Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Politicos gather 'round the Thanksgiving table

For the benefit of our readers, for which we’re very, very thankful (it’s Thanksgiving weekend, after all), and at great personal peril, we implanted surveillance devices in various turkeys, candied yams and pumpkin pies in select state and national locations. The NSA would be proud, although the ACLU is seeking a restraining order. Too late. We already heard what various politicos are secretly thankful for.

U.S. Sen. Mike Lee: "At my Thanksgiving feast, I’m celebrating the fact that all those moderate Republicans lining up to challenge me next year melted away like meringue on a lemon pie when prominent business leaders got behind my re-election.”

Gov. Gary Herbert: "So much to be thankful for. I’m leading all the nation’s governors, riding a strong economy, enjoy high approval ratings and have a fat campaign war chest. And the LDS Church is encouraging compassion for Syrian refugees!”

Gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Johnson:"I'm thankful for the results of the Salt Lake City mayoral election that show a popular incumbent can be defeated. It’s time to debate!"

Political commentators: "We are grateful for the forgiving nature of our audiences. Even though we keep predicting the decline of Donald Trump and he promptly goes up, people still listen to us."

Donald Trump: “I’m thankful the news media are so fixated on me that I even get in the Pig/Webb column in Utah (wherever that is). My campaign is beautiful! It’s spectacular! It’s fabulous — and the Mexicans are going to pay for it! Or I’ll waterboard them! You’re going to be so proud of me in Utah, even though you’re a loser flyover state of no consequence!”

U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch: "As the nation’s senior statesman involved in every important issue in America, I have a lot to be thankful for. So much so that to repay my blessings I might just need to run for another term!”

Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams: "I’m thankful for a minor clash with public employees as I seek budget restraints. It only helps me with Republican voters."

Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox: "I’m thankful for the magic of mail-in balloting. Voter participation has increased and I'm getting lots of credit."

Congressman Jason Chaffetz: “Wow! I am very grateful this Thanksgiving. It’s been a heady year. I ran briefly for one of the most powerful political positions on earth. And Paul Ryan's ascension to the speakership solidified my Oversight chairmanship. And I get to spend my days investigating Democratic scandals!”

Congressman Rob Bishop: "I'm grateful the long saga of my Public Lands Initiative will soon result in actual legislation. And with opposition coming from both the left and right, I must be doing something right."

Attorney General Sean Reyes: "I'm grateful the Attorney General’s Office is now stable and quiet and just doing its job with no major controversies in sight — in contrast to the last few years.”

Democratic Party Chairman Peter Corroon: "At last, a Thanksgiving dinner when I can feel truly grateful. Republican infighting over Count My Vote, and Donald Trump leading the GOP polls has me salivating over more than turkey."

Salt Lake Mayor Ralph Becker: I’ve had a great eight-year run, and for that I’m thankful. The city is in good shape and now Jackie has to grapple with panhandling, homelessness — and ungrateful cyclists.

Salt Lake Mayor-elect Jackie Biskupski: I’m thankful that most of the hard work figuring out solutions for the homeless population has been done just before I take office.

Democratic congressional candidate Doug Owens: “I am grateful that Mia Love’s minor controversies forcing her to reimburse the government for travel has given my campaign some early visibility."

Congresswoman Mia Love: "I'm grateful Doug Owens belongs to the same political party as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.”

Democratic Sen. Jim Dabakis: “I’m thankful to be the unabashed leftist spokesperson in Utah. I lose every fight, but I get lots of media attention."

House Speaker Greg Hughes: "I’m grateful for an independent House Republican caucus that’s willing to stand up to anyone. Even better, Medicaid expansion is off the table next session and no one can blame me."

Senate President Wayne Niederhauser: "It's nice to be part of history. The meetings I hosted to establish procedures for a constitutional convention could help restore proper balance in the federal system."

State Republican Chairman James Evans: “I’m thankful to protect the purity of the Republican Party brand by chasing moderates out of the Republican tent.”

Prop 1 supporters: “We’re thankful to win in 10 of 17 counties. But the Salt Lake County loss made us gag on our turkey.”

Pignanelli and Webb: We are grateful that we have readers other than our spouses that we force to read the column, and we’re especially thankful that politicians — despite their best efforts — remain interesting creatures who generate enough news and controversy to keep us busy every week.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: No political turkeys to expose this Thanksgiving season

It’s Thanksgiving week, so the temptation is, of course, to expose political turkeys. Instead, we offer thoughts, even praise, regarding some Utah politicians.

It’s Thanksgiving week, so the temptation is, of course, to expose political turkeys. Instead, we offer thoughts, even praise, regarding some Utah politicians.

