Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Unpopular politicians and Clinton's chances in Utah

Utah first responders recently staged an earthquake preparedness exercise. It was very timely, as the political ground shifted across the country when Donald Trump claimed the title of "presumptive" GOP nominee, having dispatched 17 competitors. We review the aftershocks.

Trump and Hillary Clinton, likely nominees for the 2016 general election, are arguably the two most unpopular major politicians in the country. How did we get here? Is Utah different?

Pignanelli: "Trump supporters are the only group of voters in this nation's history who have been viciously and consistently maligned … by both political parties.” — Oleg Atbashian

Political experts, pundits and hacks are entrepreneurial — and shameless. We are aggressively developing a new industry explaining the Trump phenomenon while ignoring our earlier predictions on his fate. (If we only dedicated such energies to curing cancer.)

There are many schools of thought. Some believe the media gave too much attention to the billionaire and his Twitter expertise. Others claim Republican Party leaders were too timid and late in stopping him. The predominant theory is many Americans are angry and have lost confidence with government and society. The working class is disgruntled with “no drama Obama” and a GOP Washington, D.C., elite who seem clueless. Trump has tapped into their emotional needs, desires and frustrations.

But the Donald performed poorly in Utah, proving again Utah is different (and better).

Airtime on television rarely impacts Utahns (if it did, more would drink beer) Despite the internal tensions over SB54, the Utah Republican Party is not dysfunctional. While Utahns have always maintained an uneasy tension with the Feds, a majority possess a healthy respect for religious institutions and local government. Most importantly, our economy is buzzing along. Utah is not fertile ground for Trumpism.

Webb: Populist uprisings such as we are witnessing are not uncommon in history (some South American countries have them regularly). But the charismatic strongmen chosen to lead the populace to the political promised land seldom deliver as hoped. I think the Trump groupies seeking a political savior will likewise be disappointed, either because Clinton thumps him in November or because he turns out to be a really terrible president.

However, I must admit I’ve been wrong about nearly everything this political year. I’m not expecting it, but it’s possible Trump will surprise me.

Most Utahns do not like Trump, so does Clinton have a chance of capturing the state in November?

Pignanelli: This could be fun. Because of the silly Electoral College, Utah is ignored in presidential elections. So let's hope this tossup lasts and we are viewed as a swing state. We will get all sorts of attention from the campaigns and national media. Otherwise, the only hope for Trump in Utah is his nominal affiliation with the GOP (that dislikes him in return).

Webb: Personally, whether I vote for Trump will depend on how he conducts himself over the next six months. If he can act presidential, if he can show he has a grasp of key policy issues and wants to execute realistic conservative solutions, if he can develop an intelligent approach to foreign policy, if he can show he won’t plunge us into depression or war in his first six months in office, then I would be inclined to support him over Clinton.

But I’m not there yet. He has been so offensive and so naïve or totally wrong on issues I care about, that it’s going to take some convincing. I’m not going to vote for a loose cannon buffoon who gets his news from the National Enquirer and repeats JFK assassination conspiracies.

Clinton is at least a known quantity. Some people who have worked with her in Washington believe she would govern like her husband did and work reasonably well with Congress (better than President Obama) to solve problems.

That said, I think Trump will win Utah.

What impact will the general election matchup have on the down-ballot races in Utah?

Pignanelli: At this point in time, no one (repeat: no one) knows how the Trump candidacy will affect other races. His support is such an unusual phenomenon it will take months of polling and micro-targeting to determine what they may do in other races. Shrewd candidates in both parties will conduct research and craft messages that cater to this angry crowd, who carry both legitimate and unreasonable reasons for their emotions.

Webb: Democrats are loving Trump as the GOP nominee, but I don’t think it will have a big impact in Utah. With the exception of Rep. Mia Love, Utah’s major candidates are all pretty safe. It’s a little trickier for Love because she may not love Trump, but she won’t want to alienate his supporters.

And the further down on the ballot, it’s pretty easy for candidates to just avoid the presidential election.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Convention battles, SB54 and medical marijuana

The cold, rainy weather has been warmed up a bit by all the hot air emanating from the ruminations, conjectures, blame, accusations, defensive statements and intense electioneering as politicians target the June 28 primary election. We explore all the fun.

Popular incumbent Gov. Gary Herbert squares off against businessman Jonathan Johnson after “losing” the state convention delegate vote 45 percent to 55 percent. How does the convention battle impact the primary election?

