humanitarian inclinations. So those of us on the other side must reach out and unify as the natural and unstoppable course of reopening develops. Webb: With lots of data and experience, we may conclude, in retrospect, that shutting down the economy was an overreaction. Or perhaps not. Perhaps we should have been even more restrictive. But here’s what policymakers and business leaders must do until an effective vaccine is available: Using good data and all the science we’ve learned in the last few months, determine what level of infections, hospitalization and deaths we can handle, and are willing to tolerate, so that the economy can survive and grow robustly. That may sound callous, but it is reality, and politicians should be honest about it. We simply can’t tamp down the economy forever, and opening up does mean more infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, we already do precisely that with many other dangerous things. Our goal is zero highway deaths. But we actually tolerate a certain number of deaths because we don’t mandate that cars be built like tanks, and we allow travel at 80 mph rather than 20 mph. We allow unhealthy lifestyles, like smoking and using alcohol, knowing that a certain level of deaths will result. We must strike the right balance between freedom/prosperity and safety/restrictions. Personally, I’m willing to risk an 80-mph freeway death to get where I need to go with dispatch. And I’m willing to risk coronavirus infection by going to the grocery store or meeting with a client. Of course, we must take appropriate precautions in both examples. And certain people at high risk should be extra careful whether driving or risking exposure to COVID-19. Media reports regarding COVID-19 testing continue, including stories about problematic federal results and accusations against the public-private partnership TestUtah.

A prominent gubernatorial candidate received wrong test results from a county health department. Could government competence during the pandemic be a major “11th-hour” issue for the primary election?

Pignanelli: Because Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox is leading the COVID-19 state task force and is consistently topping various gubernatorial primary polls, he is the expected target for opponents. The controversies are easy to exploit in campaign communications.

Webb: Certainly, the state response to the pandemic is a legitimate political issue. But I think most voters understand that leaders have been doing their best operating with little information or precedent at the pandemic’s outset. Utah’s performance has been pretty good, despite some mistakes. Recent polling indicates the gubernatorial primary is essentially a close, two-person race between Cox and Jon Huntsman, Jr. What’s the latest? Pignanelli: Political experts who once dismissed the effect of unaffiliated voters registering as Republicans to vote, are suggesting this unusual dynamic could be a reality.

Webb: Huntsman is a fine leader with remarkable state, national and international experience and outstanding relationships. Cox is smart, capable and just a terrific person that everyone likes. It’s too close to call. (For the record, Greg Hughes and Thomas Wright are also excellent candidates.)

Race relations, riots, compassion — and Utah politics

The protests, both peaceful and violent, along with demonstrations of compassion and government reactions, will influence elections and politics. With appropriate sensitivity, hopefully, we explore.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

After the record-setting heat and boiling emotions of last week, cooler temperatures are a welcome relief on all fronts. But the protests, both peaceful and violent, along with demonstrations of compassion and government reactions, will influence elections and politics. With appropriate sensitivity, hopefully, we explore.

Hundreds of American cities experienced violent protests after the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police officers. How will the responses by President Donald Trump, Congress, governors and city officials impact national politics?

Pignanelli: “We are one American family … united in common values, belief in equality under the law, basic respect for public order, and the right of peaceful protest.” — Former President Barack Obama

A shiny silver lining does glow in these dark clouds dominating our horizon. The disgust and condemnation of the circumstances surrounding Mr. Floyd’s torture and death was absolute and universal. Police officers were clearly outraged. This is a hallmark of our national character of which we should be proud.

Americans grasp this comprehensive condemnation by all demographic elements and sympathize with public statements demanding change and action. But they do not understand if everyone agrees, why is violence and vandalism occurring? These senseless actions, and the perceived confused response by some officials, is creating a sense of insecurity. In such chaos Trump thrives. Further, he understands the power of symbols and will use them repeatedly to communicate strength and willingness to provide protection, especially to solidify his base.