In contrast to all other Republican governors, Gov. Gary Herbert is keeping an open mind on Syrian refugees coming to Utah if they are properly vetted. Is this wise politically?

Pignanelli: "Life isn't easy, and leadership is harder still.” — Walter Russell

The American form of democracy possesses a superior quality, allowing for calm deliberation of the chief executive. Herbert’s stance is fulfilling this opportunity.

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is an enemy of the United States focused to destroy our citizens and civilization. These violent Islamic Radicals (yep, I'm using the controversial “IR description”) are shrewd, tech savvy, fierce adversaries. Our nation's response must be more intelligent and cunning.

An ISIS objective is to stop the flow of refugees, so slamming the door only plays into their tactics. Further, refusing the entrants provides a false protection since terrorists use other means to effectuate their horrors.

Bone-headed decisions of Washington intelligentsia in the current and past administrations are partially responsible for this tragic situation. So, now the United States will engage a deeper role in defeating the terrorists on their soil. By playing in this arena, we need to deal with the consequences. Therefore, our nation and state should accept refugees who pass an appropriate and high degree of scrutiny.

Leadership demands such analysis and action, and our governor is providing it.

Webb: I appreciate the governor’s position, although he’s gotten a little squishy. It would be easy to follow all the other knee-jerk politicians trying to show how tough they are by bullying Syrian refugees — who have already suffered enough.

Any halfway intelligent person knows the chance of a Syrian refugee coming to Utah and committing a terrorist act is so infinitesimally tiny that it’s laughable. Plenty of scary things exist out there that endanger our families and are worth spending effort and money to fight. Such as: Drunken driving. Teen suicide. Drug, nicotine and alcohol addictions. Gang crime. Distracted driving. Cancer. Obesity. Home invasion robberies. And lots more.

Any one of those scourges is a thousand times more likely to hurt and kill Utahns and Americans than a Syrian refugee. Let’s spend our effort and political outrage on threats that really matter.

This silly debate demonstrates, once again, the old adage that Congress (and lots of other politicians) can do only two things well: nothing and overreact.

Is it noteworthy or routine that Salt Lake City, the capital of conservative Utah, has elected its first openly gay mayor?

Pignanelli: Jackie Biskupski managed the campaign in the same method as she did her successful legislative career. It was all about her skills — and a promise of a change to city hall.

More importantly, it's a credit to city residents and all Utahns that the sexual orientation of Mayor-elect Biskupski was never an issue — above or below the radar. The person who accuses our state of intolerance is the one guilty of bigotry.

Webb: It’s business as usual in Salt Lake City. We’re just exchanging a liberal mayor for an even more liberal mayor. Biskupski’s success will depend, in part, on whether she can develop positive relationships with the downtown business community, the LDS Church, and the conservative suburbs. She’s already saying the homeless problem is a regional problem. That will require working with regional government leaders. She can’t alienate other city and county leaders like former Mayor Rocky Anderson did. Biskupski’s administration will be defined more by those relationships than her sexual orientation.

Utah Senate President Wayne Niederhauserrecently hosted a meeting of legislators from around the country to discuss rules and procedures for a possible state-led constitutional convention. Was this an important and substantive gathering, or just right-wing silliness?

Pignanelli: A constitutional convention ("Con-Con") was heavily debated in the early ’90s during my service in the Legislature. Back then as today, the far left and right despise the concept — which strongly suggests merit in the cause. This never-used process to amend the Constitution is extraordinarily difficult, but has revitalized because of intense frustration with the federal government. The paramount hope is for a balanced budget amendment — which promises fiscal integrity, practical protection of entitlement programs and prevention of government overreach. Please, let the discussions continue.

Webb: Sen. Niederhauser deserves praise for hosting this important meeting. The states absolutely need a smart and sensible way to apply appropriate leverage to the federal government — as the Founders intended.

The Founders gave the states the ability to propose constitutional amendments precisely because states need a tool to get the federal government’s attention, to push back against federal encroachment.

The worry about a runaway convention is vastly overwrought. Consider that members of Congress sit, in effect, as a constitutional convention every day they’re in session. With a two-thirds vote they can propose a constitutional amendment any time they wish.

An amendment proposed by a state-led convention would only be able to do the same thing. Three-fourths of states would have to ratify any amendment that came either from Congress or from a state-led convention. Why do some of the left and the right fear state leaders more than they fear the do-nothing, dysfunctional Congress? It makes no sense.

Amending the U.S. Constitution is incredibly difficult no matter the path used. But putting the 50 states on equal footing with Congress, as the Founders intended, gives the states a much-needed tool. This is not about politics or political ideology. It’s about good governance. It’s about making government work for citizens.