Pignanelli: "Political reporters keep searching for political meanings in the tepid events of a convention, but it is essentially a human drama and only that.” — William Greider

Last week provided three great opportunities for Utah politicos to taste mayhem and intrigue: the two conventions and the season opener of "Game of Thrones.”

The Republican convention results are fostering questions and opportunities for the two gubernatorial campaigns. Electioneering veterans are confused by the massive billboard purchase by Herbert when the target audience was only 4,000 delegates. His mistake conceded the advantage of the delegate/convention system wherein candidates can focus on a small universe of readily identifiable voters.

The Johnson campaign shrewdly implemented a brilliant strategy. The convention triumph provides him a needed tool to prevail against the popular Herbert. But his convention tactics may not resonate with most mainstream Republicans. Also, as some Democratic challengers learned, it is impossible to attack Herbert personally because Utahns view him as a decent person.

Nerds like me love the coincidence that this season of "Game of Thrones" runs contemporaneously from the GOP convention through the primary election. This globally admired series offers strategies campaigns need to adopt. (i.e. ruthlessly pivot in response to a changing environment; success depends on the use, not the amount, of resources, etc.) Unfortunately, election laws ban the use of dragons.

Webb: Herbert need not lament the convention loss. After all, the 4,000 delegates are the most conservative element of the Republican Party, and Herbert won 45 percent of their vote. The primary election will be much friendlier territory.

Johnson is a solid candidate, and Herbert will need to run a smart, aggressive campaign. Utahns already know the state is doing great. Now they want to know Herbert’s bold vision for the future, how he’s going to take Utah to the next level.

Johnson must broaden his appeal. Throwing arch-conservative red meat to delegates won’t cut it in the primary. His selection of school-choice champion Robyn Bagley as his lieutenant governor will energize the education community against him. Johnson can’t win as the right-wing/Libertarian, voucher candidate with Cliven Bundy-like attitudes about public lands.

SB54, allowing the gathering of signatures to get on the primary ballot, was definitely under fire at the Republican convention. What happens long-term?

Pignanelli: Congressman Jason Chaffetz is a nationally recognized Republican with real influence. But this articulate conservative, who was birthed by — and supports — the convention system, captured 64 percent of the delegates against unknown opponent Chia-Chi Teng. Any other collection of rational Republicans would have delivered at least 85-90 percent. Politicos believe such outcomes will incentivize future candidates to pursue the saner signature process.

Webb: The party bosses and their Central Committee hate, hate, hate Count My Vote and SB54 because they diminish the monopoly power of the party machine and empower all voters to determine party nominees.

Under Count My Vote, the “little guy” can get on the primary ballot, even against a powerful, well-funded incumbent (case in point: Chia-Chi Teng is in the primary against party powerhouse Jason Chaffetz). Under the old system, some underdogs would have been swept away by delegates and the party machine. Now they’re on the ballot and all Republicans get to determine their fate. Mainstream Republicans can now seek elective office without having to run naked through the delegate gauntlet. The party machine can’t purge those not deemed ideologically pure.

As a longtime supporter of Count My Vote, I was disappointed to see Johnson side with the party machine and attack Herbert because he gathered signatures.

Johnson’s message to delegates essentially was: You have the power. You are the party insiders. You control the system. By gathering signatures, Herbert has signaled he wants to bring more Republicans into the political process. We can’t allow that. You must punish him! You must protect your power because you’re smarter than the rest of the voters.

Johnson’s message worked with 55 percent of the delegates. Now we’ll see if that exclusionary delegate flattery connects with the broader GOP population.

Can Utah Democrats win with their gubernatorial nominee Mike Weinholtz? Will the investigation of his wife’s use of medical marijuana have any impact?

Pignanelli: In prior elections, this revelation of drug use (or a civil disobedience arrest in a human rights protest) would be fatal. But that was the past and the anti-establishment fever gripping both parties makes such controversies meaningless. More importantly, Weinholtz is a decent person and successful businessman. All Utahns, regardless of party preference, should be proud someone of his character and expertise is seeking office.

Webb: The articulate and well-funded Weinholtz will mount a feisty campaign — all for naught. He might even win Salt Lake County, but will get clobbered so badly in Utah and Davis counties that it will be a Republican landslide. A little medical marijuana won’t be a blip.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: What happened to Utah's famous niceness?

Although entertaining, the weeks leading up to the New York presidential primary — for both parties — were among the most vitriolic in an already nasty campaign season. Even Utah’s usually tame politics is featuring some hard punches. Your columnists — pillars of civility (well, LaVarr, at least) — explore whether this is business as usual or atypical.

