COVID-19 has upended Utah’s election campaigns, but that might not be such a bad thing

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb

Although Utahns are appropriately distracted by a major issue affecting their lives, we do politely remind readers that the 2020 election rolls on. Of course, thanks to the pandemic, this may be the most unusual campaign season since statehood. We explore some of the extraordinary dynamics.

The biggest issue confounding all candidates seems to be a lack of attention by the electorate. What other challenges are candidates facing?

Pignanelli: “Voters are looking not just for someone who can lead us in good times but can lead us through challenges and change. So, this is a good chance for voters to examine how candidates are responding to this new stress and challenge.” — Boyd Matheson, opinion editor, Deseret News, Hinckley Report

It does seem as if invisible aliens invaded Earth and completely altered civilization. Everything is impacted, including how we elect our leaders.

First, candidates have an extraordinary obstacle to motivate party activists and voters refocus their thought processes on activities other than those related to the pandemic and the economy. Traditionally, in these weeks leading up to conventions, delegates expected face-to-face encounters with office seekers in their living rooms and at food-centered events. Also, campaign expectations could be altered by a failed or riveting speech at a convention. Those opportunities no longer exist.

The usual advantages of name recognition, organization and access to resources remain. But rallies, fundraisers, canvassing, “honk and waves,” cottage “meet and greets” and any personal contact with voters are now impossible to conduct. Although many will not admit it, political consultants and election experts are unsure how to succeed in this new environment. They are anxiously guessing and conjecturing how to distribute the message of their candidates to secure support.

Responding to this alien invasion is now the primary requirement of a successful candidate.

Webb: Campaigning is inherently an activity requiring personal contact and interaction, especially in primary elections. Thus, a campaign hindered by social distancing tests candidates as never before. This is especially true because traditional TV, radio and newspaper advertising aren’t as effective as in the past.

Like everything else, campaigning is going online, and especially to social media. As an old guy who doesn’t pay much attention to social media, it’s hard for me to judge how well the candidates are doing.

The pandemic has upended the usual campaign processes. Caucuses have been canceled. Conventions will be held virtually. In-person voting may be in jeopardy. No door-to-door signature gathering. Many aspects of the 2020 election have been dramatically altered.

And voters simply aren’t as interested in politics when health is in danger and the economy is collapsing. It’s hard to attract the attention of ordinary Utahns. It’s also more difficult to raise money.

The candidates who are most nimble and innovative will prosper — and also those who start with the advantage of being well-known and well-financed. Namely Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox and former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. in the gubernatorial race.

The pandemic has also upended the presidential race. It will be even more of a referendum on President Donald Trump’s performance, especially his coronavirus response. Trump’s biggest strength — a booming economy — could turn into a big weakness if we are in a deep recession come November. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden can barely gets any attention.

Most of the Republican gubernatorial candidates have already declared a running mate. Are there any surprises, and do these selections help any campaigns?

Pignanelli: Normally, ruminating over running mates were fascinating exercises conducted by political insiders as these candidates could impact convention results but rarely determined the trajectory of a campaign afterward. This year may be different. Because of the new atmosphere, a well-known or uniquely branded lieutenant governor candidate can influence a virtual convention and the primary election. This could explain why only one “LG” prospect does not have a connection to Utah County.

Webb: In recent history, we’ve had two lieutenant governors become governor. So voters should pay extra attention to running mates and whether they are capable of taking over as governor should the occasion arise.

In general, the lieutenant governor selections have been capable people. Thomas Wright scored the biggest-name running mate in Rep. Rob Bishop, who considered running for governor himself.

Are any further executive orders expected from Gov. Gary Herbert suspending existing statutory election requirements in response to the pandemic?

Pignanelli: This may seem morbid, but changes to existing election laws in the near future by the governor or the Legislature depends upon the state curve of COVID-19 cases. Because I believe that Utah will be out of this thicket much sooner than predicted, there will be less pressure for modifications.

Webb: Depending on the status of the pandemic, in-person voting could be suspended. Long-term, the signature gathering process needs to be improved by reducing the number of signatures required. A runoff system is also needed.