Pignanelli and Webb: We wish to express our condolences to the family of Randy Horiuchi. With his fun personality, Randy permanently impacted Utah politics.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Discord between conservatives, 'liberal media' on national spotlight

Conservative Republicans and the "liberal media" have long been antagonists. But the presidential campaign and the performance of moderators at Republican debates have thrust this matter into national prominence. We explore the perceptions and realities.

Even mainstream Republicans are convinced the national press is slanted against their party. Does such a prejudice exist in Utah?

Pignanelli: “The press does not have a responsibility to be fair — especially to politicians … they only need to provide both sides” — Jay Shelledy, former newspaper editor. 

The existence of a left-wing media conspiracy has evolved into ensconced GOP scripture, so any contrary declarations from me will be viewed as just heathen blasphemy. But I can play the victim card equal to any Republican because two major daily newspapers and alternative publications spent small fortunes of ink dissecting my political cadaver.

A partisan edge does not infect our local media. But what does occur proves the axiom that "politics abhors a vacuum." Major media outlets and other weeklies are fulfilling the role of an opposition political party to fill the void caused by shrinking Democrats. Most journalists view their mission as reporting the news and challenging the government — regardless of who is in power.

Although I still carry scars inflicted by various reporters, my firm is proud to represent the Utah Media Coalition and the Utah Press Association. These journalistic enterprises expend resources and efforts to defend open government and transparency. Our state is better for their presence.

Webb: Survey research consistently shows more reporters are liberal and vote for Democrats than are conservative and vote for Republicans. That’s probably true in Utah. However, we are lucky to have two major daily newspapers in the Salt Lake metro area, one leaning conservative and one leaning liberal. Both papers do a nice job with balance and perspective in their news columns, although their selection and placement of stories demonstrate their differences.

Their house editorials and columnist proclivities are markedly different, with the Salt Lake Tribune reflecting the liberal political makeup of Salt Lake City, while the Deseret News mirrors the more conservative nature of the rest of the state.

I think it’s great to have two papers with different perspectives. I need something to get enraged about as I eat my morning Cheerios. Tribune editorials often do the trick. Utah Republicans know they’re going to get beat up by a Tribune editorial or columnist periodically, but the electorate is conservative, so it doesn’t usually hurt them.

Is media bias just a figment of imagination or a true problem in American journalism?

Pignanelli: Republicans do a great job of providing nasty figures the press can easily disfigure (i.e., Richard Nixon, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, etc.) Democratic wrongdoers tend to possess fun personalities that are difficult to attack and the lefty special organizations usually give them an undeserved pass — providing less fodder to the media. Usually, Republicans come across as meanies and Democrats as kindhearted folks. Remember, tearing down curmudgeons sells papers. Equally, journalistic attacks on happy conservative warriors well-liked even by political opponents (i.e. Ronald Reagan) rarely succeed.

So if Republicans want greater affinity with the media, they should smile and laugh more often.

Webb: Traditional news media aren’t any more or any less biased than in the past. The bigger story is the fragmentation and democratization of information services. Using the Internet and social media, anyone can be a writer, publisher or broadcaster. All sorts of upstart news operations exist, including many conservative operations, and a lot of them are more partisan, biased — and often inaccurate — than traditional media.

Conservatives love to bash the news media but, in reality, the conventional media have less clout and power than at any time in many decades. During the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson is said to have stated, “If you’ve lost Walter Cronkite, you’ve lost America.” Today, no broadcast journalist or print pundit has nearly that power.

Last week's Fox Business Network GOP presidential debate received accolades for fairness in structure and questions. Was this in reaction to the "media bias" allegations?

Pignanelli: Politicos are amused with the recent angst over media allegations against Dr. Ben Carson and other candidates, since we know such inquiries are fostered by opponents. Last week's debate was one of the finest in television history, and the Fox Business Network and Wall Street Journal developed their approach to avoid criticism suffered by CNBC. Thursday’s event should serve as a standard for all presidential discussions in the future. Americans are intelligent and insightful voters who crave policy deliberations and not pointless witch hunts.

Webb: I don’t have a problem with candidates being confronted with difficult questions. Whacking the news media has become a standard talking point for conservative candidates because they know conservative voters love it.

Ted Cruz was obviously playing to the far right when he blasted CNBC moderators for asking “gotcha” questions. One of the moderators should have responded, “OK, senator, you managed to roll out your talking point bashing the media, now put on your big-boy pants and answer the question.”