What happened to Utah’s famous niceness? Gov. Gary Herbert was booed at the Utah County Republican convention. The GOP gubernatorial contenders or surrogates are accusing each other of purveying pornography in their businesses. Many campaigns are claiming improprieties by opponents. Some GOP officials are refusing to provide resources to candidates who gathered signatures or refused to sign an obedience pledge. Activists are disparaging each other with awful insults on social media. Is this unusual for Utah?

Pignanelli: “Mudslinging in politics is as American as apple pie” — Richard K. Scher

The lack of diversity in Utah County is directly correlated to the level of wackiness in its politics. Thus, this geographic region is incorrectly perceived by the more enlightened areas of the state to be responsible for much of the ill-mannered comportment. However, their antics are the most humorous.

Gov. Herbert was not the first incumbent to be jeered by his own party (Gov. Michael Leavitt, Sen. Bob Bennett and Congressman Jim Matheson share the honor), and he will not be the last. Extremists on the left and right usually feel excluded and express their emotions without politeness. Utah politicos are among the most technologically savvy, which breeds greater involvement and higher levels of intensity. Hurling insults in the Twittersphere is easy and fun.

Major structural changes in society can also cause intemperate attitudes. Nationally, the realignment of partisan demographics is fueling rudeness. Locally, the huge revolution to the convention/delegate system along with other abrupt forces in our state is fostering impolite dialogue.

So political discourse in Utah will be at higher temperatures for the next several cycles. Thank goodness. Protesters against the BYU Honor Code should not have all the fun.

Webb: Politics always has been and always will be a contact sport. Nothing different in that regard. Case in point: Rep. Kraig Powell, a true gentleman, mainstream idealist and altogether good guy, decided to drop out of his legislative race rather than face a barrage of out-of-context attacks from right-wing fringe people. He just doesn’t want to take the time and expense to refute unfair attacks. He’s a clear casualty of nasty campaigning from far-right extremists.

New communications channels, particularly social media, increase the intensity and pervasiveness of negative campaigning. In the old days, you had to read the newspaper, listen to the radio or watch TV news to hear the latest insults. Today, they arrive on your cellphone and laptop, in your email and social media feeds 24/7, in addition to the traditional media channels. Charges and countercharges are made and delivered instantly to worldwide audiences. And the anonymity and unaccountability of online comments and some social media channels exacerbate the problem. Human nature hasn’t changed, but the opportunities to be offensive are magnified.

A large number of Utah legislative incumbents faced intra-party challenges. Ultra left-wingers were unable to dislodge sitting Democrat lawmakers. However, some Republican incumbents lost their delegate/conventional elections. Those who obtained the necessary signatures will be on the primary ballot, and the refusniks are now out of office. Any local trends here?

Pignanelli: Many Republican incumbents are distancing themselves from the petition signature process in public. But there is silent admission to the important safety valve it provides. The freedom of an alternative to a convention for placement on the primary ballot is very enticing. Relying on the reasonableness of delegates is a bigger gamble than a slot machine.

Webb: It’s interesting that legislative candidate Mike Winder, from Salt Lake County, gathered signatures to get on the ballot. He also encouraged those who signed his petition to go to their caucuses and get elected as delegates. The result was he eliminated his incumbent competition in convention, so he has no primary. Smart candidates ensure themselves a spot on the primary ballot by gathering signatures.

The Republican and Democrat presidential primaries are fostering incredible foulness. Does this end soon or become a permanent feature of the 2016 season and beyond?

Pignanelli: Donald Trump and his Trumpeters flourish on insults. Ted Cruz will not win Mr. Congeniality. Bernie Sanders supporters extol liberal values, but not politeness. The courtesy of the Clintonistas seems forced. So all the mayhem and turmoil on television will be a peaceful respite.

Webb: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the likely nominees, have essentially 100 percent name ID, and have had pretty much all the doors ripped off their skeleton closets. Both have terrible likability and approval ratings. The general election will be further descent into raw sewage.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Prohibiting travel, superdelegates and the race for governor

The national political circus continues to entertain. The New York primary battles are demanding answers to important questions: correct use of the subway, do Big Apple residents have proper values, should Donald Trump have sent a birthday card to Bill Clinton, and how pizza is properly eaten (Frank has a strong opinion on this). But Utahns are chewing on more sensible political issues.

