Enjoy watching legislative sausage-making? Pull up a chair

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The American ritual of redrawing congressional and legislature boundaries is well underway across the country and in Utah. News reports about the process are filled with acrimony and intrigue. We explore the considerations important to Utah politics.

What are some of the primary issues that lawmakers, interested observers and the independent redistricting commission will encounter as they prepare for a final plan to be adopted in a November special session?

Pignanelli: “The Illinois (redistricting plan) demonstrates that no party has a lock on political virtue.”— Henry Olsen, Washington Post

Thirty-one years ago my wife and I were looking for a home with the hope to someday raise children. She cared about a garage and yard. As a legislator, other concerns burdened me. Having just completed another bruising reelection effort, I demanded this new residence be located in the middle of my legislative district to prevent imaginative political operatives from eliminating my seat during the upcoming redistricting. I was obligated to protect the investment of friends and supporters, along with constituents, who elected me.

These legitimate and reasonable concerns were shared by my legislative colleagues. Often labeled “incumbency protection,” similar convictions have existed for centuries and will into the future. Admittedly, these emotions frequently collide with other elements, including population balancing, communities of interest, municipal boundaries, expanding representation in high growth areas, minority interests, etc.

Targeting incumbents with extreme boundary adjustments (aka “getting cute”) often backfires in Utah. For example, attempts to eliminate state Sen. Scott Howell and Congressman Jim Matheson through creative redistricting bolstered their reelection campaigns and political careers.

My wife and I are now empty nesters in that well-placed Capitol Hill historic home where we raised three incredible children. Another benefit to incumbency protection.

Webb: Redistricting is legislative sausage-making at its finest. If you like pure politics, pull up a chair. In congressional redistricting, Democrats will want to create a safe Democratic district, reasoning that the usual Democratic vote is higher than 25% statewide, so Democrats deserve at least 25% representation in Congress. Of course, carving out a safe Democratic district would be the definition of partisan gerrymandering — something everyone is supposed to be against. Given the reality that control of Congress may hang in the balance, Republicans aren’t likely to fulfill the Democrats’ deepest desires.

Beyond that, debate will occur over whether each congressional district should be comprised of urban, suburban and rural components. Doing so gives each member of Congress a stake in Utah’s sparsely populated wide open spaces and a concern for public lands.

In creating both congressional and legislative districts, a major driver will be the large population shifts that have occurred over the past decade. The fastest growth has occurred in Republican-dominated areas, which naturally means those regions will get more representation.

For the first time, Utah has a formal independent redistricting commission that will provide recommendations to the Legislature. Will it have an impact on the process?

Pignanelli: The redistricting commission was formally created by initiative in 2018. Therefore, it will capture media attention when presenting final proposals.

However, Senate President Stuart Adams and House Speaker Brad Wilson are brilliantly promoting alternative means of public participation other than the commission. Lawmakers conducted a series of town halls and aggressively encouraged citizens to access the “Utah Redistricting Legislative Committee” website to develop their own maps. They inspired constituents to be engaged personally in the process. Thus, an alternate source of public opinion other than the commission is developing.

Redistricting results always garner critics and opponents. But the legislative tactics will deflect attacks on the process.

Webb: In many states, independent commissions are bogged down in partisan bickering and anger. By contrast, Utah’s commission members seem to be getting along just fine — at least so far. Liberal interest groups are already demanding that the Legislature simply adopt the recommendations of the redistricting commission, despite not yet knowing what the commission will recommend. They assume the commission boundaries will be better for Democrats than the lines drawn by the Legislative Redistricting Committee. When interest groups say they want “fair and impartial” boundaries it really means they want boundaries drawn that fit their political interests.

Both the legislative committee and the independent commission will do their best to keep cities, counties and “communities of interest” together. While that is important, I guarantee it won’t be possible in every case. To achieve districts of equal population (which is required), some cities and counties will be divided and it won’t be possible to keep all communities of interest intact. Some communities will suffer a bit. To be fair, the pain should be equally split among Republican and Democratic areas.

In some states, the governor has vetoed redistricting legislation or demanded changes. What role will Gov. Spencer Cox play?

Pignanelli: A former lawmaker, Cox understands the constitutional role lawmakers play in drawing boundaries. While offering guidance behind the scenes, he is unlikely to publicly counter final results from the special session.

Webb: The state constitution gives the Legislature the duty to redistrict the state. Short of some egregious offense or power play, I doubt the governor will second-guess legislative action.

Can Utah do anything to challenge Biden’s vaccine mandate?