Our political history is replete with examples of leaders using tough talk, and sometimes action, to bolster their campaign messaging (i.e. Richard Nixon in 1968) This is especially powerful when the episodes of violence are frequent, ubiquitous and close to home (as are the current protests). So, a range of candidates will reuse the traditional stands against the dangerous elements plaguing the streets.

But there is a new symbol developing — that all politicos must understand. The recurring image of a well-armed policeman or guardsman “taking a knee” with protesters instantaneously demonstrates both strength and compassion. This is another wonderful silver lining.

Webb: The death of George Floyd is a tragedy and should prompt introspection and a commitment in all of us to improve and treat all people with love and equality.

From a purely political perspective, this whole matter hardens attitudes and positions and cuts both ways. As usual in this crazy political environment it also becomes all about Trump. His hard positions on rioting and violence infuriates liberals in Congress and the big cities.

But in the heartland, in the smaller communities across America, ordinary people watching the cities in flames and police officers being attacked with bricks and bottles are horrified by what appears to be anarchy. Trump is their hero.

While all reasonable Americans want justice for George Floyd and want to improve race relations, the riots and violence haven’t united America, but have furthered the divide. Politicians will follow their constituents.

Personally, I am repulsed by the treatment and death of George Floyd, as I am by all such horrific incidents. The resulting protests have helped me understand the pain and depth of feeling among black Americans and other minority groups. I know I am not as empathetic and understanding as I should be. I can listen more and be more committed to civility, inclusion and racial harmony.

I reject the notion, however, that we are a racist country. I do not agree that systemic racism proliferates in our law enforcement communities. Looking back at my nearly 70 years of life, I am certain we have made dramatic progress in our communities our state and our country on race relations. In fact, I believe less racism exists today than ever before. There is more opportunity and more tolerance. But we can certainly do better, and I personally commit to do so.

Salt Lake City also suffered violence, flames, vandalism and injuries. But there were also acts of understanding and compassion. How will these incidents affect elections and the relationships between state and local officials?

Pignanelli: A week ago, thousands of Utah witnessed on live television violence and vandalism. Immediately after watching a police car set on fire, many assumed a response by authorities. Instead, clearly restrained law-enforcement was on display. Because Salt Lake is the political, religious, cultural and economic “capital” of Utah, state officials will focus on how the city responds to similar demonstrations.

Webb: Cooperation and collaboration among leaders and different levels of government was excellent. Police conduct, overall, was outstanding. Second-guessers will find things to complain about but, given the circumstances, we ought to say thanks to all involved.

Will the interaction of police with people of color, and any resulting public reactions, become a permanent issue for politicians?

Pignanelli: Yes. Intense media exposure, combined with the emotions underlying protests, creates a political dynamic at every level of our democracy.

Webb: The blemishes of societal race relations are not going away soon and are incredibly complex and difficult to solve. I’ve been touched by the outpouring of positive and sensitive statements from church leaders, businesses, nonprofits and all sorts of other institutions. Many of us are committed to do better. That’s a start.

Summer weather is warming up, and so is the Utah GOP governor nomination race

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb, Contributors

Finally! Utahns are talking more about politics than about some virus. (At least it seems so in our political bubble-world.) Dominating this banter is the four-person race to become the Republican nominee for governor. This once-quiet contest has now become a heated battle with unusual issues. We have some fun with it all.

One of the hot controversies is the potential for unaffiliated voters and Democrats to register as Republicans so they can vote in the GOP primary. While this possibility has long existed, some candidates are aggressively recruiting independents and even Democrats. Will enough people become temporary Republicans to impact the June 30 primary election?

Pignanelli: “A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends upon the character of the user.” —Theodore Roosevelt

For decades, activists warned that hordes of unregistered voters would invade party primaries.

It never happened. But this year could be different — and Republicans should accept the compliment. Because of the pandemic and the recession, unaffiliated voters (most are right of center) have a legitimate interest in the governor’s race for all the right reasons (i.e., the economy, business acumen, leadership experience, etc.) Therefore, there is a greater receptivity — even among some Democrats — to cast a ballot in June when the next chief executive is in reality chosen. All the candidates and their running mates possess strong qualities and attract support across the political spectrum.