Last week, Salt Lake City Mayor Jackie Biskupskiprohibited official city business travel to Mississippi and North Carolina because of anti-LGBT legislation passed in those states. Utah's capital joins a host of other cities with similar bans. Is this just grandstanding, or a legitimate expression of protest?

Pignanelli: "The truth is that all political and social change is friction." — Nick Hanauer

North Carolina now prohibits anti-discrimination ordinances based on sexual orientation. Mississippi allows businesses, for “sincerely held religious beliefs or moral convictions,” to refuse service to gay, lesbian and unmarried couples. Most Americans are opposed to these actions.

The retail marketplace illustrates the American mindset. Television commercials for everyday products now highlight same-sex couples, because businesses want to appear in touch with the sentiment of consumers in this country. Employees and customers are fostering the many corporate protests against these two states.

Americans have the natural entitlement to believe in, and say, whatever they desire. But these privileges cannot be used to deprive others of fundamental rights. A business open to the public is just that. To deny service — even for religious reasons — to a potential customer because of race, creed, ethnic origin or sexual orientation is corrosive to the core of this nation. Those who promote such behavior risk protests and boycotts.

Victims of state-sanctioned discrimination founded Utah. So their 21st-century descendents should articulate strong objections to intolerance. Hooray for the mayor and the City Council. Hooray for the Legislature and the governor for not wading into this national controversy.

Webb: Salt Lake City is one of the most liberal cities in the country, so joining other liberal cities in a travel ban doesn’t surprise me. I don’t know the nuances of the Mississippi and North Carolina laws, so I’m not ready to condemn or endorse them.

I do believe that, as a general rule, the LGBT community must have protection against discrimination. At the same time, religious freedom must be protected. This creates a dilemma. Reasonable people on both sides must compromise and exhibit tolerance, as we have done in Utah.

For example, a large business that broadly deals with the general public ought to serve same-sex couples. That’s obvious. However, if a small, mom-and-pop shop is owned by people who devoutly believe that supporting same-sex marriage would be sinful, in a location where plenty of other businesses are providing the same services, why not let them follow their principles? Why force them to do something that violates their sincere religious beliefs?

I reject the assertion that such discrimination is the moral equivalent of refusing service to someone on the basis of race, religion or gender. I don’t know of any mainstream religion that supports such discrimination. But some mainstream religions do not condone same-sex marriage. The legality has certainly been settled by the courts, but legitimate religious concerns still exist.

Personally, despite my unease about same-sex marriage and the long-term impact on children and families, I would not have a problem serving a same-sex couple if I was a cake baker, a jeweler or a florist. But if someone else holds fervent beliefs otherwise, they should be allowed to follow their convictions.

As my church leaders have stated, what’s needed is common sense, compromise and tolerance on both sides. It is a fine line, no doubt, but I think people of good will can find that line. Intolerant people on both sides will just want to fight.

Local supporters of Bernie Sanders are demanding that Utah Democratic superdelegates abandon their commitment to Hillary Clinton and reflect the overwhelming support the Vermont senator captured in Utah’s presidential preference poll. Will or should this happen?

Pignanelli: The historical precedent in this country is that parties can choose a president through whatever means they choose. Superdelegates are either elected officials, or party bigwigs chosen by delegates. Therefore they have connections to a constituent base. The superdelegate system was developed to allow these individuals to nominate whomever they think best. So leave them alone.

Webb: Rules are rules. Superdelegates can support anyone they desire. If Democrats don’t like it, they should do as Republicans did and eliminate superdelegates. Personally, I think superdelegates are fine. Those who have worked hard for the party deserve the perk. But in Utah, some far-right grass-roots activists have the attitude that you’re a pretty smart person until you get elected to something. Then you automatically become an idiot and an enemy, undeserving of a delegate slot.

A recent poll in Utah Policy showed Gov. Gary Herbert far ahead of his Republican and Democratic challengers. Is Herbert cruising to victory?

Pignanelli: Notwithstanding the polls, Herbert is still facing a feisty challenge from Jonathan Johnson. State political conventions are strange affairs (especially the Republicans) so the unexpected can happen. Popular Gov. Michael Leavitt was forced into a primary in 2000. Delegates ousted well-liked incumbents Gov. Olene Walker (2004) and Sen. Bob Bennett (2010). Herbert is working hard to prevent such occurrences. Insiders believe Herbert gets out of convention, but so could Johnson.

Webb: Both the primary and general gubernatorial elections will be feisty affairs. It’s a safe bet that Herbert will win, but his opponents have enough money, organization and talent to be highly visible and very irritating.

