The 2020 legislative session is gearing up to be a busy one. Here’s what’s in store

The 2020 general session of the Utah Legislature convenes Monday morning. We make this announcement because it feels like they never stopped meeting all of last year. Usually, internal dynamics of the institution drive deliberations. But this year is very different. We explain why.

What are the external or unusual dynamics that will impact the Legislature in the next 45 days?

Pignanelli: “It is a rare piece of legislation indeed where there is much agreement about the goals.” — Mike Pence.

“The elephant in the room.” “The 800-pound gorilla.” ”The Big Enchilada.” These are just a few of the many metaphors and expressions to describe how the signature gathering results by the referendum supporters to repeal tax reform legislation will impact the legislative session.

Gov. Gary Herbert and legislative leadership are indicating a repeal early in the session. But this will not resolve the lawmakers’ anxiety as to political fallout they may endure in town meetings, precinct caucuses, conventions, etc. Further, budget deliberations will be extremely difficult as the demand for increased services remains (ironically, to benefit many referendum supporters) while expanded resources in the general fund are no longer available.

The impeachment hearings will overlap early weeks of the legislative session. Public perceptions of the results will be a major consideration as it will impact elections. Lawmakers will also follow the Super Tuesday presidential primary on March 3 — which includes Utah — as the potential Democrat nominee could be determined. This could be a source of joy or angst for candidates in swing districts. The very active gubernatorial candidates will be consistently commenting on legislative initiatives in public and social media arenas — much to lawmakers’ dismay.

To paraphrase another worthy idiom: “It is enough to make a legislator drink.” I’m happy to provide lessons to the uninitiated in such a soothing endeavor.

Webb: By repealing the tax reform law early in the session, lawmakers will greatly simplify the session’s work. But the problems of a dysfunctional tax system will not go away, and the problem will be dropped directly into the lap of Utah’s next governor. That’s where it belongs, because most of the GOP gubernatorial candidates naively and cynically supported the repeal referendum.

As I’ve written previously, I believe the referendum was an enormous mistake. It will raise taxes on low-income and middle-class Utahns and take the state back to an outdated tax system.

However, I congratulate the referendum organizers for proving me dead wrong about getting it on the ballot. I didn’t think they could gather so many signatures so rapidly. It is an impressive political achievement — however misguided.

So now tax reform is gone for the time being. I still appreciate the efforts and courage of Gov. Herbert and legislative leaders for taking on this issue and passing legislation that would have served the state and its people very well. This is a step backward, and I especially don’t like the big tax increase caused by the referendum supporters, but Utah is a resilient state and we’ll do just fine.

What are possible “sleeper” issues that could erupt and capture attention?

Pignanelli: Clean air issues have evolved into a major bipartisan concern, as Gov. Herbert and Republican lawmakers commendably grapple with solutions. If a terrible inversion hits during the session, Capitol rallies abound and legislation results. The tax reform controversy may affect whether legislators pursue much needed changes to the reapportionment boundary commission established through a 2018 initiative. Several states recently adopted the 1972 Equal Rights Amendment provision to the U.S. Constitution. A similar proposal is before Utah legislators. Hotly contested 40 years ago, polls indicate most Utahns support the measure. The debate will capture national attention.

Webb: All the state’s big issues bubble up to the Legislature. Proposed laws dealing with mental health, addiction, rural economic development, infrastructure and highway bonding, affordable housing, Equal Rights Amendment, redistricting, education governance and others will gain a lot of attention.

Not since 1992 has the Legislature conducted a session with a retiring governor. How does this impact the sometimes cordial and other times strained relationship between the two branches of government?

Pignanelli: Obviously legislators and the governor will be conferencing on tax reform brouhaha. But because of all the external forces, the relationship between the branches is a minor tune this session.

Webb: To his credit, Herbert is not coasting to the finish. He has put forth some bold and far-reaching proposals for his last legislative session, including changing Utah’s public education governance structure by putting the next governor squarely in charge. He also has broken new ground by proposing to use a healthy amount of state money to substantially bolster public transit.

Herbert will be a factor, especially if he chooses to carefully and wisely swing his big hammer — his veto authority. He has nothing to lose, so why not go big?