Is there a bluish tinge to Utah’s congressional districts?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Utah’s congressional delegation is all Republican, but could change be coming? With a closely divided U.S. House, and with redistricting this year, the political parties will be battling for every seat. Local and Washington, D.C., pundits are assessing the situation. We join in on the fun.

The respected Cook Political Report recently analyzed the nation’s congressional districts based on presidential election results. It concluded all of Utah’s seats are among the “most Democrat-trending” districts. Is this just some statistical quirk or is an actual trend occurring?

Pignanelli: “The essential feature of statistics is a prudent and systematic ignoring of details.” — Erwin Schrodinger

Regardless of whether two, three or four glasses of wine are consumed in an evening, the net effect is the same — I am more obnoxious. A similar statistical analysis can be utilized in evaluating the Cook judgment on Utah.

Despite repeated admonitions, national pundits do not fully account for the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot to diminish GOP support in just that race. The 2016 three-way presidential race (including Evan McMullin in 2016) and the 2020 contest are unhelpful indicators of partisan shift. The governor’s race provides a superior evaluation with Gary Herbert winning 66.7% in 2016 and Spencer Cox capturing 63% in 2020.

However, as conjectured in previous columns, the 2020 legislative races did reveal some partisan shifts in Salt Lake County. In addition to a gain of one legislative seat, several other incumbent Republican lawmakers experienced very close races. But this may also signify that local growth and lifestyle issues are prompting some voters to experiment with both parties.

Veteran observers (a nice word for hacks like me) are noticing that the real new trends are revealed in how Utah GOP officials are responding to societal challenges, and oftentimes including Democrats in deliberations.

The numerical additions of high-octane imbibing offer little insight to my level of loathsome behavior. Equally irrelevant are the recent presidential preferences. Because the net effect is conserved, other factors are better indexes.

Webb: Trump, a deeply flawed candidate, won 58% of the vote in Utah in the last presidential election, which is quite remarkable. Democrats also lost the 4th Congressional District to Republican Burgess Owens. Thus, Utah remains a strong Republican state.

Owens is likely the only vulnerable member of Utah’s delegation. He won’t have Trump to get the base out, but he also won’t have Trump to alienate moderate Republicans. So the Trump factor may be a wash. But Owens will need to keep the GOP base energized while solidifying support among mainstream Republicans and winning some unaffiliated votes.

The race outcome will depend, of course, on a Democratic nominee. Former Democratic congressman Ben McAdams remains a formidable opponent.

It will also depend on the national political environment. Will Utah voters tire of the big-government leftist lurch of the Biden administration and Democratic Congress? Or are they enjoying the free money being showered upon them so much that they will vote for more of it?

Will the redrawing of congressional district boundaries by the Legislature next October enhance or deflate any of these supposed trends?

Pignanelli: An interesting, but ignored, section of the this Cook Report publication is the conclusion that gerrymandering is not the sole reason in the decline of swing congressional districts. They suggest voters’ “natural geographical sorting” contributes much to the polarization.

Complete census information is still pending. Meanwhile, drawing boundaries to promote or avoid these trends would be extremely difficult — but not impossible. The good news is that the decennial redistricting process is a wild and bumpy process. Get ready to be entertained.

Webb: In 2020, Trump won every county in Utah, most by substantial margins, except Salt Lake, Summit and Grand counties. Summit and Grand are small, so Salt Lake becomes the battleground for Republicans to maintain control of all four congressional seats.

Progressives will want to carve out a safe Democratic district with perhaps Salt Lake City and West Valley City as the center. Republicans will want to carefully divide up Salt Lake County to dash those Democratic dreams.

A challenge for Democrats is the fact that the old, stable Democratic neighborhoods of Salt Lake County are going to lose representation because growth has dramatically shifted to the GOP strongholds of Utah County and southwestern Salt Lake County.

So far, is there any indication that the usual dynamics of midterm elections will not occur in 2022?