Despite Herbert’s enviable popularity and success, I expect Herbert and Johnson will face off in a primary election. It’s not very difficult for a well-funded challenger to win at least 40 percent of the delegate vote and emerge from the state convention.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: A contested GOP convention and Utah candidates

Politics has been full of surprises and strange activities in this election cycle. Although Utahns have tried to remain dignified through it all, we’ve been directly engaged (bombarded with advertisements featuring Melania Trump’s risque modeling endeavors, Donald Trump’s bombast, Bernie Sanders’incredible rallies, etc.) in this bizarre election. These broader themes do have an impact locally.

The Wisconsin primary likely assured a contested GOP Republican convention with an unknown outcome. A Utah Policy Poll showed Hillary Clinton could be competitive with Donald Trump — in Utah! How are Utah candidates dealing with these surprises?

Pignanelli: "The only way Trump gets beat is if his supporters morally collapse because of bad defeats in California and New York. They will be like Oklahoma at the end of the Villanova game … nothing there.” — David Brooks

Utah be proud. Very proud. Your common-sense approach garnered respect from fellow Americans. News commentators relished how Utah voters deliberately and strategically chose a candidate who could stall Trump’s momentum — Ted Cruz. Even international media broadcasted the eye-opening Utah Clinton vs. Trump poll results.

The Utah storms so unnerved Trump & Company they responded to the Ms. Trump supermodel ad with an outrageous tweet attacking Heidi Cruz. By failing to apologize for this, and his campaign manager’s non-assault assault against a female reporter, Trump was pummeled in Wisconsin.

Not since the 1976 Republican convention has our state enjoyed such an impact on the nomination process.

But shrewd GOP candidates understand the potential negative implications. Even Democrats must prepare for the fallout from incessant pummeling of Clinton by Sanders.

Smart Utah Republicans will develop an independent image distancing themselves from these embarrassments. They can consult with local Democrats, who have vast experience creating such electoral strategies with national candidates unappealing to many Utahns.

Webb: Since Utah Republicans decisively dumped Trump, GOP candidates here likely won’t be hurt if he leads the ballot. But it does put them in an uncomfortable spot, having to state whether they support their presidential nominee.

Certainly, Clinton will get a lot more votes if Trump is the GOP nominee. But my guess is that by Election Day, Republicans will come home and vote for Trump with a lot of nose-holding.

Utah candidates should simply note that whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton is in the White House, it reinforces the need to reduce the size and cost of the federal government and devolve more programs and authority to the states. Washington is going to be a gridlocked mess, a veritable disaster, especially if Trump causes the Republicans to lose the Senate.

Utah candidates should turn the presidential race into a discussion on the need for balanced federalism.

What is happening in the race for the Governor's Mansion?

Pignanelli: The Gary Herbert and Jonathan Johnson campaigns are deep in combat, fighting for delegates in county conventions. The governor is popular and reminding audiences Utah is leading the country in job creation and economic prosperity. Johnson is educating Utah delegates that many Utah politicians were birthed by challenging incumbents (Orrin Hatch, Jim Hansen, Jason Chaffetz, Mike Lee and … Gary Herbert). Because Herbert has secured enough signatures to advance to the primary, Johnson's task is to bruise him in the convention and create doubts about his strength. So far, the Democratic contenders have been rather polite.

Webb: This is a relatively quiet time in Utah’s election cycle as candidates chase delegates with phone calls, mailings, and large and small gatherings. It’s a good battle on the Republican side, and no incumbent can take re-election for granted in this anti-establishment atmosphere. Still, Herbert enjoys high approval ratings and solid conservative credentials. He has to be considered the odds-on favorite.

That doesn’t mean Herbert will eliminate Johnson at convention. I would be surprised if that happened. Republican convention delegates have a habit of humbling strong Republican incumbents (like Mike Leavitt and Orrin Hatch) by forcing them into primary elections (where they handily defeat their upstart opponents).

On the Democratic side, I assume Michael Weinholtzwill eliminate Vaughn Cook at the Democratic convention. It’s early enough in the campaign that Weinholtz can stay relatively quiet, build his campaign organization and name ID and hold his fire on the Republicans. The barrage will come soon enough.

Intra-party challenges from the far right and far left are plaguing some state legislators. What does this imply?

