How did Cox win, and what was the impact of COVID-19?
Utah’s unprecedented primary election, conducted in the middle of a global pandemic, provided some remarkable results. We take a look.
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Utah’s unprecedented primary election, conducted in the middle of a global pandemic, provided some remarkable results. We take a look.
How did the young upstart Spencer Cox from Fairview narrowly defeat Jon Huntsman, one of Utah’s most famous politicians ever, from a prominent Utah family? Any lessons to be learned?
Pignanelli: “Never ask if a campaign is winnable, because the question is not answerable. No one can predict the course of the future. Completely unforeseeable shifts in the tide of events can result in campaign victory.” — Elizabeth May
Spencer Cox’s campaign is frequently described as a David versus Goliath battle. But the Hebrew warrior is famous for just one successful hurl of a rock while the Lt. Governor achieved a series of important feats on his path. Thus, I suggest Cox is a modern-day James Braddock. This “Cinderella Man” rose from impoverished obscurity by defying the odds — and experts — to world heavyweight champion. (The movie of his life is great.)
Over many years Cox developed a strong presence in social media. This helped him obtain signatures for the primary ballot placement, with volunteers and not paid professionals. This was a huge deal and a loud signal for what was to come. The well-respected Sen. Deidre Henderson agreed to be his running mate. Then Cox/Henderson defied expectations of everyone — including their supporters — by overperforming with delegates at the state convention. Along the way, financial contributions were diverse and many. These accomplishments indicate consistent momentum.
While deeper research is needed, an unexpected lesson is unaffiliated and Democrat voters who switch party registrations generally follow the trajectory of the Republican vote. This was manifested in a number of races. (So, protests by GOP activists may be unwarranted.)
Cox’s operatives used 21st-century technology but reaffirmed a traditional rule of campaigns — develop your strategy and never waver from it. Cinderella stories in politics are entertaining yet require intense planning and effort.
Webb: I must admit that I didn’t think Cox had much chance when Huntsman got into the race. I underestimated the genuine affection Utah voters have developed for Cox. Most Utahns just really like the guy, and that allowed him to withstand three strong opponents and criticism over the state’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also benefitted from the competent management for the last several years by Gov. Gary Herbert, who endorsed Cox.
Some observers have said Huntsman would have won had the election been only between him and Cox. I don’t believe it. I think Greg Hughes and Thomas Wright took more votes from Cox than they did from Huntsman. Without them in the race, Cox still would have won.
As I’ve mentioned previously, I would have been happy with any of the four candidates as governor. It would have been exciting to have Huntsman, with his experience, global relationships and vision, return to lead the state. But, assuming Cox wins in November, I believe he will be an excellent governor and take Utah to new heights.
How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the election?
Pignanelli: All four candidates excel in public presentations, especially former Gov. Huntsman, who possesses rock star charisma. But the pandemic denied the contenders these important campaign opportunities. Consequently, Cox’s social media presence (already a crucial tool) became a huge bonus. Furthermore, his appointment to lead the state governments efforts in combating the coronavirus was an unexpected and unique advantage. Utahns high approval of the Herbert administration during this crisis was a benefit to Cox.
Webb: The pandemic forced all candidates to reinvent campaign strategy on the fly, including how to connect with voters from a distance. Huntsman’s campaign activities were restricted when he contracted the virus himself. With no in-person election-day voting, candidates had to plan for earlier voter decision-making. Mastering social media and digital technologies was crucial. Each candidates’ innovation, flexibility and competency was tested in dealing with an entirely new campaign environment.
The pandemic performance of the Herbert administration (including Cox) came into play toward the end of the election as virus cases spiked. Cox’s pandemic task force leadership certainly cut both ways. Initially, it gave him positive visibility as the state seemed to be effectively navigating the health crisis.
But Cox’s leadership also provided his opponents plenty of fodder for criticism, especially as election day neared. Many Utahns wanted more restrictions and many wanted fewer restrictions. Cox was caught in the middle. He also had to provide leadership while avoiding the limelight to some degree so he couldn’t be accused of showboating and exploiting the crisis.
If Cox wins in November, will his administration strike a new tone, or simply be a continuation of the Herbert administration?
Pignanelli: Herbert consistently appointed many competent individuals that Cox may retain to help through the pandemic. But the virus will ultimately force a different approach by the new administration on many matters.
Webb: I think Cox will surprise Utahns with his energy, vision and competency. He will be Utah’s first natively tech-savvy governor and he is an excellent communicator on all platforms. He faces formidable health, economic and social/cultural challenges. But he will perform well and Utah will be in good hands.