Pignanelli and Webb: The Kavanaugh saga's big impact on everyone

The controversy over the confirmation of now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh is seeping into the Nov. 6 midterm elections and even into the realms of how Americans and Utahns interact on many levels. We explore the consequences.

Are the raw and visceral events surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation just another media blip, or has our national culture been permanently affected?

Pignanelli: “This moment is not going to pass. This moment is with us for a while.”— Matthew Dowd

When I was a skinny 16-year-old, I was molested by a male predator twice my age and size. Just seconds from a brutal rape, I wrestled away and ran. Ashamed, terrified and crippled with guilt, this son of a devout Catholic family could not reveal the trauma to my loving parents, priest or police. My experience does not approximate the suffering of millions of American women, but I am deeply empathetic to victims who did not report sexual assaults — including Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.

As a lawyer and public official, I swore an oath to uphold the federal and state constitutions, including the principles underlying them. In courtrooms and the Capitol, I represented clients and colleagues accused of illegal or unethical conduct. In each instance, I reaffirmed a fundamental precept in America: The law applies to everyone equally. The accused are entitled to confront their accuser and be judged by the evidence available.

These life experiences illustrate how most Utahns struggle with this dilemma. They sympathize with and respect the victim. But those alleged of wrongdoing cannot be convicted in a court of law or arena of public opinion without adequate evidence.

Credible witnesses with conflicting stories are frequent scenarios in America. Tarana Burke, founder of the #MeToo movement, offers resolution with this recommendation: “When we say, ‘Believe survivors,’ it's … people do not often lie about their pain and the trauma of sexual violence … but do not believe them without investigation or interrogation. This is not, ‘Believe people, blanket and don't investigate.’” Well stated.

Webb: This saga has elicited raw feelings on all sides. The believable and heartfelt testimony of Ford was nearly overwhelmed by protesters screaming in the faces of senators. I believe, on balance, the Democrats and their militant activist base overplayed their hand, angering both traditional Republicans and Trump Republicans. They managed to unite and energize a fractured Republican Party.

For example, my wife, Jan, is a moderate Republican. Like many women, she has no use for President Donald Trump. She greatly dislikes his tone and demeanor, his pomposity, his sarcasm, his name-calling, his treatment of women and so forth.But, by the time the Kavanaugh battle was over, Jan — the moderate — was thoroughly disgusted with the way the Democrats and the throngs of protesters behaved. She felt the Democrats were disingenuous, unfair and highly political and were trying to destroy a good man.

Way back in 1968, when CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite suggested that America cease fighting the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson said, “If I’ve lost Cronkite, I’ve lost middle America.”

If the Democrats have lost a significant number of moderate women, they’ve also lost middle America.

Both Republicans and Democrats are expressing outrage to motivate voters in the upcoming elections. Will the emotions remain strong enough through Election Day and beyond to impact the races?

Pignanelli: Because this is more than an ideological variance and is highly personal to voters, passion will remain high long past Election Day.

Webb: An election that was mostly a referendum on Trump is now also a referendum on Democratic extremism and moblike behavior. Trump-hating Democrats were already eager to vote. Now Republicans are just as galvanized. It could hurt Democrats in close races like the Mia Love/Ben McAdams 4th Congressional District battle.

McAdams is a very nice and capable person. He’s a political moderate. He says he won’t support Nancy Pelosi as House speaker.

But the reality is that a vote for McAdams is a vote for the Democratic mob to take over the House. The hysterical Democratic base that has been harassing Republican leaders in restaurants and chasing them down hallways will be in charge. The people who want to impeach Kavanaugh, impeach Trump and eliminate Immigration and Customs Enforcement will control the House.

What is the long-term impact on Utah's politics, society and culture?

Pignanelli: This is dividing families, friends and former political allies. But I am the internal optimist and believe the net result of this controversy is beneficial to our state. Those unfairly traumatized or injured will now be emboldened to come forward, knowing there is a support structure in place. But allegations of criminal or bad behavior — including those made via social media — must now be supported by reasonable evidence or be dismissed.