Pignanelli: In the past 70 years, the sitting president’s party lost seats in one or both houses every election but two (1998, 2002). The administration’s approval ratings will be a major factor.

Webb: Biden is nice, calm and reassuring. But he and the Democratic Congress are betting the farm that voters will embrace the return of big government and the unprecedented federal largesse pouring into the pockets of citizens, local governments, state governments and businesses.

But with the leftward cultural shift also comes higher taxes, more regulation, demoralized police departments, protests and riots, gargantuan debt, accusations of systemic racism, political correctness, cancel culture, gender confusion, increased crime, dysfunctional immigration, and calls to eliminate the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, federalize elections, pay reparations, and make Washington, D.C., a state.

With control of the House and Senate at stake, voters will have a clear choice in 2022.

Utah Gov. Cox shows compassion and moderation can be politically popular

66% of Utahns approve of the moderate Republican’s job performance

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

New Utah Gov. Spencer Cox is enjoying a political honeymoon with the Legislature and most Utahns. However, nationally and locally, the far right continues to critique his demeanor and some policies. We assess Cox’s popularity amid interesting voter dynamics.

Since his January inauguration, Cox’s popularity has increased. A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll reveals 66% of Utahns approve of his performance. Even 64% of Democrats and 62% of unaffiliated voters give the governor strong marks. In times of political turmoil, why is Cox so well liked?

Pignanelli: “In the 1860s, public vaccination was not simply a medical matter, it was a divisive political issue, with outcomes strongly influenced by competing partisan interests.” — Deborah Brunton

Inaugurated amid a pandemic and political turbulence, Cox was forced to play the political equivalent of relief pitcher — striking out batters while juggling additional balls and smiling, at the same time.

Cox understands in 2021 vaccination is the priority. His policies scored well despite noisy opposition from the no needle crowd. Indeed, 70% of voters applaud Cox’s governance of the pandemic.

Cox’s style of pitching (aka personality) is garnering the accolades. Utahns are a decent and compassionate people who sense the same virtues in the governor. But we are also practical and venerate efficiency in operations, especially government. Therefore, a stellar performance in vaccinating residents, which in turn is restoring the economy, is appreciated and admired.

Voters also perceived that Cox fared well in legislative relationships. They noted he vetoed bills without enduring the override session.

Further, Cox elevated his mantra to outline policy differences when needed, but not make personal attacks. This is especially appealing to Democrats and unaffiliated citizens grateful the governor will not disparage others just for their beliefs.

As with pitching, governing will always encounter unexpected challenges. But consistent style is what guarantees a place in the records.

Webb: Cox is, indeed, a compassionate and moderate conservative. But I believe he is a moderate conservative with a backbone, although he hasn’t had much occasion to publicly display that characteristic.

Utah has a great economy, vaccinations are going well and people are feeling good. It is typical for Utah governors in such enviable positions to enjoy high approval ratings. The fact that Cox is competent and likeable with an approachable, friendly demeanor will serve him well going forward.

Cox is sometimes criticized by national and local right-wing pundits, media outlets and special-interest organizations. Is this a long-term problem for Cox?

Pignanelli: Cox made the most important decision of his political career: He is who he is and will not change. This is an extremely valuable weapon. Some conservatives desperately want Cox to behave like them with inflammatory rhetoric and a narrow approach. His refusal to budge angers them.

Because his demeanor reflects the typical right of center Utahn, Cox ultimately prevails. Utah is a red state, but governmental responses on many issues are evolving. Cox is on the right side of history.

Webb: Personally, I don’t like political confrontation and harsh rhetoric, although I plead guilty to having done some of both. But I also don’t believe in saying, “Can’t we all just get along?” while getting run over by people who really would destroy the basic foundations of society and the country. Sometimes a fight is required.