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Give thanks to pundits, voters and courts for the entertainment

This Thanksgiving season we give thanks to pundits, voters and the courts for making a normally sleepy municipal election the most unpredictable and entertaining in recent memory. In addition, the fun of last Tuesday — including federal Judge David Nuffer'sSB54/Count My Vote decision — has ramifications for next November. After all, the Big One is less than a year away, and it’s never too early to speculate.

A year ago, it appeared all but certain that popular Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Beckerwould win a third term. What happened, and should incumbents be nervous in 2016?

Pignanelli: “Yes, you need substance in politics — but your style also says something about how you arrive at conclusions.” — Charles Kennedy

Donald Trump and Jackie Biskupski are as different as two people could possibly be (thank goodness!). However, these two share an amazing ability to tap into a frustrated angst plaguing their target audiences and succeeding despite contrary predictions from the “experts.”

Because there were no major policy differences, this very intense election was all about the leadership style of the incumbent, an obvious issue for many residents. The Becker campaign tried to force a discussion about Biskupski’s credentials, but it was ham-fisted and failed.

Current incumbents with high approval ratings need to reassess their true strengths and weaknesses or face a Becker-like situation in 2016. Furthermore, Biskupski taught fellow politicos that correct messaging through social media and retail politics is strong enough to overcome any traditional television commercial effort.

“The Donald” and “Mayor Biskupski” formally served notice that electioneering in America and Utah has dramatically changed — in many ways for the better.

Webb: As the saying goes: “Be worried. Be very worried.” No question, voters are restless, cynical and unhappy — and susceptible to populist “outsider” rabble-rousers who rail against the status quo and make big promises. Politicians can take nothing for granted. The presidential race is chaotic in both parties. A back-bencher rebellion toppled the speaker of the U.S. House. A lot of grass-roots voters are poised to vote for anybody but the incumbent.

This mindset isn’t quite as strong in Utah. But Becker was still the victim of some of this sentiment, and also suffered from normal three-term voter fatigue. In reality, Becker and Biskupski differ more in style than substance, and the city will do just fine.

On Election Day, Judge Nuffer invalidated a line from SB54 that required political parties to open primary elections to unaffiliated voters, but upheld provisions allowing candidates to gather signatures to get on the primary ballot. A gleeful GOP Chairman James Evans declared victory, claiming the party can force all GOP candidates to use the caucus/convention system. How does this impact elections?

Pignanelli: The judge opined the Utah Republican Party is "severely burdened” by the participation of unaffiliated voters in a primary because these individuals "do not share" their views. This is an outrageous conclusion since the GOP consistently attracts an overwhelming majority of unaffiliated voters in general elections. But Republican leaders are prevented by current law from disqualifying candidates for choosing nomination through a petition.

Webb: James “shrink the tent” Evans is trying to kick mainstream Republicans out the door and keep elitist activists in total control of the party nomination process. He is also leaping to wild legal conclusions unsupported by the facts, the law — or common sense.

The entire Count My Vote movement (in which I am a happy volunteer) seeks to expand participation in the political process, open it up to all citizens. Evans is trying to keep political power in the hands of elite activists who mistrust the masses.

He’s saying the Republican Party has no room for mainstream citizens who want to welcome independents and unaffiliated voters to support Republicans.

It is going to be really embarrassing for the party when a prominent Republican seeks to gather signatures, as the law allows, and Evans is there holding an ax in front of the TV cameras, barring entry to the election process.

Thankfully, plenty of level-headed Republican leaders, including the lieutenant governor and many legislators, will tell Evans to read the plain language of the law, upheld as constitutional by Judge Nuffer, and stop looking and acting so silly. Common sense will prevail.

Some politicos were surprised over the apparent defeat in Salt Lake County of Prop 1 (which led in the polls) and the Millcreek incorporation win (which failed last election). What lessons can be learned?

Pignanelli: Incorporation activists learned from their losses and launched an information intensive campaign that normally would bore voters, but attracted attention through clever messaging. Many politicos are claiming that Prop 1 was burdened with the bad publicity of the Utah Transit Authority. But I think the issue is deeper than just UTA bonuses. There were enough residents wondering why additional taxes are needed for transportation projects when they were already paying fees for such services. The Americans for Prosperity Super PAC aligned their witty communications of opposition with these concerns.

Webb: Millcreek is simple. It will become Utah’s newest city, thanks to a well-run grass-roots campaign that communicated effectively with voters.