The COVID-19 shot requirement would establish a precedent. Expect more federal incursions, such as a national minimum wage

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

With the Biden administration and the Democratic-controlled Congress seeking to remake U.S. society with mandates and vast new programs, we’re seeing many states push back against federal encroachment and presidential executive orders. We explore these lessons in federalism.

Utah’s GOP Legislature is resisting the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for private businesses with more than 100 employees. Will the legislative effort be successful?

Pignanelli: “The tough guys at OSHA are finally treating the plague with the same seriousness as not being able to stand on the last rung of a stepladder.” — Stephen Colbert

The proposed directive from Biden to OSHA is much like the all-you-can-eat buffet at a large family restaurant — there is something for everyone to either relish or find disgusting.

Many large businesses believe the potential rule could assist them in increasing the vaccination percentage in their operations. But other companies are frightened that valuable employees will leave to avoid the jab. Vaccination advocates, concerned about the rates of acceptance among Utahns, support the decree enthusiastically. Conversely, many vaccinated citizens are aligned with anti-vaxxers in a shared alarm of government overreach. Incredibly, all this emotion is generated over a rule yet to be published.

Utah has a 174-year-old strained relationship with the federal government, and therefore passionate statements by citizens and their officials are expected. The vaccination mandate is a fertile cornucopia for speeches. Legal experts are falling on either side of whether the Occupational Safety and Health Administration requirement is constitutional. But that will not prevent serious consideration of potential actions by Utah to prevent implementation, which will be difficult. However, the practical effect of the mandate is already occurring as some organizations are using this as a leverage to jab their employees.

The potential downside is a hardening of antagonism that will jeopardize future vaccination efforts as the coronavirus becomes just another disease plaguing our society. Unfortunately, not everything in a big buffet tastes great.

Webb: Good for the Legislature for fighting a dramatic federal incursion into an arena where it has no business. Certainly, if business owners want to impose vaccination mandates on their employees, they should be free to do so. Employees can choose to remain employed or not. But the federal government should not be forcing nationwide employee mandates on business owners. Even moderates like Gov. Spencer Cox oppose such broad federal encroachment.

The vaccine mandate would establish a terrible precedent. More federal incursions are sure to follow, such as a national minimum wage that doesn’t account for the diversity of the country. The broad mandate also doesn’t recognize individual circumstances, such as employees who work from home and don’t interact in person with customers or other employees.

Republicans control many state legislatures across the country, and some of these states are going in a much different political direction than the Democratic-controlled federal government. Is this pushback by states against federal initiatives healthy for the country?

Pignanelli: For decades, movies and television painted representatives of the federal government (i.e. the U.S. Marshals, FBI, EPA, CDC, etc.) as saviors remedying the incompetence and corruption of locals. But such tales are fantasies. Our national government has become so bloated and impervious to change that even well-intentioned efforts fail. State officials developing creative solutions to problems, and challenging federal initiatives, is imperative.

Webb: It’s perfectly natural, and proper, for the states to serve as a check on the national government. Such action was foreseen and intended by the nation’s founders. The founders gave states specific constitutional language and tools to fight federal encroachment. We are a very diverse country and laws that may be fine in one state don’t work well in another. Such laws ought to be left to the states to impose — or not.

Democratic-controlled states certainly pushed back against many Trump administration initiatives, especially on immigration and environmental matters. That was their prerogative.

I’m happy to see states use lawful means to challenge federal laws and mandates they don’t agree with. We need more of it, not less. In fact, states need more tools to compete with the federal government, such as the ability for a supermajority of states to repeal a federal law or regulation.

More of society’s problems would be solved, governance would improve, and the nation’s unfathomable debt would decline with a massive devolution of programs and power from the federal level to states and local governments.

Former President Donald Trump is pushing legislatures all across the country to require audits of the 2020 election results — even in states where he won. Is there any interest among Utah legislators to seek an audit — and is there any need?

Pignanelli: Utah is the diamond encrusted platinum standard of balloting activities. Our lieutenant governor and county clerks are efficient and dedicated to fair and efficient elections. An audit is unnecessary, especially as other government functions deserve such.

Webb: This effort by Trump and his supporters is political insanity. Trump’s nonsensical crusade to overturn the 2020 election is hurting himself and his party. Even in deep-red Idaho, where Trump won big, the election deniers have demanded an investigation. No clear-thinking person on the planet thinks this makes sense.

The 2020 election is long over and the country moved on months ago. Trump and a few fanatics are showcasing the depths to which human stupidity can descend.