I appreciate politicians like Cox and Sen. Mitt Romney, whose first inclination is to look for the good in opponents and want to work with them. But I’m also glad we have some fighters like Sen. Mike Lee, Reps. Chris Stewart and Burgess Owens, and legislative leadership who are willing to go to battle to preserve freedom and protect the family and society’s basic institutions.

There really are some bad people and bad policies out there that would damage our country.

Cox’s predecessor, Gov. Gary Herbert, also enjoyed high approval ratings. With regard to political ideology, Herbert said he was “conservative in principle, moderate in tone and inclusive in process.” That’s a good balance, and I think Cox would do well to demonstrate his conservative principles, even while maintaining his moderate tone.

In the same poll, only 40% of Utahns approve of President Joe Biden’s overall performance, but 50% approve of his handling of the pandemic. Any surprises?

Pignanelli: A majority of Utahns are unlikely to give a Democratic president the thumbs up. But some politicos expected a higher percentage regarding the pandemic. This may be more a function that the state is succeeding so well that the feds pale in comparison.

Webb: Biden inherited an easy win on the pandemic, although there have been bumps. But his low overall approval rating isn’t surprising. While Biden is personally more likeable and far less volatile than former President Donald Trump, he is presiding over the most left-wing agenda in my lifetime. He campaigned as a moderate and a unifier, but he is quietly tolerating radical policies.

If Biden can hold back the arch-liberal tide on such issues as D.C. statehood, eliminating the filibuster, higher taxes, court packing, defunding the police, open borders, federalizing elections and reparations, then perhaps he’ll win higher approval ratings in Utah.

Regence/United Way/Lyft Vaccine Access Program

At-risk Utahns who do not have transportation can now take Lyft to scheduled COVID-19 vaccination appointments. This effort to meet needs in underserved communities was made possible by Regence’s $250,000 donation to United Way Worldwide and United Way Salt Lake. The free service is now available in nine Utah counties: Box Elder, Davis, Salt Lake, Tooele, Uintah, Utah, Wasatch, Washington, and Weber. Eligible people can easily arrange round-trip Lyft rides to their scheduled appointments by calling 211 or visiting 211utah.org. There is no requirement to be a Regence member to use the program.

Here is a link to the press release in our newsroom: https://news.regence.com/releases/united-way-of-salt-lake-and-utah-211-launch-ride-united-vaccine-access-campaign

Church leaders urge civility in politics and defense of constitutional principles

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints’ General Conference contained lessons for American politics.

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Politics and religion have been major forces in our nation even before the birth of the republic. This reality is especially intriguing in Utah where one faith is so influential. In the April 2021 General Conference of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, talks by general authorities grabbed national and local headlines. We explore the impact of these important statements on political deliberations.

President Dallin H. Oaks of the First Presidency reminded conference listeners that the U.S. Constitution and its inspired principles are of “special importance” to church members. He said that no party or candidate can satisfy all personal preferences. Thus, members may at times need to consider “changing party support or candidate choices, even from election to election.” What is the significance of this speech?

I am an Italian Irish Catholic native Utahn who has watched some portion of every conference for more than three decades — oftentimes with my Latter-day Saint wife. This gentile benefitted from the wisdom provided.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints was born in a republic without the blemish of supporting the “divine right of kings” that plagues other religions. For many decades, adherents suffered tremendously through the despicable actions of fellow countrymen. Therefore, church leaders have unique moral authority to admonish Americans to respect our beloved Constitution. Because of recent events, President Oaks’ deliverance was timely and much needed. He reminded us there are higher objectives than petty score settling.

Partisan discord is corroding the fabric of our society. President Oaks prescribed a simple, but very proficient, remedy for all voters regardless of their affiliations and persuasions.

Utah is consistently heralded for a well-managed government, tremendous work ethic and deep compassion. These are all traits directly derived from religious heritage. So, it’s natural Latter-day Saint leaders are providing a path to resolve national and state divisiveness. This heathen is proud to participate in the solution.

