Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Long-term effects of Count My Vote on Utah politics

Last week, U.S. District Judge David Nuffer denied the request for injunction filed by the Utah Republican Party to block implementation of SB54, the Count My Vote (CMV) compromise legislation. The party has said it will continue to fight in court, which fosters important questions:

Should this federal court ruling signal the end of legal and political opposition to SB54, which allows candidates to gather signatures or use the existing caucus/convention system to get on the primary ballot, beginning in 2016?

Pignanelli: "Being stubborn can be a good thing. Being stubborn can be a bad thing. It just depends on how you use it.” — Willie Aames

The maneuverings surrounding changes to Utah's delegate/convention system are nurturing strange results. Bizarre best describes the Utah Republican Party ploy to aggressively litigate against legislation passed by Republican officials. (Of course, party chairman James Evans’ stratagem is reflecting those who elected him — GOP delegates.)

Predictions: Over time, candidates will favor petition signatures in the nomination process, reducing participation at the precinct caucuses. Thus, delegates in all parties will represent a shrinking, but more extreme, pool of party faithful (the horror!). Stubborn activists will demand from the party officials they elected futile agitation against CMV. Sane Utahns will suffer headaches as they frequently roll their eyes in response to such antics.

The CMV bill survived judicial scrutiny because of the brilliant compromise architecture crafted by sponsor Sen. Curt Bramble. He anticipated a challenge and thoughtfully developed a defense against it.

Webb: As a participant in the Count My Vote effort, I’ve watched the Republican Party leadership lose each legislative, legal and public opinion battle as the process goes forward. At this point, it is foolish for Evans to continue his irrational crusade. He is alienating mainstream Republican voters, losing donors and will soon be endangering Republican candidates up and down the ballot.

Republican candidates planning their 2016 campaigns need to know what the nominating process will be. They need to know their Republican affiliation will be noted on the ballot. They need certainty so they can meet deadlines and plan their campaigns.

Evans has had a year and a half to provide certainty by complying with the provisions of SB54. They’re not difficult. The Republican lieutenant governor’s office has clearly spelled out what needs to be done.

But instead of complying, Evans has obstinately fought losing legislative battles and filed losing lawsuits, and still shows no inclination to prepare for the 2016 elections.

I’m surprised Utah’s governor, congressional delegation and legislative leaders aren’t hauling party leaders out to the woodshed to end this potential Republican Party attempt at suicide.

Although we are a year away from the 2016 party conventions, is the CMV compromise legislation already affecting Utah politics?

Pignanelli: Some may deny, but CMV liberated many lawmakers in the past legislative session. Politicos doubt that controversial legislation — especially tax increases and antidiscrimination amendments — would have passed in the same session without the existence of CMV for the upcoming elections. The shouts of delegates are no longer the loudest sounds in the ears of Utah politicians.

Webb: During the session, one legislator told me he is looking forward to the implementation of SB54 because he will no longer have to elevate the wishes of his delegates, even though they are good and well-meaning people, above the opinions and positions of the rest of his constituents.

What are the long-range implications of SB54 on Utah politicians, their campaigns and policy decisions?

Pignanelli: Beyond just allowing for direct primaries, CMV/SB54 provides significant changes of how Utahns select their politicians. For decades the filing period for candidates was always after the legislative session concluded. This schedule provided some (I am trying to be statesmanlike here) dampening of over-politicization of deliberations in the legislative process. Filing — and the gathering of nomination petition signatures — now begins prior to, and continues through, the legislative session. Further, CMV mandates that parties, who conduct primary elections at state expense, must open them to unaffiliated voters. Both changes will have subtle but profound impacts.

Webb: Under SB54, Utah will remain a conservative, Republican state. But political leaders will be less beholden to small groups of delegates — the most outspoken of which are often outside the mainstream — and more responsive to the broader interests of constituents. The new political environment will enhance Utah’s strengths — more collaboration and more problem-solving, reinforcing Utah’s reputation as the state where things get done.

Pignanelli & Webb: We are saddened at the loss of Gov. Norman H. Bangerter. Both of us interacted with him extensively in two different arenas. As a reporter for this newspaper, LaVarr covered the governor's policy and political activities. Frank was a member of the loyal opposition in the Legislature during most of the governor’s two terms in office. We echo the sentiments carried in the media this last week. Gov. Bangerter was a decent, courageous, thoughtful man who represented what is best about our state. All Utahns benefited from his public service.

Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb: Can Republicans ever win the presidency?

Karl Rove is an almost favorite son of our state (Olympus High School graduate and political intern at the U. of U.’s Hinckley Institute of Politics). The longtime political operative created a stir recently with a Wall Street Journal column punching holes in the conservative theory that a GOP presidential candidate can win simply by turning out the Republican base. The winning strategy, he said, is to perform better among Catholics, political moderates, young people, Hispanics, Asian Americans and women. This raises important questions:

Is Rove right? Can Republicans ever win the presidency?

Pignanelli: "The 2016 election dynamic has two forces, unelectable Republicans — with high unfavorable ratings — versus Hillary Clintonburdened with Obama's high unfavorable ratings ... but somebody has to win." — Matthew Todd ABC News

At last, the Dark Lord of electioneering is using his powers for a righteous cause — the promotion of diversity in the GOP. Perhaps Rove is now channeling the kinder influence of his high school teacher, Rep. Carol Spackman-Moss (D-Holladay).

Democrats do not enjoy a great genius at winning national elections. Rather, Republicans excel at losing them. Rove, in his article, destroyed the myth that Mitt Romney lost because too many Republicans failed to vote. They showed up, but too many other Americans disgruntled with President Barack Obama also believed Romney "did not care about people like them." Rove documents the GOP will never win the White House with its current approach.

Rove, and many other pundits with similar conclusions, emphasize the GOP can garner victory only by reformatting (but not abandoning) core conservative principles for a broader appeal. Further, the messenger has to be a presidential candidate that is likable and in touch (a stretch for the current list of contenders).

Therefore, national Republicans need to practice what they preach. Only the application of free-market business fundamentals to their political strategy will expand the consumer base for a White House win.

Webb: Republicans did exceptionally well across the nation in the 2010 and 2014 non-presidential elections when turnout, admittedly, was lower. Republicans now control Congress, three-fifths of governorships and 70 percent of legislative chambers. Republicans essentially run the country — except for the presidency.

The country remains center-right. Most voters are not far-right or far-left. They are mainstream and lean a bit conservative. So a Republican can win, but not an anti-government conservative who vows to rip out the government safety net. A successful GOP nominee must be able to articulate conservative solutions to the nation’s domestic and international problems without being scary. On a personal level, he or she must be charismatic, articulate, forward-thinking, genuine and empathetic — with a good sense of humor.

Rove is absolutely correct that Republicans must broaden the coalition to win the presidency. The right candidate can do it.

Is it inevitable that Hillary Clinton is the next president?

Pignanelli: Clinton was a “lock” in 2008. Yet she lost the nomination to Obama — who did not have enough influence as a state senator to wrangle a floor pass to the 2000 Democratic National Convention. (Yes, her campaign was that bad.) Because most Americans have an opinion of Clinton that is unlikely to change, her political future is a function of competition in the primaries and general election. If the Republican presidential ticket is two white guys with evangelical leanings, Bill becomes the “First Spouse.”

Webb: Clinton is obviously the favorite at this point because Democrats are united behind her while Republicans aren’t close to having a front-runner. But Clinton is old, represents the past, comes across as grumpy, and doesn’t have nearly as much charm and charisma as her husband.

Still, she has the ability to appeal to a broader constituency than most of the Republican candidates. She won’t be as liberal as Obama but will have the support of every liberal group out there, and she’ll raise enormous amounts of money. It will take an extraordinary Republican candidate to defeat her.

Does the situation described by Rove create long-term problems for the Utah GOP?

Pignanelli: Republicans control the majority of the nation’s state legislatures and governorships. But a determination by the party to only appeal to a shrinking political base in future national elections will create a perception of irrelevancy. This could create a vulnerability — at least among independent voters — for some Utah Republicans seeking higher office.

Webb: Utah is a very reliable conservative/Republican state and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Certainly, given the right circumstances, a conservative Democrat like Jim Matheson or Ben McAdamscould win a major race, but only if Republicans nominate a weak candidate. Utah has a plethora of excellent young GOP prospects waiting for a chance at a major office.

If Utah leaders continue down a reasonable, mainstream path, as showcased by results of the last legislative session, and by Gov. Gary Herbert, Democrats are going to have a very difficult time winning major races. Utah’s congressional delegation could help by supporting common-sense solutions at the national level.