Washington is on the verge of defaulting; should Utahns worry?

Four major legislative initiatives are in play, each of them potentially having dramatic consequences for the economy and even society. This is one time when it’s difficult to be overly dramatic

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Washington was in major turmoil this week — even more than usual. Four major legislative initiatives were being promoted or opposed, each of them potentially having dramatic consequences for the economy and even society. This is one time when it’s difficult to be overly dramatic. We explore the impact on our local lives and politics.

Congress was focused this week on authorizing spending beyond October at the risk of the federal government shutting down. Also, the debt ceiling must soon be raised to accommodate out-of-control deficit spending. What does passage or failure mean for Utah’s congressional delegation and the political scene?

Pignanelli: “These negotiations are extremely complicated. It’s a Rubik’s cube. It’s a Venn diagram. And it’s every sort of, like, crazy mathematical thing that they’re trying to fit together.” — Leigh Ann Caldwell, NBC News

Small children often erupt in temper tantrums that are soon resolved by adult supervision. When adults have similar eruptions without guardians, the results can be disastrous.

Closure of the federal government always impacts Utah’s economy, especially through tourism, federal employees, entitlement programs, etc. Failure to raise the debt ceiling would have reverberations on credit, trade and other economic activities. Because Democrats control both houses, they will immediately be pasted with blame. However, should the stoppage last beyond a few days then all members of Congress, including Republicans, will be blemished.

Paying bills and obligations is a fundamental activity for all families. Thus, any pain suffered because of congressional stubbornness will be a topic in primary and general election battles. Frustrations with the 2013 government shutdown raised issues for federal candidates in 2014 and 2016.

Everyone watching just wants the screaming child to behave and be quiet. Similarly, Utahns don’t care about partisan bickering, they just want their officials to perform basic duties.

Webb: Republicans, including Utah’s delegation, are mostly united in opposition to raising the debt ceiling and authorizing additional spending. Since Democrats control Congress, Republicans are saying they must pass these bills on their own. Republicans don’t want to enable historic spending blowouts that dramatically expand the welfare state. And Democrats have not been willing to compromise or make concessions to Republicans.

However, Republicans open themselves to charges of hypocrisy by refusing to help on this must-do legislation. During the Trump years, Republicans routinely voted to raise the debt ceiling and pass continuing resolutions to fund the government.

One way or another, this legislation will pass. And if the government shuts down for a short period, it won’t really shut down. Essential services and payments will continue, some federal employees will get paid vacations, and the shutdown will not impact very many people.

But both sides will blame the other and attempt to exploit it for political purposes. Utah’s Republican delegation won’t suffer any real damage. However, Republican obstruction on this and other legislation could push Democrats to eliminate the filibuster process, allowing a simple majority to do anything they wish.

The $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the $3.5 trillion “Build Back Better” appropriations bill are the focus of intense wrangling — and that’s just inside Democratic caucuses. What does passage or defeat mean for Utah?

Pignanelli: Obtaining a loan to fund a home, car or other major asset is a logical and beneficial action by families. Therefore, the infrastructure legislation has broad bipartisan support. Government investment in transportation, water, broadband and other capital projects will benefit Utah. Because our state is so well managed, these federal funds will be efficiently spent.

While several of the separate parts of the larger package do have support, the overall price tag is creating serious consternation, even among the center-left. Labeled Joe Biden’s bill, the president is facing difficulty building necessary momentum across the country. Because the American and Utah economies are rebounding, his sales pitches are not resounding. Utah’s congressional delegation will not support, and will face few recriminations.

Webb: The $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill would create a historic surge in social welfare spending. It fulfills every social spending fantasy for left-wing Democrats. The real cost will be much more than $3.5 trillion, and it’s certainly not paid for, as President Biden and Democrats claim. It will create vast new entitlement programs, just when existing entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security are running out of money and need to be shored up.

I’m not as opposed to the bipartisan infrastructure bill because the funds will be used (mostly) for real infrastructure, which the country needs. Utah Sen. Mitt Romney has been a major champion of the legislation and he claims it is paid for, although that is questionable. Sen. Mike Lee is opposed.

Does Utah need another massive infusion of federal dollars?

Pignanelli: Although Legislators are still laboring to spend the billions from COVID-19 relief, federal dollars can assist in water collection and distribution, broadband and transportation to maintain our current excellent trajectory.