Webb: This furor will subside. But the reality is that Republicans have won an enormous victory. With Trump’s two recent appointments, the Supreme Court is now majority conservative. Liberals will no longer be able to use the court to move the country to the left. They won’t be able to use the courts to enact policies they can’t get through the legislative branch. Long term, that will be very good for the country.

Pignanelli and Webb: Utah’s hottest election battle — medical marijuana

Since the news cycle of national politics is now shorter than the lifespan of a fruit fly, we will avoid — for this week — the latest Washington firestorms. However, we also have hot issues in Utah, particularly the most interesting election contest this year — Proposition 2, the medical marijuana initiative.

With the election getting close, could there be a last-minute compromise? Will the proponents and opponents of Prop 2 mount a final blitz to pass or defeat this initiative?

Pignanelli: "Make the most you can of the Indian Hemp seed and sow it everywhere." — George Washington

A huge billboard on 600 South advertises a passage from the Doctrine and Covenants (“All Wholesome Herbs God Hath Ordained for the … use of Man”) in support of Prop 2. The sheer existence of this signage demonstrates a battle not between cultures — but within one.

An almost daily imbiber of alcohol, I support The Church of Jesus Christ Latter-day Saints’ position to regulate but not prohibit its consumption. Booze is a mind-altering product requiring government control of its distribution. Most Utahns expect and rely upon guidance from the state’s largest religious institution in constructing policies for liquor, gambling and narcotics. I vigorously defend their right to provide such counsel. Similar emotions are driving compromise discussions between Prop 2 combatants.

If negotiations falter and Prop 2 is defeated, opponents must assist in resolving outstanding issues of therapeutic marijuana use. The church, medical associations and law enforcement have a responsibility to provide a robust regulatory alternative that remedies concerns of recreational use with compassion and common sense.

We all hope for a billboard praising the "Utah Way" for solving this dilemma.

Webb: Good-faith discussions are occurring to find a compromise that both sides of Prop 2 can live with. However, even if the protagonists get close to an agreement, both will likely keep fighting to pass or defeat the proposal. Opponents bargain for changes from a dramatically better position if voters reject Prop 2. And supporters will argue they have the will of the people on their side if the initiative passes.

Personally, I believe Prop 2 is deeply flawed and should be rejected because it lacks basic controls that we impose on other medications that can be abused. Law enforcement and the medical community oppose it because they know it threatens the well-being of our young people and will result in more impaired driving and health problems.

I don’t doubt that components of the marijuana plant have medicinal purposes for certain medical problems. Thus, cannabis medicine ought to be produced, regulated and dispensed like other prescription medications.

What is the political and societal fallout from the passage or defeat of this initiative?

Pignanelli: Because of their aggressive opposition, Prop 2 adversaries have "ownership" in the issue beyond the election. Should the initiative succeed, questions will arise as to the relationship between leaders and members of these religious, medical and law enforcement organizations. Political and demographic analysts will study this for years.

Failure of Prop 2 is a short-term victory for opponents because unless additional legislation expanding the use of marijuana for medical purposes is implemented, over the long term resentment will fester. The church and others must participate in developing a legal framework that accomplishes the major goals of both sides.

Webb: The involvement of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in such a political, moral and societal issue is not unprecedented, but is unusual. It clearly reflects the deep concern top church leaders have about this matter. The church doesn’t get involved in these issues on a whim.

As with many difficult issues, the extremes on both sides will fight any compromise. Some of the hardcore opponents don’t realize that society has turned a corner on this matter and medical marijuana is coming whether they like it or not. They’re not going to be able to ban all uses of marijuana, even in Utah. The best course is to support true medical marijuana, with appropriate regulation and controls.

Is the Legislature likely to amend the initiative should it pass? Will they enact something if it does not pass?

Pignanelli: Legislators are reluctant to tinker with public will expressed by ballot. But this dispute is different. Prop 2 contains some provisions that are problematic. Utahns will support officials who cure public safety concerns while maintaining the medicinal spirit of the initiative. Conversely, lawmakers will not touch the matter if the initiative fails, unless opponents in good faith request action.

Webb: Whether Prop 2 passes or not, the Legislature is almost certain to act. The old conventional wisdom that if voters approve it you don’t mess with it doesn’t apply here. That will especially be true if it wins by a small margin. And if the opposing sides can come up with anything close to an agreement, that will grease a legislative solution.