Jon Huntsman Jr. is popular with the unaffiliated Utahns. Shrewdly, his supporters are aggressively recruiting this quadrant because in a four-way race, an additional sliver of support will make the difference (and will not be delivered by cannibalizing others).

The over 600,000 unaffiliated Utahns are not reprobates. They are independent-minded individuals suspicious of labels. Especially because of the current crisis, these Utahns (including yours truly) hold a deep civic obligation to participate in this important election, regardless of the extra “paperwork.”

The GOP should be proud it fielded four strong teams that appeal beyond traditional ranks. Just accept the compliment.

(Note: My firm proudly represents the Huntsman Foundation and my wife was a political appointee of Gov. Huntsman)

Webb: Usually, efforts to register non-Republicans have limited success. It’s harder than it seems to get substantial numbers of unaffiliated voters or Democrats to register as Republicans and vote in a primary. But because this race really will determine Utah’s next governor, any Utah voter who wants a voice, who wants their vote to count, might be enticed to crash the GOP primary.

What’s more, with four solid candidates, this could be a very tight race. A few votes from temporary Republicans could make the difference. Both Jon Huntsman and Spencer Cox could attract some independent votes, although polls show Huntsman is likely the biggest beneficiary.

While some are crying foul at the prospect of the Republican Party being “infiltrated” by more moderate voters, there is nothing nefarious about seeking this advantage. Any candidate with a smidgen of sense attempts to register as many supporters as possible and get them to the polls. It’s perfectly legal and proper to recruit supporters and get them registered.

If the race is extremely close, a big registration effort could produce a win.

If unaffiliated voters registering as Republicans are perceived as altering the gubernatorial primary, could this result in election law changes? Would party leaders, lawmakers and the future governor consider abolishing party registration, or creating obstacles to switching registration, or perhaps establishing a “jungle primary” to determine the two highest vote getters for the general election — regardless of party?

Pignanelli: Primary elections are funded by all taxpayers. Fairness dictates those paying the freight deserve a ride. As the national rancor of partisanship increases, more Utahns will recoil at registration. Thus, policymakers will be pressured against further hindrances. But a bipartisan “jungle primary” is unlikely.

Webb: Ronald Reagan’s “big tent” GOP would seek to appeal to good Utahns with ideologies ranging from moderate to conservative. The elitist idea that party members must be “pure” and pass arch-conservative litmus tests, is nonsense. Most Utah independents lean Republican. The Utah GOP ought to open its primary elections and welcome all interested Utahns to help select party nominees. Such action would strengthen the party, not weaken it.

Bryan Schott of UtahPolicy.com reported that Gov. Gary Herbert urged Thomas Wright to withdraw and endorse Cox. Does this change anything?

Pignanelli: Politicos, intrigued by this gossip, flapped gums about the potential impact on the race and the “good guy” image Cox possesses. Most experts believe the matter fades …unless an opponent uses the story in a clever manner.

Webb: All’s fair in love, war and politics. There’s nothing improper about a high-profile supporter of one candidate trying to talk a competing candidate out of running. In any event, Wright is staying in the race.

What’s the political impact of the state budget collapse?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Ouch! Legislative and executive branch fiscal analysts last week predicted a major hit to the state budget as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We knew it would happen — but it still hurts. Obviously, this is an indication of an economy in free-fall. The question is not if, but how, these challenges impact politics.Lawmakers will meet after Memorial Day to review budget cut options of 2%, 5% and 10%. These recommendations will be finalized in a June special session after new revenue collection numbers are reported. All of this is occurring at the height of a campaign season and on the eve of the primary election. This is unprecedented in modern history. How do gubernatorial and legislative candidates respond? Who is advantaged or disadvantaged?