Pignanelli: Trump, Sanders (and Johnson) were out there long enough to sow discontent that trickles down. Thus many solid conservatives and steady liberals are facing attacks from their fringe. Incumbents that secured enough signatures are not as panicked as those who must face grumpy delegates. But this does signify 2016 as a quicksand year for all politicians.

Webb: The presidential race demonstrates the degree of grass-roots uprising on both sides against the establishment (people like me). Utah displays more common sense than a lot of states, but the anti-establishment sentiment certainly exists here. Still, Utah is doing well economically, our leaders govern responsibly, citizens are optimistic, and most strong incumbents will be just fine.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Discussing the race for president, Utah's governor and legislative candidates

The race is on! Utah’s candidate filing deadline has passed, and hundreds of hopefuls have filed for offices up and down the ballot. That, combined with the bizarre national political scene, gives us plenty to pontificate about.

Republican leaders terrified about having Donald Trump at the top of the November ballot are developing a "Plan T" to protect local candidates from his destructive coattails. Is this really a problem and can anything be done?

Pignanelli: "Donald Trump, and everything surrounding him, is preventing the GOP from talking about Hillary Clinton's record. That is what's so terrible about Trump."--Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal. Combatant nations in World War I believed chemical gases could expeditiously eliminate enemies. But these weapons were unreliable, unpredictable and caused problems for the aggressors — especially when the wind changed. Trump — the mustard gas of the 2016 elections — is equally erratic and the impact of his volatile supporters in other races is a mystery.

Conventional thinking suggests a Trump nomination dampens traditional Republican enthusiasm to vote, but invigorates left-wing Utahns to the polls. Additionally, blue-collar conservative Democrats are behind Trump’s successes. Their proclivities in local elections, or turnout if Trump is denied the nomination, are unknown.

The dynamic of the Bernie Sanders movement cannot be ignored. What happens to the Vermont socialist at the Democratic Convention could be another factor in November.

Trump is a weapon that will be used on behalf, and against, every candidate seeking election in 2016. Savvy campaign operatives will develop several strategies to benefit from, while simultaneously defending against, the Trump (and Sanders) variables. Unfortunately, no one knows which tactic will be effective until actually utilized. Keep the gas masks handy.

Webb: All predictions and conventional wisdom have been upended in this race, so no one really knows how a Trump nomination might affect down-ballot races. But I expect Trump hurts other Republicans. GOP leaders will do their best to “localize” the races so voters focus on specific issues, especially state and local issues, instead of the presidential race. But even in Utah, where Trump is very unpopular, there will be no good answer when candidates are asked, “Do you support your party’s presidential candidate? Do you support his positions on issues?” Candidates won’t want to offend Trump supporters, but they also won’t want to alienate voters who just can’t stand Trump.

The best they can say is, “Well, he’s our party’s nominee. I don’t agree with him on some issues. But we’re going to educate him and use his strength to get important things done.”

The gubernatorial race is shaping up to be an interesting event. Gov. Gary Herbert faces both Republican and Democratic challengers. Will this contest stay heated through November, or does the governor run the table and stay far ahead of opponents?

Pignanelli: Prominent businessman Jonathan Johnson is offering a spirited challenge to Gov. Herbert. The Democratic candidates, Michael Weinholtz and Vaughn R Cook are also successful businessmen without political records. So expect plenty of “anti-establishment” and “career politician” jibes. Normally, Herbert's high approval ratings and popularity would be a solid defense against these attacks. But this Trumpian year offers unique opportunities to “non-establishment” contenders. However, Herbert is well known for taking nothing for granted and will respond with an aggressive campaign until election day.

Webb: By all conventional measures (high approval ratings, strong economy), Herbert is about as safe as a politician can be as he seeks his second full term. But in this unpredictable political year, overconfidence would be a big mistake.

Joint appearances and debates already show Herbert will come under heavy fire from the left and the right. The convention fight could be tough. Restive voters won’t want to hear just that Utah is doing well. They’ll want candidates to articulate their visions for the future, how they will boost the state to the next level and bring all Utahns along for the ride.

Some observers are complaining that too many legislative incumbents have gone unchallenged by the opposing party. Is this a legitimate complaint?

Pignanelli: As a veteran of many tough campaigns, the rare blessing of the free ride was warmly appreciated. It is nonsense to expect any political party — regardless of size or stature — to fill every race. Shrewd activists target resources where a reasonable opportunity to defend or capture a seat exists. Sacrificial lamb candidates, promised assistance that never materializes, usually become embittered and resentful.