Meanwhile, the federal government ought to get off its collective rear end and allow proper development and clinical testing of cannabis-derived medicines.

Pignanelli and Webb: Some legislative and county races worth watching

Pignanelli & Webb: As the election nears, national contests are grabbing most of the media attention as control of Congress hangs in the balance. However, valiant political warriors are battling each other in county and legislative races as well. Some of these contests include an additional candidate from the United Utah Party, providing more intrigue.

These defenders of democracy are engaged in retail politics and are to be commended for their willingness to engage. We highlight some key races.

The most-watched. In 2016, well-liked physician Democrat Suzanne Harrison lost her bid to replace well-known Rep. LaVar Christensen by only five votes in Sandy/Draper District 32. Many observers believed she could win the seat in a nonpresidential election year and she announced accordingly. But Christensen filed for the Senate. Instead, Harrison faces respected self-made Republican businessman Brad Bonham, who is offering a spirited challenge. Further, this race is complicated by a United Utah candidate, Bjorn Jones. This fight features the best that each party has to offer, and the results will be fascinating.

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sue Duckworth, and her husband (who retired for health reasons), deflected stiff Republican challenges over several election cycles. Republican Barbara Stallone is providing another tough fight for this Magna/West Valley district.

District 44, mostly in Murray, flipped back and forth over the last several decades. Incumbent Republican Bruce Cutler has prevailed in two elections by slim margins. Democrat Andrew Stoddard is hoping for an upset this time.

Ogden’s District 9 — once a Democratic stronghold — was captured by now-retiring Republican Jeremy Peterson. Calvin Musselman is hoping to hold the seat for the GOP but faces tough competition from Democrat Kathie Darby.

_Just plain interesting_. Known as the "hardest-working person in Utah politics," Democrat Patrice Arent never, ever takes anything for granted and swamps all opposition in this Millcreek District. Yet, 2018 offers a new element for her. Republican Todd Zenger is a respected lawyer and current member of the Granite School District Board of Education. This is truly a battle of brains.

The political world was shocked by the retirement of House Speaker Greg Hughes from his Draper District 51. He recruited Republican Draper City Councilman Jeff Stenquist. Unopposed by a Democrat, Stenquist faces fellow council member Michele Weeksunder the United Utah Party. Weeks once ran as a Democrat for the Senate and was nearly elected mayor of Draper last year. "Interesting" is an understatement for this contest.

Democrat Elizabeth Weight knocked off popular Republican Sophia DiCaro in the West Valley District 31 by a slim margin. Her challenges from Republican Fred Johnson and United Utah's Brian Fabbi are capturing attention.

Democrats always hope Park City can boost their strength (it hasn't yet). But they're putting their hopes on challenger Meaghan Miller against incumbent Republican Tim Quinn — who is popular in this Summit/Wasatch County District.

In 2016, Karen Kwan was able to recapture this Taylorsville/Murray District for the Democrats. Republican David Young is pushing for reversal.

Will these districts swing? Although they've been held by the GOP for a number of cycles, many still remember when Democrats won races in certain districts. So, can Republican Mike Winder hold West Valley District 30 against Democrat Robert Burch? Republican incumbent Craig Hall will face Democrat Ira Hatch (also in West Valley). Other such “swing” contests include District 38 (Kearns), where longtime incumbent Eric Hutchins faces Democrat Edgar Harwood, and Sandy District 49, featuring incumbent Republican Robert Spendlove, Democrat Anthony Sudweeks and United Utah's Mark Russell.

Universally loved Republican Brian Shiozawa retired early and the equally nice fellow physician Brian Zehnder was appointed in Senate District 8. He is facing a tough fight from Democrat Kathleen Riebe and United Utah's John Jackson.

_Republicans pitch “A place at the table” argument_. Liberal favorite Rebecca Chavez Houck announced her retirement from the Avenues/Capitol Hill District 24 last year, provoking a spirited four-way Democratic primary in June. The victor, Jen Dailey-Provost, is clearly the favorite to win in this left-wing area, but Republican Scott Rosenbush is working hard, promoting himself as a “New Jersey-type Republican” brimming with moderation.