Webb: Non-Republicans in Utah were quick to interpret President Oaks’ comments as a clear signal that it’s OK for church members to support candidates and parties other than the dominant Republican Party.

I think they are correct in that assumption, although such positioning by the church is nothing new. Church leaders have frequently encouraged members to be active in politics, but have made it clear that the church does not support particular candidates or political parties. Such choices are properly up to individual members of the church.

Of greater significance, in my view, President Oaks strongly encouraged church members and everyone else to “uphold and defend” the divinely inspired principles of the Constitution. That clearly means supporting candidates who share that commitment.

He explicitly encouraged support for “five divinely inspired principles” in the Constitution. I strongly urge everyone to read and reread his talk and review and think about how we can champion those five principles to protect our freedoms and the vitality and durability of our nation.

I was especially pleased to hear President Oaks proclaim as the second “inspired principle” of the Constitution “the division of delegated power between the nation and its subsidiary states.” As a strong defender of balanced federalism in our nation it was heartening to see this key principle elevated by President Oaks. I firmly believe that a restoration of the proper federal/state relationship could help solve many of the nation’s most difficult problems.

Elder Gary E. Stevenson articulated scientific and anecdotal examples of why kindness is necessary. He denounced bullying and said that prejudice and poor treatment of others because of their personal characteristics have no place in society or in the church. He reminded church members they have a responsibility to set a tone of “inclusion and civility” in a society that is shifting toward division in “politics, social class and other manmade distinctions.” Can this counsel improve political dialogue?

Pignanelli: I will never forget Elder Stevenson’s talk. His stories of the laboratory rabbits and neighborliness of Quincy, Illinois, were moving and reaffirmed unkind poisonous language is not justified.

For too long, commentators on cable television, talk radio and social media have vilified others simply for policy differences. Religious leaders must consistently denounce these tactics. Elder Stevenson offered a successful formula.

Webb: In politics, there are certainly issues, principles and candidates worth fighting for. There are also issues, principles and candidates that should be opposed and defeated. But it really can be done without personal attacks and vicious language.

Admittedly, it is hard to stay civil and respectful on hotly contested issues. I often fall short myself. But we would better solve problems if our exchanges were courteous, with even a bit of grace and understanding in the mix.

Could the statements by church leaders generate backlash among members, or produce a deeper commitment to their objectives?

Pignanelli: Demanding charitable behavior toward those with different religious or political beliefs always generates criticism from the narrow strident believers (just ask Pope Francis). Unfortunately, it’s happening in Utah. But the legacy of the church, and its members, commands respect nationwide. Frequent admonitions similar to those delivered Easter weekend can change American discourse.

Webb: The behavior of those on the extremes may never change. But the entreaties of good church leaders can absolutely motivate centrists of all political persuasions to do better.

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Is massive federal spending destroying the concept of federalism?

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

In national crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government rightly steps up and provides directives and massive financial support to state and local governments and directly to businesses and individuals. But this immense federal intervention comes at the risk of making states even more subservient to the federal government, both financially and with more federal regulation and mandates. This raises important questions.

When the pandemic crisis is over, and after the expenditure of trillions of federal dollars, some of it given to states and local governments, will the federal/state relationship have been forever altered?

Pignanelli: “Ambitious encroachments of the federal government on the authority of the State governments, would ... be signals of general alarm. ... But what degree of madness could ever drive the federal government to such an extremity.” — James Madison

We who overindulge high-calorie foods would never risk credibility to blame the restaurants for our lack of discipline (I have no willpower with Italian cuisine). Conversely, states’ rights activists suffer no compunction rebuking the federal government for overreach. There are no nationally elected officials in Washington, D.C. — all were chosen from the states or the electoral college. Most diminishment of federalism, and empowerment of the federal government, was through the consent of the states’ representatives. The national checking account is so big, and states’ so limited, that financial considerations compelled acquiescence.

Unarguably, for the benefit of all Americans some national powers needed absolute preeminence to enhance civil rights, air and water quality, commerce, etc. Further, the pandemic demonstrated again the federal government excels in selected actions and state governments are superior for others.