Prop 1 is more complicated. It won in at least 10 of the 17 counties where it was on the ballot, including two large counties (Davis and Weber), and could still win in Salt Lake County with some 24,000 ballots yet to be counted. But Utah Transit Authority, the best-run transit operation in the country, has a big perception problem to overcome before voters will enthusiastically support more transit funding.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Anti-establishment trends continue after third GOP debate

The current political climate is weird and getting weirder. In the aftermath of Wednesday’s Republican debate, we offer insights from two old establishment guys who admit to being rather baffled.

What is going on at the grass-roots level of politics in this country? Why have Donald Trump and Ben Carson been attracting big crowds and winning in the polls while establishment candidates languish in obscurity? Are we finally seeing a turning point in the campaign?

Pignanelli: “There are some people that are great campaigners, like Trump, and some people that are actually ‘good in reality.’ So far the ‘good in reality’ people are not doing so well in the polls." — David Brooks

Because politicos are so confused, I am thinking a lot about this dilemma (which is difficult since most of my limited brain matter is taxed trying to understand teenage communications).

Several national dynamics are occurring at the same time. The post-Great Recession economic rebound is the most sluggish in history. Our social traditions are evolving. The snooty Washington, D.C., intelligentsia is clueless. Americans have unprecedented access to news and information that reveals officials are impotent to effect reform. Therefore, faith in government and societal institutions is at an all-time low. So when a governor or senator brags about experience, he is just digging a deeper hole.

This election is not about substance, but style. So candidates who exude competence but smell of establishment (i.e. Gov. Jeb Bush) are struggling. Trump and Carson mock everything with blatantly false statements but attract support because frustrated Republicans love their outsider status and unorthodox approach.

Webb: I’ve been saying for months that the Trump/Carson blimps are going to fizzle. While the Wednesday debate isn’t going to make or break the campaign, we may have heard the hiss of escaping gas.

Conservative Republicans are understandably and justifiably disgusted with Washington and all things establishment. But at some point, even the most angry, disillusioned, anti-government activist assuming any common sense at all has to ask which conservative candidate can win the general election and prevent Hillary Clinton from becoming president.

Trump, Carson and Ted Cruz would be calamitous in the general election. Clinton would win independents, moderates and all minority groups by large margins and rout the Republicans. Marco Rubio, Chris Christieand possibly John Kasich and Carly Fiorina have fighting chances to win centrist votes and beat Clinton.

It’s time for the bottom tier to get out of the race. Unfortunately, that includes Bush, a terrific leader who can’t win.

Are Democrats also seeing anti-establishment trends?

Pignanelli: Yes, but Democrats express frustration a different way. Liberals are concerned with Clinton’s track record on environmental, economic and social issues. They found solace in an anti-establishment icon who never filed as a Democrat until several months ago. Other Democrats — abhorring Clinton's email controversy — expressed disgust to pollsters. But they returned to her fold when Bernie Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden opined that Clinton’s ethical travails were not an issue. However, they are forcing Clinton to make statements that may be harmful in the general election.

Webb: Leftist Democrats will never be entirely satisfied with Clinton because she’s a total opportunist, not a true-blue liberal ideologue.

But liberal Democrats are smart enough to unite behind a winner, even if they don’t get everything they want. Democrats will be unified while Republicans are still brawling. And it’s entirely possible Trump will spin off as an independent, despite his promise not to, throwing the election to Clinton.

Is this grass-roots phenomenon as strong in Utah? Does it portend problems for Salt Lake Mayor Ralph Becker, Gov. Gary Herbert and other mainstream candidates?

Pignanelli: Utah politics is not immune to this national angst. Becker's philosophies and accomplishments are aligned with most city voters, but many now object to his style. In Salt Lake City, the establishment is performing well but a chunk of voters believes it is unresponsive or lacks connection to their needs.

Herbert and other 2016 incumbents are fortunate to have the benefit of the mayor's race as a guidebook. High approval ratings the year before the election offer little advantage. If grumpy citizens suspect an establishment candidate is out of touch — regardless of achievements — they will flip support.

Webb: Certainly an anti-establishment streak exists in Utah. But it’s not as strong as in many other states. I recently attended a conference on energy and air quality where speaker after speaker talked about the willingness of Utahns to collaborate and work together to accomplish important ventures. Two top leaders of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, in recent high-profile speeches, called for compromise and civility on divisive issues. Utahns are pretty good at detecting charlatans and extremists. Members of Utah’s congressional delegation don’t need to pander to the far right as much as they do. I have faith in our voters.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Political survey results offer interesting beliefs among Utahns

As twisted, demented political observers, your columnists love everything about polling and the dynamics driving the results. Even better, we can always make our observations substitute for an intelligent explanation. We offer our insights on recent interesting surveys of Utahns by Dan Jones & Associates for UtahPolicy.com.