James Dabakis also announced his retirement from Salt Lake City Senate District 2, and City Councilman Derek Kitchen won a tough primary and is also predicted to prevail. Chase Winder (yep, of the Winder clan) is also aggressively pushing against a blue wall.

The Millcreek/Holladay Senate District 4 awarded Democrat Jani Iwamoto a strong margin four years ago, but Republican newcomer Alan Monsen is doing his best to counter the popular incumbent.

Will the GOP County Council hold? Democrat Jim Bradley is a fixture in Salt Lake County politics, serving both as a commissioner and an at-large council member. Respected as ethical and decent, he is facing a tough challenge from former legislator Sophia DiCaro, who enjoys a reputation for hard work and integrity. The outcome of this race will possibly signify a trend for countywide elections in 2020.

Recently deceased beloved Democrat Sam Granato was unopposed in his County Council race in 2016. His wife, Ann — chosen as his replacement — is running to fill his term. Michelle Quist is a respected GOP activist, known for her journalistic endeavors on the web and with the Salt Lake Tribune. Both face United Utah's Robert Cundick.

Correction: A previous version mislabeled one of Utah's political parties. It is the United Utah Party, not the Utah United Party.

Pignanelli and Webb: Marijuana, Kavanaugh & the Reagan Roundtable – Oh my!

As the 2018 election gets closer, everything in the political world becomes more intense. We address some of the issues becoming more contentious as the stakes get higher.

After strong church opposition and a pledge by Gov. Gary Herbertto enact a more suitable law, support for the medical marijuana ballot proposal is declining a little. Will it still pass?

Pignanelli: “The mere fact of its being on the ballot has elevated and legitimized public discourse about marijuana and marijuana policy in ways I could not have imagined.” — George Soros

One of the few talents I possess is the ability to over-dramatize anything, no matter how trivial or mundane. But flamboyant animation (another skill I frequently flaunt) is needed when describing how the popular backing of the medical marijuana initiative reflects changing demographics, politics and societal norms in the state. Regardless of how one stands on the issue, these elements cannot be dismissed.

Proposition 2 garnered large contributions from entities from out of state, but also collected hundreds of small donations from residents along the Wasatch Front. The initiative was originally supported by 76 percent of polled Utahns. The opposition (religious institutions, government officials, law enforcement and medical organizations) then launched a full-scale effort, dropping the number to 64 percent in a most recent survey. Utahns have affection and respect for these entities, but compassion for friends, co-workers, neighbors and family members is overwhelming. Social media bombards them with real life experiences. Further, the information flood in the internet continually creates opportunities for voters to learn, analyze and judge.

Opponents have yet to develop an effective message with compelling emotion (waving arms while speaking could help). So, Prop 2 likely passes.

Webb: Most Utahns strongly believe, as do I, that legitimate patients should have access to legitimate medicine derived from the marijuana plant. Opponents of Prop. 2 have the burden to convince voters that while Prop. 2 is a slippery slope to recreational marijuana, they support, and will provide access to, legitimate cannabis medicine. If they can make that case, perhaps the initiative can be defeated.

Either way, the Legislature is going to act on this issue and eliminate the “recreational” aspects of the initiative, while dealing with federal law and creating the opportunity for legitimate medical marijuana.

The confirmation hearings of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh have created partisan sparks. Utah’s two senators are in the middle of it. Will Kavanaugh become a Supreme Court justice?

Pignanelli: After watching hours of confirmation hearings (yep, I'm a nerd), several observations are worth mentioning. Kavanaugh is a machine who sticks to his talking points, providing few holes for Democrat senators to punch through. Continuing legal education credit should be provided to us who slept through constitutional law and are now caught up, thanks to these televised debates. Hulu program "The Handmaiden’s Tale” is fostering costume ideas for protesters, matching references to HBO's "Game of Thrones." Amidst this confusion and circus, Kavanagh is confirmed.