Webb: Utah will use infrastructure money carefully and wisely. Still, it’s sort of an embarrassment of riches. Utah has done a good job paying for infrastructure with state dollars, so the federal largesse is a big bonus. If turning down the federal dollars would reduce the spending and debt, I’d say refuse it. But the money would just be diverted to some other state or local government where it probably wouldn’t be used as smartly. So it makes no sense to unilaterally return the money.

Will Republicans win control of the House in ‘22?

A lot depends on Donald Trump and whether he continues to claim the election was stolen in 2020.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

If history is a guide, Republican congressional candidates should do very well in the 2022 midterm elections and probably win control of Congress. However, one colossal wild card will play out in this election — Donald Trump and his continued claims of massive voter fraud. The Trump factor will influence — for better or worse — both primary and general election outcomes in many races. We look at the Trump impact in Utah and nationally.

Sen. Mike Lee and four Utah House members — all Republicans — are all up for reelection next year. Will they cozy up to Trump, or try to keep him at arms length? Also, Trump is making election fraud a litmus test for his favored candidates. How will Utah GOP candidates respond?

Pignanelli: “A Republican candidate can maintain some distance but certainly can’t frontily challenge Donald Trump.” — Rich Lowry, National Review

Many neighborhoods are beset with an ever-present gossip. Despite objections to the tactics used by these gadflies, few openly challenge them out of fear of being the next target. Utah’s GOP has made a similar pragmatic cost-benefit analysis — aggravating the political yenta Trump and his supporters is not worth the resulting pain.

Trump is not overwhelmingly popular in Utah; President Joe Biden, less so. Thus, smart candidates will shout love of Trump’s policies — especially against the overreach of the current administration — while softening any support of the man.

The new book “Peril” by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa adds a new element into election discussions. They write that Lee intensely investigated Trump’s allegations of voter fraud, and eventually voted to certify the election results. Lee’s undisputed reputation as a constitutional expert now offers a shield to those who also agreed to certification.

The 2022 elections will be a true test of political acumen, keeping the busybody satisfied to avoid an attack, but also dodging perceptions of over chumminess.

Webb: Trump is making life difficult for Republican candidates across the country. Even people (like me) who voted for him and liked a lot of his policies think his brazen assertions that the 2020 election was stolen from him are absurd. By refusing to get over his loss, and demanding that GOP candidates agree with him, he’s damaging GOP chances in many races.

Trump’s fixations aren’t about policy, or what’s best for the country. Trump is, unfortunately, all about Trump. As I’ve written many times, the tragedy of Trump is that while he was smart and governed well in many respects, his deep personal flaws and toxic ego were his undoing.

Still, Trump has a magnetic hold on a diminishing, but still significant, base of the party. Republicans need him to energize the base, but they can’t win with him out front because he is so poisonous to moderates and independents.

The danger for moderates like congressmen Blake Moore or John Curtis is if a reporter asks if they believe the election was stolen from Trump, and they answer, honestly, that it wasn’t, then Trump may turn the GOP base against them.

They can probably still win in heavily Republican Utah, even if they alienate a share of hardcore Trump loyalists. But Trump makes things more difficult, especially if we end up with a true swing district as a result of redistricting.

Nationally, Trump is becoming more aggressive in endorsing and opposing Republican candidates, and he is speaking out on many issues. Overall, will the Trump factor help or hurt Republican chances to win back control of Congress?

Pignanelli: A handful in the House and one in the Senate is the minimum for the GOP to capture control. Yet in many of these swing areas Trump’s influence is mixed. While voters still retain some fatigue from his presidential antics, Trump is the absolute face of opposition to the Biden administration. Republican tacticians must be extraordinarily disciplined and strategic in using this weapon wisely to protect their advantage as the election season ramps up in a few months. Too much or too little will cost them.

Webb: Trump could be a big help to all GOP candidates if he would encourage the base to vote, criticize Democrats all he wants, but stay out of primary battles and not demand personal fealty. But he is incapable of such altruism and thus will be a net drag on the party.

Is Trump gearing up to run for president in 2024?

Pignanelli: Trump is an extremely shrewd player. By consistently vocalizing the objections to the Biden administration, he is dominating the presidential contender field. Trump wants to make his position as strong as possible as he decides to pull the trigger in late 2023. But there are number of external factors, including economy, his legal issues and others which are just too remote to predict at this time.

Webb: I think Trump is running, but I hope I’m dead wrong. Even as disastrous as the Biden administration has been (and will continue to be), Trump can’t win. But he can win the GOP nomination and doom the party to another presidential loss.

