2020 is full of big political events. Here are the ones to watch
Pignanelli and Webb
Pignanelli and Webb: On the national level, impeachment and the 2020 presidential election will soak up major attention. But the new year will also feature plenty of political intrigue and important events for Utah politicians. So here’s a briefing on significant political issues and occurrences to follow in the next 12 months.
Tax reform fallout
On Jan. 21, sponsors of the referendum to repeal the tax reform package passed in the December special legislative session must submit their signatures. If they succeed, or even come close, to gathering enough signatures to place the repeal proposal on the 2020 ballot, the ramifications will be huge. Tax reform will become an even bigger issue in the 2020 gubernatorial and legislative elections.
And because tax reform was supported by establishment community and business leaders, while opposed by a majority of voters, it could suggest a shift in the state’s power structure. This could be reflected in the precinct caucuses, party conventions and the June primaries. It would also be much harder to pass meaningful tax reform in the future.
Spoiler alert: We doubt sufficient signatures will be gathered to get on the ballot.
Utah senators and impeachment
National publications are already noting the key roles that Utah senators may play. Sen. Mike Lee is busy working with Senate leadership and the White House developing strategy to acquit the president. The results could be a net benefit to his career in the Senate or other positions (like a U.S. Supreme Court appointment). The media will closely scrutinize statements and questions by Sen. Mitt Romney to see if he becomes a wild card in the impeachment trial and leads an alternative center of Republican thought.
The trial and how it proceeds will directly influence Rep. Ben McAdams’ reelection in the 4th District. If Senate Republicans are able to portray impeachment as an unfair witch hunt it will be a problem for McAdams, who voted for impeachment in the House. Conversely, if independents and moderate Republicans believe the president is guilty, impeachment becomes a nonissue (allowing other issues and the strength of the campaigns to determine the outcome).
The race for governor
Soon we’ll know if former Speaker Greg Hughes, Congressman Rob Bishop, and former GOP State Chair Thomas Wright enter the Republican nomination free-for-all. Any or all will affect strategy and the eventual outcome. Bishop enjoys a solid base in northern Utah and Hughes is beloved as an early supporter of Trump. Wright appeals to both conservatives and moderates. Thus, the current tug-of-war between Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., could expand into a larger wrestling match, providing opportunities for Jeff Burningham and Aimee Winder Newton as everyone seeks a “lane” to the nomination.
Also worth watching will be the effort to repeal SB54, led mainly by Sen. Mike Lee. Repealing SB54 would toss the gubernatorial race to delegates at the state GOP convention, pushing aside general GOP voters.
The 2020 Legislature
Utah sessions start slowly, but by mid-March, after input from constituents and all sorts of organizations and interest groups, legislators will adjust laws and budgets dealing with taxation, education, elections, air quality, transportation, health care, land use and other important issues.
Part II of tax reform, with a direct focus on education funding and the possible repeal of the constitutional income tax earmark, may emerge as the session’s biggest issue.
Changing demographics
Already, predictions are percolating that the upcoming election year could yield the highest voter turnout in history. Thousands of out-of-state transplants, native-born millennials, and increased minority populations will participate in the election. Wise strategists are advising that no political party or candidate should take anything for granted. We will know if they did a year from now.
The Democrats
Utah’s loyal opposition faces challenges and potential. Democrats could benefit from strategies that take advantage of changing Utah demographics, while also appealing to younger voters. However, they may need to confront the problem of a presidential nominee who is politically unacceptable to most Utahns.
The news media
One of Utah’s largest news sources is now a nonprofit entity, its survival dependent on contributions. Printed newspapers continue to shrink as Utahns increasingly rely on digital media for news, information and entertainment. Smart politicians and influencers will watch trends on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Google and other digital locales, including local news sites, to connect with voters and constituents.
Local government
While most attention will be focused on federal and state elections, cities and counties will continue to struggle with population growth issues, especially land-use planning and zoning. This will impact transportation, housing and even education policies.
The good news
Despite all the challenges, never in history has there been a better time to be alive. What’s more, all these issues and events will provide endless fodder for the Pignanelli/Webb column. This is truly awesome. Or a true calamity if you think we’re nuts.