Webb I watched some of the confirmation hearings and I’ve decided I have a man-crush on Brett Kavanaugh. The guy is brilliant. Had I been there, I would have stood and cheered (and probably been thrown out by the Capitol police) at his response to Sen. Ted Cruz’s question about federalism. It was downright inspiring. Kavanaugh really understands the role of states in the federal system. He’s a veritable legal and constitutional walking encyclopedia, continually referring to the Federalist Papers and his tattered pocket copy of the Constitution.

Kavanaugh handled the Democratic grandstanding with graceful aplomb. They couldn’t touch him. I couldn’t have been prouder of a court nominee. He will be easily confirmed and will be a terrific Supreme Court justice.

Mainstream Republicans have organized the Reagan Roundtable to replace the Elephant Club. Money raised will not go to the Republican Party. Is this another blow to the party?

Pignanelli: The charter founders of this "Reagan Roundtable" are universally respected and admired. Thus, their willingness to openly establish an alternative to the Utah GOP illustrates the death grip the small strident “Gang of 51” has on the entire party and how they are doomed. The extremists do not enjoy broad support or resources and will eventually collapse.

Webb: One of the organizers of the Reagan Roundtable, Lew Cramer, has noted that Ronald Reagan was a strong proponent of the "Big Tent" — he proclaimed that the GOP was big enough to embrace a wide variety of political viewpoints and was open to all that believe in free markets, individual liberty and limited government. The Reagan Roundtable is designed to help elect such broad-based, mainstream conservative candidates.

The far-right GOP activists who control the party’s Central Committee reject Reagan’s Big Tent philosophy, so it makes no sense for traditional GOP donors to support them.

Gov. Herbert is still valiantly trying to bring the party factions together, and is trying to raise money so the party can at least keep the lights on. I wish him luck.

2018 Campaign Management Class

Foxley & Pignanelli is again honored to teach a prestigious Campaign Management class this semester through the renown Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. For over 10 years we have been privileged to provide leading local and national political minds to present to our class. This year promises even greater opportunities to learn from the professionals. We are flying in at least five (and counting) national experts representing companies from Google to the top data and analytic firms in the country to discuss a variety of hot political and campaign topics including the latest data/ analytical trends, successful strategy concepts, and useful communication techniques.  

Below is the tentative schedule we have arranged for the semester. If you are interested in attending any of theses lectures please email our office at FoxPig@fputah.com for more information. 

September 4th 3-4 PM Richard Jaussi, Political Consulting

September 11th 2-3 PM Sasha Clark, The Dicio Group

3-4 PM James Rich, Reveal Why Analytics*

September 18th 2-3 PM Justin Lee, Utah Lieutenant Governor's office

September 25th  3-4 PM Chase Clyde, Utah Education Association

October 2nd 2- 3 PM Matt Canham, Salt Lake Tribune

3-4 PM David Wilson, Gather

October 16th* 2-4 PM David Seawright, Deep Root Analytics

October 23rd 4-5PM Lisa Watts Baskin, Petitions

October 30th  2-5 PM Y2 Analytics, Focus Groups

November 13th 3-4 PM Paige Marriot, Fundraising

November 27th* 2-4 PM Steve Johnston, FlexPoint Media

2-4 PM Curt Black, Google

December 4th 2-5 PM Arena Communications

December 11th* 2-4 PM Steve Grand, Wilson*Grand Communications

*National guest speaker

Pignanelli and Webb: A few honest political statements as campaigns gear up

Pignanelli & Webb: Labor Day is the unofficial start of the campaign season. Because of the tumultuous events in the nation's capital and across the country, we detect a desire for greater honesty in politics. Therefore, as a public service we hereby provide truthful slogans and statements for candidates, current officials and other leaders to use in their campaigns, websites, speeches and twitter posts. We are confident they will find our suggestions helpful.

Former Congressman Jason Chaffetz: "My book, ‘The Deep State,’ comes out Sept. 18. It is the best preparation possible for when I become governor and have to deal with the Division of Motor Vehicles."

Utah Republican Party: “Ours is the Big Tent party — with members inside stabbing each other.”

Utah Democratic Party: "Our party is mostly hardcore leftists — but we’re giving Ben McAdams a pass."

Democratic candidates in Republican strongholds: "No donkeys. No Trump bashing. Doing everything I can to hide the fact I’m a Democrat."