American federalism has always been a partisan issue — the GOP are the modern advocates. But the left-leaning have reason to be equally suspicious of overreaching nationalism on key issues: privacy, immigration, environment, etc.

Saying “No” (especially to a second helping of pasta) is a difficult but must be learned by the states to prevent “unhealthy growth”.

Webb: The Biden administration agenda is producing the greatest federal government domination and dependency in modern history.

The nation’s founders clearly intended states to be equal partners with the federal government in the governance of the nation. But the national government enjoys an immense advantage — the ability to print and borrow money. That means it can shower down trillions of dollars on states, local governments, businesses and individuals for whatever purposes it deems appropriate, with little or zero state input.

But the money inevitably comes with strings attached and the federal bureaucracy grows ever larger. The “free” money obviously becomes very popular among both public and private recipients and a grave danger of growing dependency exists.

I don’t discount the federal government’s critical role in times of crisis. It appropriately takes action to prevent suffering and calamity. And I don’t believe individuals or states should turn down the money. After all, it is their taxes (or obligation to eventually pay the debt), so they should receive their fair share.

I’m also not suggesting that reasonable federal debt is inappropriate. But the proper economic theory is that debt is accrued in times of crisis, to bolster a faltering economy, and then is reduced or paid off in good times.

However, the unfortunate pattern for many years has been that debt soars in both good times and bad, under administrations of both parties. Some very wise people believe it is now reaching a crisis point and it won’t take much for the house of cards to collapse.

The Biden administration and Congress are proposing further sweeping legislation that further encroaches on the prerogatives of states. These include federalizing election procedures (which are currently overseen by state legislatures), a $15 per hour minimum wage, gun control, free college, and even prohibiting states from cutting taxes if they have taken federal relief funds. Will such legislation help or hurt the country?

Pignanelli: Restricting state tax cuts? The Supreme Court should strike this nonsense down, but the mere suggestion propels dangerous thoughts. No surprise Congress is considering further oversight of elections. Many politicians laid the groundwork by condemning state certified results. Respect for states’ rights doesn’t end because of ballot results.

The brilliant founders’ construction will prevent either measure from a long life.

Webb: Congress and the federal government are vastly overreaching their authority, creating more division and anger with one-size-fits-all regulation. Wyoming and New York are very different. On issues like gun control and the minimum age, why not let Wyoming be Wyoming and New York be New York? Half of congressional dysfunction could be eliminated by modestly accepting the diversity of our country.

Can states do anything to hold back the increased federal domination?

Pignanelli: Federalism must be a bipartisan issue. Otherwise, it will continue to be subject to the inconsistent whims of elections. The proposed “Repeal” constitutional amendment (introduced by former Congressman Rob Bishop) would allow a majority of the states to overturn any federal law or regulation. Serious consideration of this measure would send the right signals.

Webb: The galloping trend toward massive power concentration at the federal level will continue unabated until state legislators wake up and use the constitutional authority vested in them to resist and apply structural reforms, making states competitive in the federal system.

Will Utah be able to handle such rapid growth? Local elections will be the key

Mayoral races across the state are already heating up.
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Pignanelli & Webb: “Winning the election is a good-news, bad-news kind of thing. OK, now you’re the mayor. The bad news is, now you’re the mayor.” — Clint Eastwood

Although Utah will not have any federal or state elections this year, there will be plenty of politics at the local level in mayoral and city council races. These can sometimes be rather sleepy contests but, often, local elections are heated and even nasty. Citizens really care about local, neighborhood issues. Some of them are highly emotional.

Many of the hottest local issues are centered on the challenges of rapid growth. Utah’s population is expected to grow by another 2 million people over the next three decades.

Massive new housing developments, high-density housing, affordable housing, lot sizes, infrastructure needs and costs, and a desire to maintain a rural or suburban flavor — “like it was when I grew up” — often spark local battles.