Opinion: Here’s how vaccines will become a political issue in 2022

President Biden may suffer the same fate as Harry Truman, whose plan to nationalize the steel industry was struck down by the Supreme Court.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The heat of summer is mostly over. But COVID-19, masks and vaccinations are producing plenty of sizzle both in Washington, D.C., and in Utah. We explore the ramifications.

President Joe Biden has ordered OSHA to develop an emergency rule mandating full vaccinations or weekly negative tests of employees in businesses with 100 or more workers. Some local governments and private organizations are also requiring vaccinations. Also, the Utah Legislature may consider legislation making employers liable for adverse reactions if they require employee vaccinations. Will this become an election issue in 2022?

Pignanelli: “There’s a whole legal weirdness to this issue. … People are for vaccine mandates even if a company does it themselves, but many are against the Biden administration and OSHA doing it.” — Sarah Isgur, ABC News

Our nation’s capital is consistent — faces change, but many issues do not. Harry S. Truman (a personal hero of mine) was facing a major crisis in 1952. The Armed Forces were engaged in the Korean conflict and the national economy was surging. Both activities needed steel, but a workers’ strike was imminent. Truman issued an executive order nationalizing the steel industry to resolve the dilemma. In Youngstown v. Sawyer, the Supreme Court ruled against the administration, stating the president lacked the authority to seize such private property without congressional authorization.

Biden is likely to suffer the same fate as Truman with the current Supreme Court. The rejection of his order on rental evictions suggests such an outcome. The administration is aware of the risk but maintains the realistic potential during the pendency of the proceedings, many employers will push the vaccination requirement.

So far, the business community is delivering a mixed response — signaling some view this as an opportunity to vaccinate their employees. Utah employers may take advantage of the situation, with the hope that the proposed liability legislation is not implemented.

Biden’s order will result in further hardening by the anti-vaxxers. Even those who submit will have hard feelings. Greater polarization on COVID-19 issues is the likely result (just what we needed!). These emotions will drive deliberations during the upcoming legislative session and onto the 2022 elections.

Yep, some things never change.

Webb: My wife and I are vaccinated, and I’m a big proponent of vaccinations. I believe vaccinations save lives and we need most of the population to be vaccinated to get the pandemic under control.

But I don’t think the federal government should mandate vaccinations, or force private organizations to require vaccinations of employees or customers, especially across the entire country. The country is too diverse for such a one-size-fits all decree.

Many governors, attorneys general, legislatures and business leaders are strongly rebelling against Biden’s mandate. A big question is how the coercion will be carried out and enforced. Labor Department attorneys could be fining or prosecuting thousands of businesses across the country.

I personally know workers who, unfortunately, will quit their jobs before getting a vaccination. I know some businesses already dealing with worker shortages who fear they will have to shut their doors because some employees will leave if forced to be vaccinated.

I respect the rights of private businesses to impose vaccine mandates on employees or customers if they’re willing to accept the backlash.

And I’m OK if local officials, who are close to their constituents and know what they want, impose mask requirements in schools. Salt Lake City School District is different than Alpine School District. And masks are obviously less personally intrusive than vaccinations.

Vaccine mandates will certainly be an election issue next year. It’s another example of massive federal overreach.

Recently, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints said it will not support members who seek formal religious exemptions to COVID-19 vaccine mandates from local church leaders. How does this influence political deliberations?

Pignanelli: If Utah employers enforce the Biden mandates, requests for religious exemptions are likely to cause controversy. There may be demands for legislative actions that help those seeking such exceptions. However, the church’s statement is very clear in support of vaccinations. This controversy could be an intense issue in the next 12 months.

Webb: The church is being completely consistent in refusing to sign religious exemption applications sought by members to avoid vaccinations. Vaccinations don’t violate church doctrine or practices. On the contrary, top church leaders have strongly encouraged vaccinations. So it would make no sense at all for a church leader to sign an application from a member stating that a religious exemption should be granted to the member.

While vaccinations are not a doctrinal matter and have no bearing on worthiness in the church, members who oppose and refuse vaccinations are clearly at odds with the counsel of their leaders.

Will vaccination become a litmus test for both parties far into the future?

Pignanelli: Because vaccination and masks are emotionally polarizing, strident activists on either side of the political spectrum will demand fealty by candidates in caucuses, primaries, etc.

Webb: It’s terribly unfortunate that what should be a medical/doctor/patient issue has become a highly-charged, ultra-divisive political issue. We defeated polio and smallpox with near-universal, voluntary vaccinations. We don’t have big political fights over them. It is a sad commentary on the state of politics and our society that COVID-19 vaccinations have come to symbolize our political dysfunction and acrimony. Both sides are to blame.