Republican candidates in Democratic strongholds: "If elected I can provide a seat at the legislative table for this liberal district. I have no idea what that means, but I was told to say it."

Sen. Mike Lee: "Just keeping an eye on some of those aged denizens of the U.S. Supreme Court. Third time might be the charm."

Sen. Orrin Hatch: “Let’s get these midterms over with so we can focus on the next big thing — my retirement and fundraising for my $40 million Hatch Center library and think tank.”

U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Jenny Wilson: “Please protect the environment. Don’t throw away my lawn signs. Recycle them and use biodegradable ink to write ‘County Mayor in 2020.’”

U.S. Senate GOP candidate Mitt Romney: “There is so much to love about this state. It’s easier to spell than Massachusetts. Fry sauce ranks with clam chowder. Everyone is so nice, especially to my wife. She could run for governor. Oops, that would be awkward. She’d have to run against Josh.”

Supporters of the marijuana initiative: "Doctors, cops, religious organizations and most politicians are opposed. But this is your chance to be cool and rebel against the establishment — plus you can move to the country and have your own marijuana grow.”

Opponents of marijuana initiative: “Sure, our campaign was dysfunctional for many months. But now we’re organized and have a message to counter those heart-wrenching stories of sick people being helped by marijuana — just wait and we’ll fix it.”

Supporters of Better Boundaries: "The redistricting commission is just advisory, and the process is extremely complex, and it may not have any real impact — but you'll feel really good voting for this.”

Legislative opponents of Better Boundaries: “We were elected by the people, so we should draw election district boundaries. And we don’t need to gerrymander because Utah is overwhelmingly Republican, anyway. We just protect incumbents of both parties."

Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox: "Just trying to demonstrate the Twittersphere is not entirely dominated by maladjusted presidents and Elon Musk."

Utah football: “Urban who?”

BYU football: “We’ll always have 1984."

University of Utah faculty: "We are strong defenders of the First Amendment. Are there any more amendments after that?"

Attorney Gen. Sean Reyes:” I am bored with chasing bad guys. Time to trade up to governor. Spencer Cox can tweet. But I can rap.”

Congressman Chris Stewart: "Navigating between the Trump base and the rest of my constituents takes some artful flying. Good thing I was an Air Force pilot."

Democratic 2nd Congressional District candidate Shireen Ghorbani: "I have the coolest name of anyone on the ballot, and it has nothing to do with yogurt.”

Salt Lake County Mayor and 4th Congressional District candidate Ben McAdams: "Please enjoy my wonderful advertisement highlighting my beautiful wife and fantastic children. It will give you such a warm glow you’ll forget about Nancy Pelosi and my party affiliation."

Congresswoman Mia Love: "I can outrun, outlift and outbox anyone on the ballot."

Congressman Rob Bishop: “Vote for me. Or don't. Whatever."

Democratic challenger Lee Castillo in the 1st Congressional District: "My campaign website (www.utahisforeverybody.com) has more diversity than the entire congressional district."

Utah Republican Central Committee. “We’ll keep playing with matches. Even if the house burns down.”

Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce CEO Derek Miller: “Perhaps bluster can produce decent trade agreements after all.”

Congressman John Curtis: “At least when I was mayor of Provo City we got things done. Can’t I just go build a bike trail or something?”

Retiring House Speaker Greg Hughes: "If you thought I was intense and driven before, just wait until these legislative shackles are off. I’m going to be the Energizer Bunny."

Gov. Gary Herbert: "You know, being governor is kinda fun, and serving a mission might be boring. 2020 could be tempting.”

Pignanelli & Webb: “We’re glad most Utah politicos have a sense of humor — and that they provide plenty of fodder for this column.

Pignanelli and Webb: Will ‘blue wave’ roll over Utah?

Summer temperatures are cooling a bit as we approach the end of August. But an eastern heat wave is flowing out of Washington, D.C., warming political debates as far away as Utah. We keep our air conditioners on high as we explore the ramifications.

For months, political pundits have dissected whether the much-heralded "blue wave" will sweep across the nation. Now, courtroom revelations about President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager and personal attorney have Washington in a tizzy. Debates are swirling on the impact of these revelations on congressional elections and the future of the president. So, will there be a blue wave in Utah?