And change is also occurring in rural Utah, causing some discomfort and political ferment. With more people working from home and able to live anywhere, some parts of rural Utah are becoming more desirable, with an influx of people, new ideas, and different values and cultures.

Utah experienced a dramatic increase in voter turnout last year. Vote by mail will likely also boost voter participation in the municipal races. Candidates will have to campaign more broadly, to all citizens instead of just those with a history of active voting in low-key municipal elections.

Further, more mayoral campaigns will be utilizing sophisticated technology and research activities that were once the domain of partisan federal and state contests. Utahns can expect aggressive social media, polling and demographic targeting in some of these contests.

The statewide municipal filing deadline is June 7, with primaries to be held Aug. 10. Most cities (with the exception of a few of the largest ones) feature mayoral contests this year.

Here’s a sampling of some of the more interesting mayoral races:

Sandy: Four years ago, Kurt Bradburn shocked the Utah political world by defeating permanent fixture Tom Dolan in the mayoral race. Bradburn is not running for reelection, and at least two council members are considering the race (Marci Housman and Kristin Coleman-Nichols). Interesting gossip indicates that the City Council Executive Director Mike Applegarth may also toss his hat into the ring.

Orem: Mayor Richard Brunst is not seeking reelection. Rumor is former mayor Jim Evans will run in what is a usually competitive race.

St. George: Mayor Jon Pike resigned in January upon his appointment by Gov. Spencer Cox to serve as Utah Insurance Department commissioner. Michele Randall was appointed by the City Council to replace Pike and will be seeking a full term. Council members Jimmie Hughes and Gregg McArthur may also run. Politicos are watching this race with interest because the controversy over changing the name of Dixie State University could be a major issue.

Provo: Mayor Michelle Kaufusi collected statewide recognition as the running mate for Jon Huntsman Jr. in the 2020 gubernatorial primary contest. She is gearing up for reelection, but there are whispers of heated opposition.

West Valley City: Beloved former lawmaker and state budget officer Ron Bigelow is not running for reelection as mayor. This is likely to produce a number of ambitious mayoral candidates from the City Council and community organizations.

Cedar City: Maile Wilson captured national attention as a young lawyer elected to lead her hometown. She is running for a third term with likely opposition from well-known businessman Garth Green.

Murray: Mayor Blair Camp, a former fire chief, is a well-respected institution among residents. Should he not seek a second full term, the race for the open seat will be interesting as the community has witnessed major political shifts in city and legislative offices.

South Salt Lake: Mayor Cherie Wood has survived several close races and could face another strong challenge should she seek a fourth term.

Park City: Mayor Andy Beerman is popular, but plenty of controversies arise in this ski resort community, possibly prompting competition.

Heber City: Mayor Kelleen Potter has deftly increased economic opportunities in this once-sleepy hamlet. But she has garnered controversy for strong positions on LGBTQ issues and affordable housing. These issues may promote opposition.

Bluffdale: Apparently, Mayor Derk Timothy may not seek reelection. This is fostering interest from council members and local business owners.

Davis and Weber County cities: Many of the municipalities in these two counties have mayors with two or three terms of experience. Longevity sometimes produces increasing opposition and a desire for new approaches. This suggests the possibility of potential competitive races by challengers wishing to oust the incumbents. One exception is Roy, where popular Mayor Robert Dandoy may not seek reelection.

Meet the Republican challengers lining up to oppose Sen. Mike Lee

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

The November 2022 election is 20 months away. But for political observers (aka junkies and hacks) it’s never too soon to start conjecturing about candidates. U.S. Sen. Mike Lee is certainly running for reelection, which is spurring real and potential opponents. We begin the gossip and review the early intrigue.

Pignanelli & Webb: The following individuals (in alphabetical order) have already announced their candidacies, or have told others they are considering a run, or are hearing “whispering in their ears” about seeking the 2022 GOP Senate nomination.