Webb: Partisans accuse Republicans of gerrymandering legislative district boundaries to create safe districts where the opposing party can’t even field a candidate. The truth is, no one needs to gerrymander to produce those results. Utah is a lop-sided Republican state and it’s hard to produce more than a handful of competitive districts without creating really weird boundaries.

Certainly, a few more competitive districts could be created. But doing so might dilute Democratic strength in existing districts. Democrats dominate Salt Lake City because that’s the way citizens vote. Republicans dominate the rest of the state for the same reason. That’s how politics works.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Utah precinct caucuses cause for national attention

Utah's 2016 political party precinct caucuses, which incorporated presidential nomination contests, were remarkable events. The caucuses generated unprecedented attention from Utah voters, the national media and presidential candidates — multiple visits, advertising, literature and field operations. The Utah results might even help determine the eventual party nominees.

Sen. Ted Cruz easily captured all of Utah’s 40 GOP delegates. Did Utahns validate the Mitt Romney anti-Trump strategy by voting for whoever can prevent Trump from winning a majority of delegates? Could this change the trajectory of the GOP nomination?

Pignanelli: "Participating in a Republican caucus is like attending a stake conference. Visiting a Democratic caucus is similar to experiencing a Burning Man festival." — Observations from a very prominent Utahn, who dropped by both caucuses, and wisely wishes to remain anonymous.

The Easter bunny came early for local politicos. The campaign commercials and media analysis were great fun. Plus, the drubbing of Donald Trump was a beautiful thing. The concentrated effort in Utah can be replicated in other states to stall Trump’s momentum.

Trump on the ballot jeopardizes GOP control of the U.S. House and Senate and statehouses across the country. A serious response to this threat requires a ruthless manipulation of convention rules and protocols.

Throughout history, political parties and factions have savaged the convention process to ensure the "correct" candidate is nominated. (Supporters of Abraham Lincoln used reprehensible tactics. Thank goodness!) The national Democratic Party, to prevent insurgent candidacies that plagued it in the 1970s (George McGovern, 1972; Jimmy Carter, 1976) installed the "superdelegate" mechanism that exists today. Allowing 720 party bigwigs to vote unbound to their constituents’ preference is a big safety feature.

But as I remind my Republican friends, the pure act of democracy occurs on the Tuesday after the first Monday of each November. Everything else in politics is subject to cutthroat tactics delivered by otherwise decent persons. The survival of the republic depends upon this dichotomy.

Webb: Congratulations to Utah Republicans for dumping Trump. No doubt, a lot of Cruz votes (mine included) were strategic, designed more to deny delegates to Trump than to show affection for Cruz.

So much is at stake in this election: the presidency, control of the U.S. Senate and crucial appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court. Truly, the future of the country hangs in the balance. Facing a very weak presumptive Democratic nominee in Hillary Clinton, Republicans initially had a clear path to victory and just needed to nominate a solid candidate and run a good campaign.

Instead, Republicans are mired in a disastrous nomination process with no obvious happy outcome. The top two candidates, Trump and Cruz, will lose to Clinton. But ousting them in a contested convention will result in chaos and massive defections. Somehow, the national Republican party is in a lose-lose situation.

Bernie Sanders swamped Hillary Clinton. Did Utahns breathe life back into his efforts?

Pignanelli: Sanders’ incredible lopsided success in Utah and Idaho gives him the momentum needed for a push in the remaining states — especially California and New York. National experts note that Sanders' achievement in these two states will help in fundraising and volunteer efforts. However, the affection by Utah Democrats for the Vermont socialist is interesting. Is it pushback against “establishment candidate” Hillary Clinton or the embrace of Sanders’ persona and platform?

Webb: It’s great that so many young people turned out and got involved in politics, giving Sanders his big margin. But I’m still trying to figure why it took a democratic socialist to excite young people — a candidate whose answer to every problem is to increase the size of government, raise taxes and balloon the deficit. I hope we’re not raising a generation that thinks the government should rip apart big businesses, penalize successful people and redistribute wealth. Hopefully, it’s just the usual pattern of political maturation: “If you’re not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative at 35, you have no brain.”

Utah Republicans were also spotlighted for conducting the presidential preference by online balloting. Is this a fad or the beginning of a trend?

Pignanelli: After enduring long lines, chaos in caucus organization and frustration with technical details, many Utahns will be pressuring political leaders for online voting. If thousands of Utahns are using the Internet to purchase personal items, conduct private research and otherwise help in important decisions, then voting should be one of those activities.