Pignanelli: "Many of us were burned in the 2016 elections by prediction models, so I will not predict in 2018 who wins a kite-flying contest in the midst of a hurricane." — Matthew Dowd, ABC News

A tsunami is generated by a massive event, an earthquake or meteorite impact. The same holds true in politics. (Political hacks like me love to over-dramatize boring matters with outlandish descriptions.)

Whether the recent developments, adding to the emotional reactions Trump fostered for 18 months, generate a “wave” of change remains unanswered because traditional electioneering is upended. But history can provide limited guidance to candidates and parties. A strong economy and overreaching opposition distill the effect of presidential scandals voters find abhorrent but irrelevant (1998). Yet economics cannot overcome congressional scandals easily understood combined with a questionable presidential military strategy (2006). Enthused, determined voters expressing disgust with the party in power can drive change (2010).

Most voters made up their mind about Trump. So how the parties craft responses to the controversies and take credit for — or question — a booming economy will determine whether this is a bump or a colossal avalanche (I cannot help myself).

Webb: Midterm elections are, to some degree, a referendum on the incumbent president and the party in power. Voters in Utah’s 4th Congressional District who want to punish Trump may vote for Democrat Ben McAdams over incumbent Congresswoman Mia Love.

But balanced against the Trump factor is the Pelosi factor. A lot of Republicans and independents don’t particularly like Trump, but they really, really don’t want to give the House of Representatives to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats. They understand that a vote for McAdams is a vote for a Democratic takeover.

Meanwhile, Washington reporters, pundits and Democrats are beating their breasts and exclaiming: “We got Trump! Indict! Impeach!” But the average voter is wondering what’s new. They’re weighing what they already know about Trump against what he has accomplished in 18 months.

They already know Trump is a philanderer, that he paid off mistresses, that he stretches the truth, that he has a big mouth, that he is erratic and egotistical, and so forth.

But they’re comparing all that against a terrific economy, low unemployment, tax cuts, reduced regulation, energy independence, more muscular foreign policy, great judicial appointments, military buildup, tougher stance on terrorism — and possible downsides of trade, immigration and the national debt.

If predicting the demise of Trump was a fatal disease for Washington pundits and politicos, only Trump would still be alive.

A while ago, hundreds of newspapers across the country coordinated editorial attacks against Trump in response to his “fake news” and “enemy of the people” charges against the news media. Will this impact Utah politics?

Pignanelli: Trump is obsessed with daily disparagements of the media, which are consumed by covering his insults and perceived slights against the First Amendment. This battle is now ubiquitous background noise and ignored by Americans.

The more relevant dynamic is Utahns are increasingly getting their news not from television or newspapers, but from native digital sources. So any controversies about newspapers and television do not resonate. Further, successful campaigns continue to move from traditional forms of publicity to sophisticated social media venues. The rock fight between the president and the press has a limited audience.

Webb: Not many normal people pay attention to newspaper editorials (or to columnists like us!). The news media and the political class operate in an echo chamber, talking (and sometimes yelling) at each other while average voters go about their lives. The prevailing opinion among Trump supporters is that the mainstream media hate him anyway, so widespread editorial collusion has no further impact.

What should Utahns expect as Labor Day, the unofficial start of the campaign season, draws closer?

Pignanelli: Larger campaigns are conducting focus groups and polling to ensure advertisement bombardments resonate with voters. Smaller efforts are readying door knockers and mailers in anticipation of September blitzes. Digital ads will soon appear. Also, all such activities will be replicated by supporters of the statewide initiatives. Hopefully, the upcoming three-day holiday will offer some reprieve.

Webb: Preseason training camp is nearly over and it’s time to get serious about the 2018 elections. Candidates and ballot initiatives are rolling out TV spots to define themselves. With early voting beginning in less than two months, there’s no time to lose.

Pignanelli & Webb: The political inferno of wildfires, and other issues

It's hard to escape the sultry weather. It’s also hard to escape a few other ongoing issues. So instead of ignoring them we tackle them head-on.

Between heat and smoke, we've suffered through one of the ugliest summers in remembrance. Do policymakers share any blame for the raging wildfires? Can anything be done?