Opinion: 9/11 was a day that shattered an age of innocence

America had won the Cold War and was the world’s only superpower, but suddenly it was vulnerable to a group of terrorists

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Your columnists are proud to participate in this important Deseret News project remembering 9/11. We share our reflections, including the impact on Utah and national politics then and now.

What are your personal recollections of the day? Did other Utahns share such feelings and influence political deliberations?

Pignanelli: “These acts shattered steel, but they cannot dent the steel of America’s resolve.” — George W. Bush.

I was attending a breakfast event across the street from the White House that morning. After the second plane crashed, we were immediately evacuated onto Pennsylvania Avenue. I was confronted by thousands scrambling to secure transportation. Fear and panic was thick in the air. While walking the National Mall in the evening, there was a surreal scene of tanks and military equipment guarding the nation’s memorials, as if a coup had occurred.

America had won the Cold War and engineered the greatest technological advances in human history, but now the country was vulnerable to a handful of terrorists. Local leaders delivered rousing speeches and statements. Yet, their actions revealed the important element. Most politicians reflected Utah’s usual response to a crisis – work hard to solve the problem and insure no repeats. For example, Utahns doubled their commitment to guarantee the 2002 Olympics would be the safest and most efficient thereby demonstrating to the world what liberty and strength can purchase.

Furthermore, we comprehended our enemies were no longer just rogue countries, but also terroristic organizations. Officials and candidates were expected to promote measures that enhanced security and public safety. Shrewd politicians possessed a knowledge of global affairs.

As with America, our state was founded upon ideas, not geography or human-made structures. So we knew dark forces could not defeat us. But we needed to improve our economic security and strive for a society that benefits all. Perhaps a portion of Utah’s incredible success for two decades is an unconscious response to that portentous day.

Webb: Sept. 11, 2001, shattered an age of innocence. We had defeated communism. We were the world’s preeminent nation. No country could challenge us militarily or economically. We were secure in world leadership.

Then came the events of 9/11, changing much about America, leaving us feeling vulnerable in our own country and communities.

We mobilized for a prolonged engagement in a new kind of conflict, the permanent war on terrorism. Today an entire generation has grown up in the shadow of this struggle, including lengthy engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Along with millions of other Americans, I sat mesmerized, watching hours and days of nonstop television news on 9/11 and thereafter. Many of us witnessed on live television the shock and horror of large aircraft plunging into the Twin Towers. We also saw with tearful pride the heroism of first responders and the passengers on Flight 93, who crashed their airplane in a field in Pennsylvania, preventing a mass suicide attack in the nation’s capital.

For a period, we were united as Americans in patriotism and empathy. We supported our leadership. We didn’t care about politics or blame. Many young men and women volunteered for military duty.

The war on terrorism has been expensive, both in military lives lost in foreign countries and billions of dollars spent revamping our travel systems and hardening terrorism targets. History will judge whether our response was justified. But hindsight is always 20/20. We did what was best in the context of the moment. And we have prevented further mass terrorism attacks in America in the last two decades.

Did 9/11 provide opportunities in national and local politics that were utilized or ignored?

Pignanelli: The crisis could have launched efforts to maximize efficiency in government, while finding common ground among the political spectrum. Unfortunately, the petty partisans could not help themselves.

But in countless communities across the country the American resolve continued and flourished — especially in Utah. Religious and community organizations used commemorations to remind us why we should be grateful and never cease treasuring our principles. Utah kept the flame of 9/11 alive.

Webb: When America is attacked, we mobilize in unity, patriotism and purpose. But the unity doesn’t last very long. Today, America is plagued with more division, partisanship and alienation than any time in recent history. The recent chaotic and deadly exit from Afghanistan is an embarrassing and discordant bookend to the terrorism attacks on 9/11. With midterm elections looming, political conflict will only worsen at the national level.

It’s more important than ever for states like Utah to show how opposing sides with strong feelings can still work together to solve problems and achieve goals.

How should future generations of Utahns memorialize this day?

Pignanelli: Our descendants will remember this day as a wake-up call for constant vigilance toward the enemies of freedom. They should also recall with fondness how we responded to the challenge in our everyday lives. Hopefully, the commentaries will provide examples of our collective determination.

Webb: The brief period of unity of common purpose can be aspirational for those who came after 9/11. More likely, the individual stories of valor, selflessness and devotion to duty by first responders and others who sacrificed their lives on that day can serve as inspiration for many generations of Utahns and Americans.