Rebecca P. “Becky” Edwards is a well-liked former member of the Utah House of Representatives, representing south Davis County from 2009 to 2018. Edwards has said she is “all in” and is moving forward with her campaign.

Henry Eyring is a very smart young political newcomer who holds a doctorate in business administration and has been teaching at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

His name is familiar because he is the grandson of President Henry Eyring of the First Presidency of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Jeff Flake is former member of the U.S. Senate representing Arizona. He (yes, that Jeff Flake) is spending a great deal of time in Utah. Numerous sources are telling us that he is receiving pressure to run for the seat.

Dan Hemmert is a successful businessman and former effective state senator who now serves as director of economic development for Gov. Spencer Cox. He has served in his current job only a short time, but has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate by numerous insiders.

Gary Herbert was, of course, an immensely popular governor who is likely enjoying retirement and his grandkids, but is being mentioned by his friends as perhaps still having some political fire in the belly.

Ally Isom is a well-respected communications, public policy and campaign expert, having worked as deputy chief of staff and spokesperson for Gov. Herbert. She held key positions for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and is currently chief strategy officer for EVOQ, a nanotech company.

Erin Rider is a hard-driving local attorney and MBA with degrees from Georgetown University. She specializes in corporate and securities law and has a commitment to “principled conservatism.” She appears to be moving forward with a campaign.

Brendan Wright is a Lehi resident who has announced his candidacy. He has advanced degrees and has worked at Motorola, ExxonMobil, Savage Resources, and currently works as an area planning manager for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Thomas Wright runs a successful real estate business and was the very effective chairman of the Salt Lake County and Utah state Republican parties. He was a candidate for governor in 2020 and arguably had the best and funniest TV ads — but the pandemic intervened to take the fun out of politics.

Mike Lee helped take out incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett in the state convention in 2010, and then defeated another solid Republican in the GOP primary. Is he himself vulnerable in 2022?

Pignanelli: Five years ago, high-profile Republicans were grumbling about Utah’s junior senator’s participation in the government shutdown. Serious threats percolated against his first reelection. Yet, Lee worked tirelessly to avoid the mistakes of his predecessor. Within six months he was unopposed in the convention and had secured enough petition signatures that his nomination was unanimously supported.

The new detractors face challenges. The incumbent is quietly raising money to finance the necessary media and grassroots operations. Furthermore, Lee enjoys an unmovable base inside the Republican Party.

As before, some Republicans are troubled with Lee’s style and rhetoric. But claims that Lee is too conservative or over strident will not resonate with the GOP faithful. His efforts and speeches pushing back against a Democrat controlled federal government will be embraced.

Lee is an outspoken, energetic, controversial persona who can articulate constitutional principles with amazing clarity. Consequently, he attracts disgruntlement and passionate support. Objecting to Lee’s approach is easy but constructing a campaign to oust him is enormously difficult.

Webb: Lee obviously causes discomfort within the moderate wing of the GOP, especially because of his support for former President Trump (although he differed with Trump on some issues). It is significant that a number of potential opponents are lining up this early in the election cycle.

But no one is going to sneak up on Lee like he did on Bennett 11 years ago. And Lee is likely saying, “Come on in. The more the merrier.” A large field of moderate candidates will split the centrist vote in a multi-candidate primary and allow Lee to waltz to victory with his strong conservative base.

What external forces could impact Utah’s primary and general elections in 2022?

Pignanelli: As in 2010, perceived overreach by a Democrat administration and Congress will be influential. The post-pandemic economy, China and Iran could be additional factors determining decisions by Utah’s electorate.

Webb: Trump is always a wild card. He will be a factor in 2022 and will likely support Lee — which will cut both ways but will be a net positive in Utah. If the Biden administration continues its leftward lurch and pushes bigger government, more regulation and higher taxes, Utah voters may want to send a conservative to go to battle in Washington, not someone who wants to get along with everyone.