Pignanelli: “Here’s what I know about political campaigns: No matter what you map out at the beginning, it’s always different at the end.” — Chris Christie

All politicians venture through an obstacle course when campaigning. But a pandemic budget creates a new feature resembling a minefield as all Utahns will feel the pain. Weaving between the current emotional issues requires extreme dexterity to avoid a misstep. Thus, candidates cannot just broadcast ideological pablum as voters will demand a substantive response to the dilemma.Candidates need a working knowledge of the budget to craft a message demonstrating their competency. Campaigns will be inundated with inquiries regarding their position on specific funding, plans to reinvigorate the economy and views on social distancing. Because much of the electioneering will be through social media, no one can hide.Politicians who construct a plan with specifics, sensitivities and accountabilities cleverly marketed through traditional and new media will have an advantage.

Remember, the best route through a minefield is a map.

Webb: While it is unfair to blame the impact of a fast-moving international crisis on local politicians, some candidates will certainly try to exploit the situation. Whether they will be successful depends on the good sense of voters.

It’s likely that never in Utah history has state government been clobbered with a budget decline so big and so fast. Local governments face the same revenue collapse. But voters aren’t nearly as worried about government finances as they are about their own finances. Tens of thousands of Utahns are reeling under the economic shutdown.

While Utah political leaders didn’t cause the crisis, it is fair, of course, to judge their response. But it’s hard to be too critical because state leaders have been fast and forthright, making pretty good decisions on the fly with limited information and no precedent — balancing health concerns against economic concerns.

In hindsight, there will be plenty to quibble about. But critics should be asked, “What would you have done at that point in time with the information available and in the context of national and international conditions?”

The state’s actions have been measured and based on available data. The results have been quite good compared to many other states. Utah is opening back up and the virus is generally under control.

What happens politically will depend on the mood of voters come November — will they feel the government-forced economic crisis was worse than the health crisis? If so, fair or not, they might take frustrations out on those who made the decisions.

Will the election alter budget deliberations? Will the pandemic change traditional fiscal procedures?

Pignanelli: Special interest organizations will argue, with some legitimacy, their constituents should not endure the same level of budget reductions as other programs. Advocates for the impoverished, disabled and Medicaid will contend the pandemic especially reaffirms a need for adequate resources. Although the budget will be determined in a special session(s), candidates should expect that the battle over funding for many items will occur on the campaign trail.

Also, the pandemic will likely alter the process and the details in the budget. Normally, deliberations during the legislative session shield against too many external pressures. But a special session (or sessions) during the campaign offers no such protection.

Webb: The crisis affirms the wisdom of many years of conservative budgeting, socking away money in reserves, and restraining the growth of government. Frugality pays off. Unlike the feds, Utah lawmakers can’t print money or run up huge debts.

The fiscal analyst did reveal some silver linings. As has been recognized in the national media, Utah is well prepared to absorb these blows and flourish in a post-pandemic world. Why is that?

Pignanelli: As a lawmaker and lobbyist, I witnessed the careful and usually painful deliberations conducted by legislators of both parties to construct a well-managed state government structure. They received very little credit other than national organizations frequently complimenting Utah for such quality governance. Bottom line, it is a testimony to our incredible culture.

Webb: Utah has wisely spent billions of dollars in cash for needed buildings and highways. It can now bond for those capital projects at very low rates and free up sales tax money for necessary state services. With some $5.4 billion in reserves of some sort, the state has flexibility. But it would be a mistake to quickly deplete reserves. This crisis may last a long time and may get worse.

It’s the summer of the pandemic and an election. What will the political slogans look like?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Memorial Day is the unofficial start of summer. Each summer is unique. LaVarr is so old he actually remembers the “Summer of Love” (1967) when he was in high school — although Provo was quite the opposite of Haight-Ashbury in San Francisco.

Frank has enjoyed many memorable summers. Many of them are a little fuzzy — although nothing as hardcore as what they did in Haight-Ashbury.

The summer of 2020 will go down in history as the “Summer of Pandemic” — a summer unlike any of us have ever experienced. Nevertheless, life — and politics — must go on. The warm weather brings the sprint to the June 30 primary election, and voters will be inundated over the next few weeks with TV, radio, print and social media ads.

We thought candidates might need a little help developing catchy messages that really attract attention after Memorial Day. So, we’re offering a few slogans. No cost to use.