Will Republicans retake the House in 2022

Redistricting by Republican legislatures, and President Joe Biden’s missteps could give the GOP an election advantage.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The biggest political question between now and November 2022 will be: Can Republicans retake control of Congress? Right now, Republicans are quite optimistic, and some analysts say they have reason to be. We look at the national political climate and what it means for Utah.

The party in power gets the blame when things go wrong. The debacle in Afghanistan, the COVID-19 resurgence and unprecedented deficit spending have put the Biden administration on the defensive. In addition, GOP control of redistricting in many states could tilt the playing field. Is it all but inevitable that Democrats lose control of Congress?

Pignanelli: “Biden did the right thing getting us out of Afghanistan. But he did it badly.”—Maureen Dowd, New York Times.

In 2016, many well-paid political gurus unequivocally predicted the “Blue Wall” guaranteed overwhelming victory for Hillary Clinton. In 2018, these sages declared the “Red Seawall” of Republican redistricting would protect their majority in the House. They predicted major gains for Democrats in 2020. Thus, readers are cautioned against over reliance on speculations from such “experts” regarding 2022. (Especially beware of LaVarr and me.)

Yet, history does offer some guidance. Perceptions of the 1975 Saigon evacuation contributed to Gerald Ford’s 1976 loss. The embarrassing 1980 botched rescue attempt of Americans in Iran detrimentally impacted Jimmy Carter. Bungling relief efforts by the Bush administration after Hurricane Katrina helped Democrats capture both houses of Congress in 2006. (Conversely, in 1983, after American soldiers were slaughtered in Lebanon, Ronald Reagan — who understood the power of symbolism — invaded Grenada within days to restore perceptions of strength and competency.)

Americans — a hardworking, productive people — are oftentimes required to perform well in crisis situations. They expect the same of their government.

The Biden administration has about six months to find its Grenada to demonstrate proficiency and restore prestige. Otherwise, the history books, not political pundits, will offer guidance to November 2022.

Webb: Redistricting alone could net Republicans 4 to 5 seats in the House. Smart people I talk to say it’s very likely Republicans will win the House, and they have a very good chance to take back the Senate.

Democrats understand this, and that’s why they’re so anxious to show progress by passing three key bills: The voting rights bill, which would nationalize elections in America, the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the $3.5 trillion “human infrastructure” bill that will dramatically enlarge the welfare state and the size and reach of the federal government.

The problem is, the voting rights bill and the human infrastructure bill might hurt, not help, the Democrats in the midterms. With razor-thin victory margins in 2020, Democrats didn’t really have a mandate to raise taxes, go on a spending spree, run roughshod over state prerogatives and open the southern border to millions of illegal immigrants. But they’re forging ahead anyway.

Add to that the Afghanistan disaster, surging inflation, rising crime, the COVID-19 upsurge, and an overall decline of confidence in government, and we can see why Democrats are worried.

In Utah, will the national political climate ensure victories for our four House members and Sen. Mike Lee, or will local factors be more important?

Pignanelli: Midterm election results can be weird. Candidates on a trajectory to win reelection in November often confront serious primary challenges earlier in the year, claiming the incumbent is “out of touch.” Thus, Utah’s congressional delegation must be extraordinarily cognizant in times of political turmoil and expand attention beyond a narrow vocal base.

If President Biden and Congressional Democrats are able to pivot the current challenges into clear victories, some traction could be available for local Democrats in November. But that is a tall order.

Webb: Utah is doing very well, so Republicans will have an opportunity to nationalize the congressional races and turn them into referenda on Biden’s performance and the Democrats’ congressional agenda. Lee’s approval ratings aren’t great, and he does face some formidable primary election challenges. But he’s the favorite to win the nomination and then cruise to an easy general election victory.

Congressman Burgess Owens could be vulnerable, but only if the Democrats nominate a top-notch moderate candidate who can show independence from the national Democrats.

Is former President Donald Trump a wild card that could help or hurt the Republicans?

Pignanelli: Biden gathered millions of new voters only because Trump’s personality offended them. So, strong arguments are made that Trump could be a detriment for 2022. But if Biden is viewed as incompetent and unsafe, the “good ole days” of Trump may be remembered by some with fondness.

Webb: If Republicans could use Trump strategically, so he energizes the GOP base, but stays away where he hurts, Trump could definitely help the party retake Congress. But Trump is unlikely to listen to the campaign strategists. He will do as he wishes, will continue to offend moderate Republicans and independents, and promote himself above party interests. On balance, Republicans would do better if he was quiet and skipped the midterms. Fat chance of that.

