The Utah gubernatorial race is heating up. Here’s where things stand

Pignanelli and Webb: “Politics is not a game. It is an earnest business.” — Winston Churchill

The Utah real estate market is hot, but no location is hotter than the governor’s mansion on South Temple. A number of Utahns are willing to devote a year of their life to raise money, travel the state, give speeches and endure criticism just for the opportunity to move into the historic residence. We look at the strengths and weaknesses of the current slate of candidates as they each seek to “take Utah to the next level.”

Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox: The undisputed leader in the polls has organized an impressive signature-gathering campaign using volunteers, demonstrating an ability to use his many social media followers. A question dogging him is whether he can financially compete with wealthy opponents. Another is that although he’s a nice guy and everyone likes him, is he “tough enough” to govern? A third is whether a win for him will simply be another term for Gary Herbert.

Former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.: On paper, this scion of a beloved family should be the frontrunner. But some Utahns seem to resent him leaving early in his second term to serve as an ambassador in the Obama administration. Conservatives also worry that he’s too moderate. But, Huntsman is immensely smart and charismatic, is a great speaker, in person and through video, and he should be able to use his extensive national and international relationships to his advantage.

Former Speaker Greg Hughes: He left the Legislature on a high note with a strong perception among insiders and some in the media as a bold and effective leader who could cross partisan divides to take on tough issues and find solutions to problems. But Hughes, loved by Trump supporters for his conservatism and early support of the president, has been quiet for a long time and has serious catch-up to do for voters to get to know him.

Businessman Jeff Burningham: The persona of a successful business leader outside of politics who will apply business principles to state government has been a successful recipe for many gubernatorial candidates. Burningham has run ads and has plenty of money to be a factor. But, so far, he has not gained much traction in the polls.

Salt Lake County Council Member Aimee Winder Newton: Her gender, energy and stated conservative positions in county deliberations could make Newton a real contender. But she faces challenges of not being well known outside the county, lack of fundraising clout and persistent rumors that her real target is lieutenant governor.

Former GOP chair Thomas Wright: Universally acclaimed as a tremendous leader of the Utah Republican Party, Wright enjoys valuable affection of veteran delegates and can unite conservative and moderate factions. He built a very successful real estate business and will have ample resources. He has a bold vision for the state. But he is almost unknown outside of political circles, and he got into the race late.Former Utah GOP Chairman Thomas Wright announces run for governor

Congressman Rob Bishop: Well, he has until March to decide.

What is the strategy for going through the caucus/convention system and/or gathering signatures to get on the primary ballot?

Pignanelli: History documents that a victory at convention does not guarantee primary win. Delegates, the heart of a party, get really grumpy if ignored. Plus, a poor showing creates momentum problems that are overcome only with expending more resources. So, spoiling 4,000 activists with extraordinary attention is still a requirement in Utah electioneering.

Webb: Most candidates will do both, which likely ensures they will get on the ballot. Hughes is putting all of his faith on delegates in the convention, and won’t gather signatures, obviously seeking to show conservatives he’s their guy. But Wright, Cox and Bishop will also have convention strength, so it’s a risky move. A perception could also exist that a convention-only candidate cares more about delegates than general GOP voters.

Are there various “lanes” or specific categories of voters these candidates will try to woo in a traditionally low-turnout closed June Republican primary?

Pignanelli: Utahns will hear much this election about so-called lanes for ultraconservatives, Trumpistas, millennials, moderates, etc. But with the potential of seven primary contenders, these avenues will have more than one participant. So, winning will require attracting and building a broad coalition beyond habitual GOP voters. This may include younger Republicans, nontraditional conservatives and independents willing to register. Such a combination will be drawn by the candidate promoting an unusual compelling message through an innovative campaign that defies conventional routines.

Webb: The fun of this campaign will be the intrigue and strategy deployed to win sufficient votes in a multi-candidate, low-turnout primary. The winner could emerge with only 30% of the vote, or even less. Turnout will be key. Getting one’s voters to the polls at vacation time will be paramount. How will the factions line up? Who will really vote?

A traditional campaign won’t work. And Utah definitely needs a runoff system.