Webb: Online voting had plenty of problems, but the party deserves credit for trying it. The Count My Vote movement encouraged the political parties to open up the caucus process, and it was nice to see the GOP allow online voting and absentee voting. Still, the long lines, confusion and disorganization upset a lot of people, some saying they will not attend a caucus again. The bugs in the online process showed it’s not quite ready for a general election, but that day is coming. A presidential primary election allowing early voting, online voting and in-person voting would have produced significantly more participation.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Utah and the 2016 presidential election

It’s a tumultuous time in the presidential election, and Utah is in the middle of the action this week. Here are questions we’re hearing.

With Marco Rubio out, where do his Utah supporters go, and who do you predict will win the Republican and Democratic caucus contests in Utah on Tuesday?

(Pignanelli) "My taxi driver loves Donald Trumpbecause Trump is saying everything he has been saying at the bar for the past 20 years" — Chuck Warren, Utah political strategist

Republican presidential politics in Utah is a dinner party that rapidly disintegrated into a personal nightmare. The obnoxious drunk (who will not leave) is chasing away erudite guests but his offensive antics are popular with half the table. So the average Utah GOP voter has a terrible choice: sit next to the boorish center of attention, a preachy zealot or a wonkish nerd. The situation compels pity.

My best guess (or hope) is that Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Ted Cruz capture the top two slots and Trump is a distant third. Because the Democratic vote is open to all, left-leaning independents and others will swarm the caucuses to give Sen. Bernie Sanders the Beehive State.

Trump on the ballot is a problem for both parties. Local GOP candidates in safe seats should worry that turnout could be lower, or even hostile. They will need a plan to distance themselves from the top of the ballot while maintaining enthusiasm for their candidacy.

Trump’s victories are driven by big chunks of blue-collar Democrats crossing over. So the minority party must have a Trump strategy to protect candidates and incumbents outside the capital city.

(Webb) Personally, I’m voting on Tuesday for Kasich, by far the best candidate overall and the one best positioned to defeat Hillary Clinton. But Cruz seems to have the most momentum in Utah. He will probably pick up a lot of support from Rubio backers. Weekend candidate visits to Utah and last-minute endorsements (like former Gov. Mike Leavitt’s endorsement of Kasich) could make a difference.

It’s going to be very close between Clinton and Sanders, but it doesn’t really matter. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

Will Donald Trump’s and John Kasich’s decision to pass on debating in Utah hurt them in Tuesday’s caucus election?

(Pignanelli) Utahns are proud of our state’s amazing accomplishments. We deserved to host a presidential primary debate. Mr. Trump's refusal to attend in order to give a speech to a PAC is an offense and insult. So a message needs to be sent to the blowhard billionaire. Trump demonstrated what he thinks of us and Utahns should return the compliment on Tuesday evening.

(Webb) I’m disappointed the Utah debate isn’t happening. It would have been great to see the candidates up close and personal in a debate format. But it probably won’t make a difference in the voting. I’d love to see Trump bomb in Utah, come in third behind Kasich and Cruz. Let’s show the world Utah doesn’t buy his bigotry and bombast. I would love for Utah to be Trump’s worst state.

What are the presidential campaign implications of the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate declining to even hold hearings on President Obama’s nomination of Judge Merrick Garland to the U.S. Supreme Court?

(Pignanelli) Americans are the hardest working and most productive people on the planet. Every day, over 100 million show up at work regardless of disagreements with the boss or a customer. Thus, voters will not sympathize with senators’ refusal to conduct a hearing because of anger with the president.

With Trump as the nominee, GOP control of the Senate will be precarious. So why confirm allegations that Washington, D.C., is dysfunctional and further irritate voters? The best interests of Republicans — and the country — are served by a vigorous review of the nominee.

(Webb) I admit to wondering why the Republicans don’t just hold the hearings and vote the nominee down. But Sens. Orrin Hatch and Mike Lee are right that if they do so it gives President Obama, Democratic presidential candidates and Sen. Harry Reid a nice forum to try to score political points in a months-long, divisive process infused with election-year politics. And then he’ll be voted down anyway. So why bother? The result will be the same.

Garland might be a moderate fellow and a good judge. But he’s no Antonin Scalia, and far too much is at stake for Republicans to allow the court (and the country) to tilt further left. Sure, Senate Republicans are going to get beat up for a week or two. But then it will be over and the Senate can get on to other work.

Truth is, Obama put up a sacrificial lamb with no expectation that he would actually be confirmed.