The politics of COVID-19 and mask mandates

The delta variant will determine whether pandemic politics dominate yet another election cycle in 2022.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus is raging in Utah and elsewhere. That means the emotional debate over mandatory masking and vaccination is also erupting. We explore the impacts on local politics.

The Republican majority on the Salt Lake County Council overrode the decision by Mayor Jenny Wilson and Health Director Dr. Angela Dunn to require masks in public schools in the county. Will there be political repercussions? Is this a precursor to partisan battles in 2022?

Pignanelli: “The numbers are really scary...this is not just a red state or blue state thing... COVID doesn’t care about your politics.”— Kristen Soltis Anderson, GOP pollster. Late last year on a television program, I confidently predicted vaccinations would be the central political issue for 2022. I was 10 percent correct. My errant conjecture assumed most of the population would demand inoculation. The current sizable resistance to “the jab” was unknown. But this dynamic exists and is influencing our culture, workplace, and politics.

We are in uncharted waters as to how a pandemic affects two election cycles. So even thoughtful politicos are risking mindless speculation. (But that does not stop us).

If the delta variant burns out by the fall, then other issues will predominate next election. However, COVID-19 mutations spiking case counts, especially among children, will unleash mammoth emotions this year and next. These include increased battles between officials pushing or objecting to mandates for masking and “vaxxing”. Extremists in both parties will succumb to the temptation of COVID-19 issue litmus tests for candidates, influencing delegate selection in the early months of 2022. Thus, the party conventions of next year could be referenda on government responses, mandates, conspiracies, and anything else related to the virus. Further, Utahns can expect repeat performances of Salt Lake County in other locales.

The pandemic is demonstrating that predictions are easy, but details are hard...especially for politicos.

Webb: It’s unfortunate, but understandable, that the response to the resurgent virus has become a highly emotional political issue. Not much is more contentious than government forcing parents to mask up their kindergarteners.

Neither side has much patience with the other. Some feel strongly that we should force parents to “just follow the science” by accepting mask mandates to protect children and the people they interact with. After all, we require parents to reasonably care for their children. They can’t abuse them or leave them in a hot car.

On the other side are parents and others who say a mask mandate encroaches too far on parental rights. It crosses the line and, in some cases, does more harm than good.

This is not a dry public policy issue. It’s about health, liberty, parental rights and coercion. It makes grown people cry and seethe with rage.

Personally, I believe that masks and vaccinations are critical to slowing this scary new variant and I encourage parents to have children mask up at school. But I don’t think it should be mandated.

Elected leaders appropriately look more broadly than health concerns. They take into account the feelings of constituents and the temperature of the issue. The reality is that we’re at a point in the pandemic, despite the upsurge, where many citizens have had it with masks and limitations.

I worry that a child mask mandate would spark rebellion. A law that many people oppose or ignore is usually a bad law. I encourage parents to mask up their children, but I agree with the County Council that a mandate was wrong.

Is Gov. Spencer Cox or the Utah Legislature likely to further weigh in on local decisions regarding the pandemic?

Pignanelli: The Legislature expended gallons of blood and sweat reconstructing the relationship between state and local governments for emergency situations. An immediate revisit is unlikely.

Gov. Cox is garnering national attention for his emotional but balanced approaches, coaching people to wear masks and obtain a vaccination. Although some right-wing extremists oppose such admonitions, his leadership skills are resonating. Cox is fulfilling the primary role of the state’s chief executive. Consequently, despite any minor bumps his long-term reputation and political capital will be enhanced.

Webb: The Legislature will monitor what happens at the local level and isn’t going to look favorably on jurisdictions that impose mask mandates. Personally, I believe governance closest to the people is the best governance, and I believe local governments, to the extent possible, should run themselves without interference from the legislative branch.

Given the strong feelings on both sides, how can we slow the spread of the Delta variant and potentially worse mutations?

Pignanelli: The fundamentals our parents and kindergarten teachers taught us are now critical to civilization. Of course, these include courtesy, kindness and respect towards others. There are a thousand different ways to apply these basic rules of society in response to the pandemic (wearing masks, evaluating vaccinations, etc.).

Webb: Take personal responsibility. The most important thing is to get vaccinated. Vaccinations are safe and effective. If everyone (or a high percentage) gets vaccinated the other issues go away. It’s discouraging that just when things were getting back to normal, this new variant reared up. But we can’t give up. Gotta keep fighting. Get the shot.