Jon Huntsman Jr. for governor: “I lived in Beijing. I lived in Moscow. I lived in Washington, D.C. So, I am never leaving Utah again. Never. I repeat, never.”

Spencer Cox for governor: “I am proud to lead the COVID-19 Task Force and the state into the recovery phase of yellow/green — which happen to be my campaign colors. Can’t argue with fate.”

Greg Hughes for governor: “Utah needs Hughes. He throws strongest punch. Early Trump supporter. Best Hair.”

Thomas Wright for governor: “Former chair of Utah Republican Party. There is no better crisis management training. And I have the funniest TV ads.”

Chris Peterson for governor: “Bank regulator. Law professor. Finally, a boring Utah Democrat.”

John Dougall for auditor: “The auditor Utah needs. I terrify government agencies and bureaucrats. I frighten recipients of taxpayer dollars. I scare Democrats from challenging me.”

Brian Fabbi for auditor: “Church accountant. It takes a lot of faith to lead the Utah United ticket.”

David Damschen for treasurer: “Just enjoying a smooth, unopposed ride. See ya at the victory party in November.”

Rep. Rob Bishop for lieutenant governor: “Good News. The commercials are correct. Wright has bright ideas, but I have the judgement (and hair).”

Victor Iverson for lieutenant governor: “It is great to be part of the Trump-flavored Hughes campaign. I can say or do anything and no one is shocked.“

Lieutenant governor candidate Deidre Henderson: “I am ready to be lieutenant governor. Eight years in the state Senate taught me how to quietly succeed without offending.”

Lieutenant governor candidate Michele Kaufusi: “History repeats. Remember the last time Huntsman picked a local official from Utah County as a running mate.”

Sean Reyes for attorney general: “Hey, Trump endorsed me. ’Nuff said.”

David Leavitt for attorney general: “The only candidate with the courage to keep his beard during the campaign.

Greg Skordas for attorney general: “Led the real-life Utah version of ‘Law & Order: Special Victims Unit.’ Try to beat that.”

Utahns for Trump: “We need a president with great courage ... and a stomach of steel who can consume hydroxychloroquine.”

Utahns for Joe Biden: “Biden and Trump may confuse facts, stumble over phrases, reconfigure history, suffer issues with harassment and speak too long. But Biden is nicer at it.”

Ben McAdams for Congress: “I survived COVID-19. Working to represent all Utahns. COVID-19 Survivor. Member of bipartisan Coalition of Problem Solvers. Did I mention I survived COVID-19.”

John Curtis for Congress: “I respect Utah voters. I gave you the best campaign commercial of 2020.”

Chris Stewart for Congress: “Squashing socialists and Chinese communists wherever I can find ’em!”

Kael Weston, Democratic candidate for 2nd Congressional District, and Devin Thorpe, Democratic candidate for 3rd Congressional District: “Supported by over 80% of convention delegates. What a victory! ... From there on it has been all downhill.”

Four Republican candidates in the 1st Congressional District: “We need a (man/woman) who can maintain the (legacy/tradition) that Rob Bishop brought to our district, but I promise to wear (socks/no sweaters).”

Four Republican candidates in the 4th Congressional District: “We need a (man/woman) who can (defeat/ obliterate) McAdams and go to Washington to (punish Pelosi/ blow up the deep state) and (seek bipartisan solutions/ preserve conservative values)

Democratic candidates in the 1st Congressional District: “Counting on another blue wave. It could happen. It really could.”

Republican incumbent legislative candidates: “This is the time for all of us to come together and solve problems. So let’s forget all those tax reform votes.”

Democratic legislative candidates: “We are doing what needs to be done: Nitpicking, second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking.”

Outside left-wing special interest groups: “Defend the Constitution and American values. Dump Trump. Vote Democrat.”

Outside right-wing special interest groups: “Defend the Constitution and American values. Fight Pelosi. Vote Republican.”

All Utah politicians: “Unite in providing self-esteem to those suffering incurable cluelessness. Be kind and read Pignanelli/Webb each Sunday.