What will the autumn political bounty bring? Mayoral race, impeachment and tax reform

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Both capitals, Salt Lake City and Washington, D.C., are providing a fall harvest of political intrigue. We are happy to pick the crops and share the bounty.

A recent UtahPolicy.com survey conducted by Y2 Analytics showed Salt Lake City Council member Erin Mendenhall with a 10-point lead over state Sen. Luz Escamilla for Salt Lake City mayor. Geography, religious affiliation and prior experience seem to be playing roles in voter choices. How will things play out in Tuesday’s election?

Pignanelli: “Politics is rough and tumble everywhere but many women recoil from the negative aspect of its nastiness.” — Melanne Verveer

Voters in our religiously diverse capital city have reached a state of nirvana, the place of peace and happiness in Hinduism and Buddhism. The recent poll documents a strong majority of them have very favorable opinions of both mayoral candidates, who are controlling positive campaigns.

Mendenhall is leading by messaging her skills as an administrator. Each candidate is popular in their respective section of the city — an advantage to Mendenhall as her eastside neighbors vote in higher numbers.

Mendenhall impressed professionals with a very strategic primary campaign, focused on her council district. Politicos are observing a similar strategy on a citywide level, through a combination of retail canvassing and traditional media. Escamilla, with a compelling personal story, is dominating portions of social media and billboards. Hopefully, the religious bigots (unattached to the candidates) will fail in their desperate attempts to influence the contest.

Optimistically, the good karma created by these altruistic candidates will result in a community and city administration with similar attributes. We can all chant to that.

Webb: Barring any last-minute developments, my guess is that Mendenhall will be Salt Lake City’s next mayor. I was disappointed to see religious affiliation injected into the campaign and I think the mere fact that Escamilla is an active member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints hurt her chances of being elected.

I was also disappointed in a letter sent by a group of LDS members to other church members (paid for by the Mendenhall campaign) endorsing Mendenhall using LDS buzzwords and phrases like “We’ve worshipped with her,” “visit taught her,” and “served with her.”

I have no problem with any group endorsing any candidate, including LDS members endorsing Mendenhall. But their letter using LDS buzzwords to hint LDS affiliation of some sort when Mendenhall’s campaign says she is “not LDS” was unfortunate. Had Escamilla’s campaign sent such a letter she would have been harshly criticized.

Last Thursday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to formalize the procedures of the impeachment inquiry into Pres. Donald Trump. Congressman Ben McAdams was the only Utah member to vote for the resolution. Will this vote have any bearing on next year’s elections?

Pignanelli: The impeachment hearings, and Senate trial, will impact Utah’s 2020 elections. Despite Trump’s blasé approval ratings, any perception he is a victim will be problematic for Democrat candidates. Conversely, a fair investigation may bolster them.

The circus atmosphere surrounding the witness depositions diminished the respectability of the proceedings. Utahns will demand their congressional delegation restore some dignity to the process. So far this is occurring. To avoid repercussions, McAdams will especially need to exude maximum probity. The standing of our federal representatives a year from now will depend on the events, and how they respond.

Webb: Impeachment will continue to be a highly partisan, highly disputed circus that will prevent Congress from solving the country’s problems. I believe most Utahns don’t like Trump’s demeanor or style, but they don’t believe what he has done rises to the level of treason or high crimes and misdemeanors.

Democrats would be a lot smarter to censure him and then work to defeat him in 12 months, rather than put the country through the impeachment charade. There is a very good chance this will backfire on Democrats, hurting McAdams.

The Legislature’s Tax Restructuring and Equalization Task Force will be conducting additional public hearings in November to discuss draft legislation outlining tax reform plans. Is there enough support for meaningful tax reform to be passed in a December special session?

Pignanelli: In the public hearings, the common refrain of most Utahns to lawmakers was “We appreciate your efforts, but please do not rush this.” Because any tax reform has winners and losers, much messaging is required. This may take more than a few months.

Webb: Tax reform is incredibly difficult and a consensus will never be reached. But it’s worth the effort and lawmakers should get it done.

Remember that Utah taxes are low, both historically and compared to other states. Rebalancing the system is essential. The sales tax base needs to be broadened. User fees, like the fuel tax, need to be boosted. We need more money for teacher salaries.

Just do it. Some people will squeal, but real political leadership is about doing the hard stuff that ensures the state’s future success. I predict no one will lose their seat over wise and necessary tax reform.