Pignanelli: “To paraphrase Woody Guthrie, if this land is our land, then aren’t these fires all our fires, from sea to shining sea?”— Wildfire Magazine

I grew up in a strict household while attending Catholic school taught by very tough nuns, where misconduct was always punished with various physical methods. Thus, I learned creative and clever methods to shift blame for my missteps on entirely innocent individuals and entities (Unsuspecting fellow students, obnoxious siblings, poor animals, acts of God, etc.) Nothing was safe.

So I roll my eyes at these amateurs across the political spectrum hurling ridiculous unconvincing accusations at each other. They blemish the art form at which I excelled. Especially because everyone and no one is to blame for wildfires.

Humans are behaving as they have for thousands of years, pursuing productive activity. For the last century this means driving gas-powered vehicles, using electricity and consuming protein — all which contribute to global warming. Further, housing has encroached on forests. To assign such conduct as wrongful, or in the alternative pretend it was harmless, is silly and fruitless. Our species needs natural resources to survive and flourish, and major readjustments to garner such through sounder ecological means is needed — but without guilt trips.

If solutions are not developed, and finger-pointing continues, I know some Sisters who can administer discipline. No one wants that.

Webb: Liberal politicians quickly point to climate change as responsible for extreme weather and horrendous wildfires. I’m not smart enough to know if that’s true or not. But one thing is clear: If we wait to solve climate change before taking action on fire prevention and forest management, we’ll all be burned up.

The Economist, a respected international magazine, recently surveyed global progress on climate change and concluded: “Mankind … is losing the war.” The U.S. is making reasonable progress, but energy consumption in emerging countries that want to enjoy American-style living standards is exploding — and coal use is rising. Some 80 percent of India’s electricity is produced by coal, and two-thirds in China. Countries worldwide are producing and using more dirty energy. The result is that reversing climate change via lower carbon emissions is decades away.

So, yes, let’s work on climate change. But we can’t wait 30 years for the climate to cool. It’s crucial to take immediate steps to prevent catastrophic fires. That means controlled burns, aggressive thinning of forests and dead timber removal. Much more must be invested in rapid fire response, more firefighters, more planes and helicopters, better fire detection.

All of that is going to be expensive. But it’s not much considering the billions of dollars burned up in property loss, horrendous air pollution and lost productivity.

Operation Rio Grande (ORG), which has been executed at great cost and effort, is observing its one-year anniversary. What progress has been made and has it been worth the expense?

Pignanelli: Rio Grande is expensive, but the results — on so many levels — are valuable. Because the Legislature intervened and demanded returns for state dollars allocated, Speaker Greg Hughes peeled scabs to reveal reality. This prompted him to publicly refuse to accept the status quo. Thus, criminal elements were identified, along with the root cause of their addict customers. This has changed the trajectory to save lives and revitalize the area.

Webb: ORG had a good first year, with much more to do. We’ll never completely eradicate homelessness because it is usually a symptom of deeper problems — mental illness, addiction, family dysfunction, crime and financial calamity. What I like about ORG is that Utah leaders have approached the challenges with eyes wide open, understanding the difficulty of changing human behavior and mixing compassion with tough love. There’s no question that crime has decreased.

Congressman Rob Bishop is disgusted because the House passes a lot of legislation, only to see it die in the Senate. Is it time to eliminate the Senate filibuster rule that effectively requires a supermajority to get laws passed?

Pignanelli: There is no constitutional foundation to this silly nuisance. Aaron Burr suggested the Senate should have different rules to end debates. But the filibuster was not formally adopted until 1917. While some claim it protects smaller states, this vexation has hindered civil rights, balanced budgets, entitlement reform and most commonsense legislation to benefit a majority of Americans. As with powdered wigs, filibustering must be relegated to the dustbins.

Webb: It’s ridiculous that progress for the entire country on a wide range of issues is held hostage for lack of 60 votes in the U.S. Senate. Bishop is right. Dump the filibuster and let the majority rule. Perhaps in more affable days, when Republicans and Democrats could actually work together, 60 votes made sense. But today the minority creates gridlock and dysfunction and crucial progress is stifled.