Local Republicans are out of sync with Republicans nationwide in presidential candidate preferences. Jeb Bush fares much better than Donald Trump (61 percent-32 percent) in a head-to-head matchup. Ben Carson is popular (18 percent support), but most mainstream candidates are competitive. Hillary Clinton (11 percent) is losing to Bernie Sanders (22 percent). Why are we different?

Pignanelli: “Every city has a Donald Trump; ours is just the Trumpiest.” — Padma Lakshmi, host of "Top Chef"

Utahns rightfully swell with pride over notable achievements — transforming this desert into a paradise, the Transcontinental Railroad, advancement in science and technology, 2002 Winter Olympics, etc. Add to this list of extraordinary accomplishments the rejection of Donald Trump buffoonery by commonsense Utahns.

When Utahns peel back the gentle demeanor of Carson and discover a real liberal (i.e. his platform includes eliminating private health insurance, free medical school education, more regulations on banks), support for the neurosurgeon will diminish. Bush and Marco Rubio are the likely top favorites in January.

Sanders' popularity fatally wounds the old canard that “A Utah Democrat is a Republican anywhere else.” Undecided (34 percent) is still the leading candidate among Democrats. This bloc, and Vice President Biden’s 16 percent, will move, dependent on perceptions of Clinton’s performance in congressional hearings.

Webb: I continue to await, with most other sensible Republicans, the decline of Trump as the rest of the country comes to its senses. I fear it might be a long wait.

Utah Republicans, to their credit, have resisted the Trump mania. They want substance, not just hot air. They understand Trump is not a real conservative. Unless Bush starts to show some life, I expect Rubio to rise in Utah. The Republican disarray, both in Congress and the presidential race, is the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats.

Utah Democrats’ infatuation with Sanders shows Utah Democrats aren’t as sensible as Utah Republicans (of course, we already knew that). The Utah Democratic Party skews pretty far left (as also shown in the Salt Lake City mayoral race).

In 2012, Utah received greater than usual attention in the election because of favorite son Mitt Romney. Will we be relegated back to the electoral hinterlands or do other reasons exist for Utah to be significant in the election?

Pignanelli: Utah Democrats and Republicans will declare presidential preferences on March 22, 2016. This is three weeks after Super Tuesday and would normally be a moot exercise. However, with so many contestants likely to divide the pie, the remaining handful will view a late March victory as a valuable weapon for the spring caucasus/primaries.

Thus, Utah can expect a number of GOP contenders visiting in the snows of January and the rains of late March. If Sanders is still competitive by then, Utah will be a real battle battleground for Democrats.

Webb: We’ll watch our neighbor Nevada get a lot of attention, and we’ll see candidates come to Utah to raise money. Whether Utah is relevant beyond that will depend on what happens in the earlier primaries — whether a candidate in each party wraps up the nomination early. The Clinton nomination is inevitable. We’ll see how long Sanders wants to hang around. The GOP nomination, on the other hand, could be in play for a long time. But forget Romney stepping in at the last minute to save the party. Ain’t going to happen.

The Salt Lake City poll released last week confirms Jackie Biskupski still leads Mayor Ralph Becker. Is this a surprise?

Pignanelli: The mayor's race is an important election, and not just for who will be residing in City Hall next year. The successful and losing strategies for “all mail” balloting in Utah will be clarified. More importantly, the outcome will set the standard for the upcoming 2016 elections as to traditional media and the evolving dynamics of campaigning. A Becker loss demonstrates bombardment with television commercials no longer moves voters. Utah is trending with other parts of the country that social media, smart messaging and a focus on basic retail politics deliver results — explaining a Biskupski victory and the Trump phenomenon.

Webb: Becker is famous for building a strong grass-roots campaign infrastructure and campaigning aggressively door-to-door. But Becker was caught off-guard and unprepared by Biskupski’s strong primary election showing and he’s struggled to recover. TV advertising can provide exposure and build name ID, but it’s no longer enough to get people to vote.

Mail-in ballots make the election less predictable, so it’s hard to guess what will happen in the final week. Becker does well among males and more moderate voters, but unless they vote in high numbers at the end, Biskupski is looking strong.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Elections, near and far, begin to take center stage

We’ve written a lot about Republican internecine warfare. Now the Democrats are engaging in family feuds. Our analysis:

Ballots are in voters’ hands for the Salt Lake City mayoral race, and capital city voters are closely divided, according to a new UtahPolicy.com poll. Why is this race so close, and who’s going to win?

