What do survey results tell us about the state of politics in Utah?
By Renae Cowley, Frank Pignanelli
Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature.
We are proud of the Deseret News’ 175-year legacy of providing news, insight and commentary to Utahns. As political hacks, we are deeply grateful for the paper’s commitment to frequent polling. We gleefully examine recent surveys.
The latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll interviewed over 880 Utahns last month. 52% approved of the job performance by Governor Spencer Cox, a decrease from two years ago. The Legislature received 49% approval, slightly less than 2023. What does this reveal?
Cowley: Surveys are like inkblots — everyone sees different meaning in the numbers. Headlines acknowledge a slight dip in approval of both the governor and Legislature, but when GOP lawmakers look at the poll, they see steady support among fellow Republicans. However, even their own party has factions — Lyman Republicans don’t think they go far enough, while moderates want more bipartisanship on big-ticket items.
The evidence is conclusive. The surest way to get people to dislike you is to run for office.
The governor’s “Disagree Better” campaign should appeal to anyone who doesn’t believe politics is a blood sport, so why the dip? My hypothesis mirrors what he said in the last State Republican Convention: “You hate that I don’t hate enough.” Hate enough, veto enough, not supporting Trump, then supporting Trump — it is hard to please both sides of the aisle.
What I see in the ink blots of this survey is Utah trending more moderate. This may impact deliberations next session (an election year), especially for Republicans in swing districts.
Pignanelli: “Latest survey shows that 3 out of 4 people make up 75% of the world’s population.” — Unknown
With age, I have become more circumspect (my wife prefers the term “curmudgeonly”) and increasingly frustrated with the “approval ratings” of local officials.
Of course, registered Democrats are down on the GOP-controlled government. The poll indicates 66% of Republicans approve of Cox and the Legislature — a relatively high rating. But it does beg the question: Why are a third of GOP activists upset? The governor and Legislature consistently offer a robust conservative agenda while the state is well-managed. I understand that voters dislike the institutions but have affection for their representative. But is this significant dissatisfaction justified?
I rarely hear a strong rationale from active Republicans when they express anger at the Legislature or the governor.
Thus, I’ll play the same game and grumble at the grumblers.
Other interesting revelations from the surveys include that 62% of respondents supported the new law requiring that only official flags can be flown in schools and on government property. 56% were disappointed by the departure of Sundance Film Festival, and 47% agreed with banning fluoride from drinking water. What does this reveal?
Cowley: The flag survey results have more to do with parents being fed up with liberal values foisted upon their kids than it does with an aversion to nylon-polyester blend banners. Classrooms are for education, not political ideology demonstrations.
Breakups are hard, and the split between the globally recognized festival and the state where its movie magic began is tough. Citing irreconcilable differences, it is safe to say we’ve grown apart. Sundance films have increasingly flirted with vulgarity and liberal propaganda while Utah remains devoted to family values. I’m convinced this is just a brief hiatus in the tumultuous romance between the festival and its first love. It’s okay, Sundance, you’ll be back.
People clearly don’t want to be force-fed chemicals. If someone wants to ingest fluoride, they can take tablets, but with competing studies about the harmful impacts to children, why risk it? I will exercise my free will by chugging filtered, alkaline, oxygenated, fluoride-free water, and others can consume all the chemicals (or Diet Cokes) they choose.
Pignanelli: The high percentage supporting the flag legislation signifies fatigue by citizens with social battles, which they do not want in the classroom. Yet, legitimate doubts exist over whether this concern extends to government offices.
Sundance has a reputation as a “lefty” event, yet most Utahns enjoyed hosting this famous cinematic endeavor. This demonstrates an essential inclusionary attitude.
Proponents and opponents of fluoride possess strong documentation for their cause. But the pandemic eroded confidence in health mandates. This attitude was exhibited in legislative deliberations and the polls.
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Unions have dramatically exceeded the requirements to have the referendum vote to repeal the legislative ban on collective bargaining. 34% of respondents support the law, 38% oppose and 28% are undecided. What does this bode for the referendum?
Cowley: Since we are looking at numbers, here’s a few more. Unions collected over 320,000 signatures as of our print deadline (they only needed 140,000), and have qualified in 23 Senate districts (they only needed 15). In some districts, they are two to three times above the threshold. They didn’t just qualify in the Avenues of Salt Lake; they surpassed the threshold in Vineyard, Herriman and Logan.
Two questions remain: Will the governor put it on the ballot this November, and how will dynamics shift once the Republican campaign machine gets activated? Utah just became ground zero for a labor battle with national implications.
Pignanelli: The signature gathering results and the poll indicate the battle is up for grabs. The winner will be the conveyor of the most compelling message.