Pignanelli: “The difference between a Republican and a Democrat is that Democrats are cannibals that live off each other, while the Republicans live off the Democrats.” — Will Rogers

External and internal fights in many ethnic minority communities and families are bitter nasty personal battles. (The bloodshed is especially atrocious within the two clans to which I swear fealty — the Italians and Irish.) Smaller numbers breed antagonistic familiarity and intolerance of personal quirks. We simply know each other’s warts too well.

Such are the dynamics plaguing Democrats in Salt Lake City. Ralph Becker and Jackie Biskupski served together in the Legislature and possess similar voting records. Their friends and supporters share membership to lefty political organizations. Yet the activists in each campaign know and despise their counterparts. The candidates' leadership styles are radically different and a source of pride or irritation — depending on perspective.

Despite mutual political interests, many city Democrats don't want the mayor back. Biskupski took advantage of this with a brilliant primary campaign. Becker now must solicit support from creatures that exist outside the liberal tribe (aka LDS Republicans). His success or failure in this task will determine the election results.

Webb: With little more than two weeks to Election Day, this race has tightened considerably. With a larger advertising budget, Becker has risen from the dead (he was trounced in the primary election), and seems to have some momentum. As always, the outcome depends on turnout (hard to predict in a first-ever mail-in ballot race) and which candidate excels in get-out-the-vote efforts. Becker is rallying his more moderate supporters, while Biskupski is energizing those with Becker-fatigue after eight years. Neither candidate is terribly dynamic, but both are good people. My guess is Becker squeezes out a win.

The Democratic presidential debate last week was relatively tame, although Bernie Sanders was entertaining. Did Hillary Clinton strengthen her position as front-runner, or did she display weakness?

Pignanelli: As a sick, demented political hack, I offer the following: Clinton performed well and dominated the entire evening, which will give Vice President Joe Biden second thoughts. She eliminated doubts as to her electioneering abilities. The two best debaters this election are women — Clinton and Carly Fiorina. Three of the five candidates in the Democratic debate held prior elected/appointed positions while affiliated with another political party.

“Democratic Socialism” in America was a serious discussion. (My eyes still hurt from extensive rolling.) Except for castigation of billionaires and Wall Street types, the Democrats refrained from the mass insults that predominated in the GOP debates.

Webb: While Republicans can’t even elect a House speaker, let alone coalesce around a sensible presidential candidate, the Democrats are clearly uniting behind a resurgent Clinton. Although I disagreed with most of what she said, Clinton had a great debate. Of course, she was sparring with a socialist and three lightweights who barely had a clue. I’d love to see her go against Fiorina and defend her scandals and the many domestic and foreign policy failures of Barack Obama's administration.

Clinton’s opponents have clearly pushed her to the left, but she’s adept at sneaking back to the center. As her Democratic nomination becomes more inevitable, she will become more moderate and appeal to independents and centrists. Meanwhile, the Republicans will continue to rip each other apart, veering far right to win primary votes.

Thus, it is more important than ever for Republicans to eventually nominate a mainstream candidate with great communication skills. Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul would be general election disasters. I really like Jeb Bush and John Kasich, but I doubt they can handle Clinton. Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie are the Republicans’ best hopes.

Back in Utah, Medicaid expansion is on life support as House and Senate Republicans rejected UtahAccess+. Is a resolution possible before the 2016 legislative session?

Pignanelli: As a close observer of this issue, I reached two conclusions. First, every suggested proposal is dead. Second, well-respected physician Sen. Brian Shiozawa will not relent until a political palatable mechanism to fund Medicaid expansion is found. This popular lawmaker may craft a solution that eliminates the state obligation and the coverage gap. If he doesn't, the issue is postponed to 2017.

Webb: Gov. Gary Herbert notes that Utahns are paying nearly $800 million in federal Obamacare taxes each year and getting none of it back. That’s nuts. Surely, a way exists to bring home most of the tax money we’re paying, use it to support low-income uninsured people and cap services and amounts so they don’t grow out of control. Eliminate the risk. Utah’s budget can absorb the required state match if it is capped. I recognize the feds have to approve Utah’s plan, but push them to accept a Utah solution.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Speaker of the House race picks up, with Chaffetz a possibility

Politics can be awfully unpredictable — especially leadership races in legislative bodies. As of this writing (Thursday afternoon), Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz was back in play for the speakership of the U.S. House of Representatives. Understanding that anything could happen by the time this column appears on Sunday, here’s our take on congressional leadership politics.

What are Chaffetz’ chances now that Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) has stepped aside?Will he support an effort to draft Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan?

Pignanelli: “No one in America cares about this ‘Game of Thrones’ contest for speaker.” — Gov. Chris Christie

Chaffetz became well-known in Utah for his strong legs (as a BYU place-kicker), but recent events demonstrate he possesses a really good nose … for percolations in politics. He predicted McCarthy's caucus problems.

Arguably, Chaffetz had no choice but to run. McCarthy’s insinuation that the congressional Benghazi investigation was motivated to damage HillaryClinton is a kryptonite her campaign is using aggressively (the commercials are already airing) to preempt Republican attacks in future hearings. This may hamper Chaffetz’s Government Oversight Committee in the short term.

A dynamic driving the momentum behind Donald Trump are Republicans frustrated with Congress. Chaffetz is tapping into this sentiment with promises to pass GOP priority legislation and force vetoes from President Barack Obama — all music to conservative ears. Chaffetz is often mocked for his love of media exposure, but is also respected for incredible communication skills (a now valuable gift in light of McCarthy’s missteps). With McCarthy gone, Chaffetz will attempt a coalition to counter the other announced candidate, Florida Congressman Daniel Webster.

Politicos agree if the beloved Paul Ryan indicates an interest to serve, the election is over. Chaffetz is close to Ryan and will back efforts for a unanimous floor vote to name him as speaker. This guarantees Chaffetz retains chairmanship of his powerful committee.

Webb: Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives is one of the top political offices not just in the country, but in the world. The speaker is second in line for the presidency, only behind the vice president. The speaker negotiates directly with the president and the Senate, welcomes foreign heads of state — and can even invite the pope to address Congress.

So it’s a heady thing for a four-term congressman from Utah to seriously seek the speakership, whatever his chances. However, if leadership races at the federal level are anything like Utah legislative leadership contests, they are notoriously hard to predict. Nothing is more cutthroat, and sometimes deceitful, than leadership elections. People lie. Even the best vote counters get things wrong. All sorts of behind-the-scenes dynamics occur.

So anything is possible. Chaffetz could win. An interim speaker could be appointed. Speaker John Boehnercould continue temporarily. House Republicans could rally behind Ryan (perhaps the best outcome). A deal with the Democrats could be brokered (although that’s not likely).

Can Chaffetz or Ryan unite a highly fractured House?

Pignanelli: Depending on one's ideology it's easy to embrace or dismiss Ryan’s and Chaffetz’s political activities. But it is impossible for anyone to deny the abilities of these popular politicians. Ryan is respected for a deep intelligence, mastery of budgetary policy combined with a folksy friendly approach. Chaffetz is especially talented with public messaging and building coalitions inside the caucus and with Democrats. (Several times I witnessed liberal members of Congress publicly praise his bipartisan demeanor).

Webb: The Republicans are going to look very foolish if the chaos continues very long. If they can’t even elect a speaker, how can they govern the country?

Whatever happens in the speaker’s race, can the House govern effectively, or is more dysfunction ahead?

Pignanelli: Many observers in Washington, D.C., believe the current political environment is so toxic that no lawmaker with deep experience wants to be speaker (explaining Ryan’s reluctance). Republicans are mad their legislation has stalled. Powerful left-wing special-interest groups pressure Democrats against compromise with moderate Republicans. Ryan or Chaffetz face a daunting challenge and should demand rational flexibility from their caucus before accepting the gavel.

Webb: Congress very quickly faces some really tough debt ceiling and budget votes that could shut down the government. The leadership turmoil throws into question the House’s ability to deal with these issues. Further dysfunction will only damage the Republican brand and hurt the party’s chances of winning the presidency and retaining control of the Senate.

I know the far right hates to hear this, but it is downright stupid to think they can win on all these big issues. Besides budget issues, they and their base back home demand that Congress repeal Obamacare, shut down Planned Parenthood and toss out the Iran nuclear agreement. All this while House conservatives don’t even control the House, which is only one-half of one-third of the federal government.

Here’s a simple fact: They don’t have the votes! Let me repeat that for the hard of hearing. They don’t have the votes! They can’t win in the Senate and Congress can’t override a presidential veto. In our democratic republic you don’t get your way unless you have the votes. It’s a minor detail that the far right can’t seem to grasp.

So if you don’t have the votes, what’s the smart thing to do? It’s pretty simple. Govern smartly and run good campaigns to win more votes. Win the presidency and win a bigger margin in the Senate. Then you will have the votes.

You win the presidency and more of the Senate by being competent, mainstream, common-sense problem-solvers. You don’t alienate and offend voters by shutting down the government, tilting at unpopular ideological windmills, and by causing chaos and gridlock.

After you win the presidency and more of the Senate then, by golly jeepers, you can turn the country around. You can have your way (although if you go too far too fast you’ll be booted out at the next election).